AN

AutoNation, Inc.

57
Fundamentals53/ 100
Valuation54/ 100
Upside potential63/ 100
Risk potential15/ 100

AN has the edge over BABA overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and lower modeled downside.

BABA

Alibaba Group Holding Limited

53
Fundamentals36/ 100
Valuation50/ 100
Upside potential58/ 100
Risk potential23/ 100

BABA's outlook is improving, though it still trails on the overall score.

AN Fundamentals

MetricStatus
Stable
Healthy
Stable
Unavailable

AN's profitability is currently healthy, and its revenue and cash flow are stable. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.

BABA Fundamentals

MetricStatus
Stable
Under pressure
Weak
Healthy

BABA's balance sheet is currently healthy, and its revenue is stable, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure.

AN PE Valuation

CHEAPFAIREXPENSIVE8.4x17x25x34x
CHEAPFAIREXPENSIVE8.4x17x25x34x
LevelPEPriceVs current
Cheap5.7x$118-34%
Forward8.1x$181—
Current8.7x$181—
Fair9.4x$195+8.1%
Expensive13x$264+46%

Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.

AN has the edge over BABA in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.

BABA PE Valuation

CHEAPFAIREXPENSIVE9.3x19x28x37x
CHEAPFAIREXPENSIVE9.3x19x28x37x
LevelPEPriceVs current
Cheap16x$69.66-26%
Fair20x$86.59-8.2%
Current21x$94.36—
Expensive26x$115+22%

Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.

BABA's PE is 21x, but its earnings don't support one, so it isn't a reliable read right now.

AN Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Improving
Growth
Stable
Stable
Limited
Moderate

Analysts expect AN's earnings to grow, with its revenue and profitability holding steady.

BABA Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
--
Strong growth
Growth
Strongly improving
Limited
Low

BABA has the edge over AN on the outlook, with more favorable revenue and profitability expectations.

AN Risk to reward

ScenarioChangePrice
Upside+25%$225.08
Downside-15%$153.89

Calculated from the latest close: $180.51 on Nov 12.

AN has a better modeled risk to reward balance than BABA, with more potential upside relative to its potential downside.

BABA Risk to reward

ScenarioChangePrice
Upside+33%$125.09
Downside-23%$72.35

Calculated from the latest close: $94.36 on Nov 12.

BABA trails AN on modeled risk to reward, with less potential upside relative to its potential downside.

AN Earnings Per Share

Q4 2023: $22.74Q1 2024: $21.16Q2 2024: $18.34Q3 2024: $17.41Q4 2024: $16.92Q1 2025: $16.88Q2 2025: $15.94Q3 2025: $16.98Q4 2025: $17.04Q1 2026: $18.44Q2 2026: $21.57Q3 2026: $20.79Forward: $22.25
Q4 2023: $22.74Q1 2024: $21.16Q2 2024: $18.34Q3 2024: $17.41Q4 2024: $16.92Q1 2025: $16.88Q2 2025: $15.94Q3 2025: $16.98Q4 2025: $17.04Q1 2026: $18.44Q2 2026: $21.57Q3 2026: $20.79Forward: $22.25
QuarterTTM EPSYoY
Forward$22.25+7%
Q3 2026$20.79+22%
Q2 2026$21.57+35%
Q1 2026$18.44+9.2%
Q4 2025$17.04+0.7%
Q3 2025$16.98-2.5%
Q2 2025$15.94-13%
Q1 2025$16.88-20%
Q4 2024$16.92-26%

AN earned $20.79 per share over the past year, up 22% from the year before.

BABA Earnings Per Share

Q3 2023: $8.12Q4 2023: $6.04Q1 2024: $4.71Q2 2024: $4.29Q3 2024: $5.26Q4 2024: $7.47Q1 2025: $8.06Q2 2025: $9.27Q3 2025: $7.85Q4 2025: $5.79Q1 2026: $6.57Q2 2026: $4.42
Q3 2023: $8.12Q4 2023: $6.04Q1 2024: $4.71Q2 2024: $4.29Q3 2024: $5.26Q4 2024: $7.47Q1 2025: $8.06Q2 2025: $9.27Q3 2025: $7.85Q4 2025: $5.79Q1 2026: $6.57Q2 2026: $4.42
QuarterTTM EPSYoY
Q2 2026$4.42-52%
Q1 2026$6.57-18%
Q4 2025$5.79-22%
Q3 2025$7.85+49%
Q2 2025$9.27+116%
Q1 2025$8.06+71%
Q4 2024$7.47+24%
Q3 2024$5.26-35%

BABA has the edge over AN on earnings, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.

