AMZN
Amazon.com, Inc.
AMZN has the edge over MAT overall, supported by stronger modeled upside and lower modeled downside.
MAT
Mattel, Inc.
MAT trails on the overall score without a compensating advantage in the available component scores.
AMZN Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Weak | |
| Healthy |
AMZN's revenue, profitability and balance sheet are currently healthy, but its cash flow is weak.
MAT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| Stable | |
| Stable |
MAT's profitability is currently healthy, and its revenue, cash flow and balance sheet are stable.
AMZN PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current | 22x | $267 | — |
| Forward | 27x | $267 | — |
| Cheap | 34x | $415 | +55% |
| Fair | 60x | $745 | +179% |
| Expensive | 102x | $1,262 | +372% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
AMZN has the edge over MAT in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
MAT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current | 9.2x | $15.53 | — |
| Cheap | 9.4x | $15.95 | +2.7% |
| Forward | 12x | $15.53 | — |
| Fair | 13x | $21.78 | +40% |
| Expensive | 32x | $53.59 | +245% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MAT's PE is in its cheap range at 9.2x. On analysts' estimates for next