AN Quarterly Revenue

Q4 2023: $6.8BQ1 2024: $6.5BQ2 2024: $6.5BQ3 2024: $6.6BQ4 2024: $7.2BQ1 2025: $6.7BQ2 2025: $7BQ3 2025: $7BQ4 2025: $6.9BQ1 2026: $6.6BQ2 2026: $6.9BQ3 2026: $7B
Q4 2023: $6.8BQ1 2024: $6.5BQ2 2024: $6.5BQ3 2024: $6.6BQ4 2024: $7.2BQ1 2025: $6.7BQ2 2025: $7BQ3 2025: $7BQ4 2025: $6.9BQ1 2026: $6.6BQ2 2026: $6.9BQ3 2026: $7B
QuarterRevenueYoY
Q3 2026$7B-0.4%
Q2 2026$6.9B-0.6%
Q1 2026$6.6B-2.1%
Q4 2025$6.9B-3.9%
Q3 2025$7B+6.9%
Q2 2025$7B+7.6%
Q1 2025$6.7B+3.2%
Q4 2024$7.2B+6.6%

AN's revenue grew through 2021 and has held roughly level since: $7B last quarter, about level with the same quarter a year ago.

BABA Quarterly Revenue

Q3 2023: $33.7BQ4 2023: $39.1BQ1 2024: $33.3BQ2 2024: $36.5BQ3 2024: $35.5BQ4 2024: $42BQ1 2025: $35.5BQ2 2025: $37.2BQ3 2025: $37.2BQ4 2025: $42.7BQ1 2026: $36.5BQ2 2026: $40.2B
Q3 2023: $33.7BQ4 2023: $39.1BQ1 2024: $33.3BQ2 2024: $36.5BQ3 2024: $35.5BQ4 2024: $42BQ1 2025: $35.5BQ2 2025: $37.2BQ3 2025: $37.2BQ4 2025: $42.7BQ1 2026: $36.5BQ2 2026: $40.2B
QuarterRevenueYoY
Q2 2026$40.2B+8.3%
Q1 2026$36.5B+2.9%
Q4 2025$42.7B+1.7%
Q3 2025$37.2B+4.8%
Q2 2025$37.2B+1.8%
Q1 2025$35.5B+6.6%
Q4 2024$42B+7.6%
Q3 2024$35.5B+5.2%

BABA has the edge over AN on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.

AN Free Cash Flow

Q4 2023: −$163MQ1 2024: $201MQ2 2024: −$147MQ3 2024: −$151MQ4 2024: $84MQ1 2025: −$128MQ2 2025: −$257MQ3 2025: $123MQ4 2025: $64MQ1 2026: −$34MQ2 2026: −$141MQ3 2026: $134M
Q4 2023: −$163MQ1 2024: $201MQ2 2024: −$147MQ3 2024: −$151MQ4 2024: $84MQ1 2025: −$128MQ2 2025: −$257MQ3 2025: $123MQ4 2025: $64MQ1 2026: −$34MQ2 2026: −$141MQ3 2026: $134M
QuarterFree cash flowYoY
Q3 2026$133.6M+8.8%
Q2 2026-$140.7M+$116.1M
Q1 2026-$34.2M+$93.5M
Q4 2025$64.2M-23%
Q3 2025$122.8M+$273.8M
Q2 2025-$256.8M-$109.7M
Q1 2025-$127.7M-164%
Q4 2024$83.5M+$246.4M

AN has the edge over BABA on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.

BABA Free Cash Flow

Q3 2023: $5.4BQ4 2023: $11BQ1 2024: $34MQ2 2024: $3.2BQ3 2024: $2.1BQ4 2024: $10.4BQ1 2025: −$4.2BQ2 2025: −$2.7BQ3 2025: −$3.2BQ4 2025: $1BQ1 2026: −$2.7BQ2 2026: −$6.7B
Q3 2023: $5.4BQ4 2023: $11BQ1 2024: $34MQ2 2024: $3.2BQ3 2024: $2.1BQ4 2024: $10.4BQ1 2025: −$4.2BQ2 2025: −$2.7BQ3 2025: −$3.2BQ4 2025: $1BQ1 2026: −$2.7BQ2 2026: −$6.7B
QuarterFree cash flowYoY
Q2 2026-$6.7B-$4.1B
Q1 2026-$2.7B+$1.5B
Q4 2025$1B-90%
Q3 2025-$3.2B-254%
Q2 2025-$2.7B-182%
Q1 2025-$4.2B-12231%
Q4 2024$10.4B-4.8%
Q3 2024$2.1B-62%

BABA's free cash flow has turned negative after years in the green: −$11.6B over the past year.

AN Total Shares

Q4 2023: 45MQ1 2024: 42MQ2 2024: 41MQ3 2024: 40MQ4 2024: 41MQ1 2025: 39MQ2 2025: 38MQ3 2025: 38MQ4 2025: 38MQ1 2026: 35MQ2 2026: 34MQ3 2026: 33M
Q4 2023: 45MQ1 2024: 42MQ2 2024: 41MQ3 2024: 40MQ4 2024: 41MQ1 2025: 39MQ2 2025: 38MQ3 2025: 38MQ4 2025: 38MQ1 2026: 35MQ2 2026: 34MQ3 2026: 33M
PeriodChange %Net change
Quarterly-1.5%-500K shares
1 year-13%-4.8M shares
3 years-24%-10.7M shares
5 years-53%-37.4M shares
Available history-63%-57.2M shares

AN has the edge over BABA on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.

BABA Total Shares

Q3 2023: 2.6BQ4 2023: 2.5BQ1 2024: 2.5BQ2 2024: 2.4BQ3 2024: 2.4BQ4 2024: 2.4BQ1 2025: 2.4BQ2 2025: 2.4BQ3 2025: 2.4BQ4 2025: 2.4BQ1 2026: 2.4BQ2 2026: 2.4B
Q3 2023: 2.6BQ4 2023: 2.5BQ1 2024: 2.5BQ2 2024: 2.4BQ3 2024: 2.4BQ4 2024: 2.4BQ1 2025: 2.4BQ2 2025: 2.4BQ3 2025: 2.4BQ4 2025: 2.4BQ1 2026: 2.4BQ2 2026: 2.4B
PeriodChange %Net change
Quarterly+0.5%+11.1M shares
1 year+0.9%+21.4M shares
3 years-6.2%-161M shares
5 years-12%-339M shares
Available history-8.4%-221M shares

BABA has 2.4B diluted shares, up 0.9% from a year ago.

AN Net Leverage

BABA Net Leverage

Q3 2023: -0.6xQ4 2023: -0.8xQ1 2024: -0.4xQ2 2024: -0.4xQ3 2024: -0.2xQ4 2024: 0.1xQ1 2025: 0.3xQ2 2025: 0.2xQ3 2025: 0.8xQ4 2025: 0.6xQ1 2026: 0.5xQ2 2026: 0.5x
Q3 2023: -0.6xQ4 2023: -0.8xQ1 2024: -0.4xQ2 2024: -0.4xQ3 2024: -0.2xQ4 2024: 0.1xQ1 2025: 0.3xQ2 2025: 0.2xQ3 2025: 0.8xQ4 2025: 0.6xQ1 2026: 0.5xQ2 2026: 0.5x
QuarterNet LeverageStatus
Q2 20260.5xVery low
Q1 20260.5xVery low
Q4 20250.6xVery low
Q3 20250.8xVery low
Q2 20250.2xVery low
Q1 20250.3xVery low
Q4 20240.1xVery low
Q3 2024-0.2xNet Cash

BABA's net debt is less than a year of its operating earnings (EBITDA).

AN Weekly Momentum

MetricValueStatus
RSI46.8Neutral
Stochastic41.5Neutral

AN's weekly RSI is 47 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 42 (neutral).

BABA Weekly Momentum

MetricValueStatus
RSI38.0Neutral
Stochastic12.7Oversold

BABA's weekly RSI is 38 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 13 (oversold).

AN PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector

MetricANSector medianRelative
PE8.7x18x52% below
PE %44473 pts below

AN has the edge over BABA on valuation relative to its sector.

BABA PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector

MetricBABASector medianRelative
PE21x18x19% above
PE %604713 pts above

BABA is trading at 21x earnings, a 19% premium to the Consumer Cyclical sector's median of 18x, though its earnings don't support one.

AN Weekly Moving Averages

Moving averageMA priceRelative
8 week MA$169.26.7% above
20 week MA$188.24.1% below
50 week MA$195.67.7% below
100 week MA$193.86.8% below
200 week MA$173.34.2% above

AN has the edge over BABA on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.

BABA Weekly Moving Averages

Moving averageMA priceRelative
8 week MA$104.79.9% below
20 week MA$111.115% below
50 week MA$128.026% below
100 week MA$127.726% below
200 week MA$106.411% below

BABA is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 11% below its 200-week average.

AN Yearly ROI

YearStart priceEnd priceROI
2020$49.0$68.1+39%
2021$68.1$112.1+65%
2022$112.1$107.1-4.4%
2023$107.1$150.2+40%
2024$150.2$171.9+14%
2025$171.9$211.5+23%
2026 YTD$211.5$180.5-15%

AN has the edge over BABA on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.

BABA Yearly ROI

YearStart priceEnd priceROI
2020$215.5$222.0+3%
2021$222.0$118.7-47%
2022$118.7$85.7-28%
2023$85.7$77.5-9.5%
2024$77.5$85.1+9.7%
2025$85.1$152.2+79%
2026 YTD$152.2$94.4-38%

BABA has finished lower in three of the last six years. It's down 38% so far in 2026.

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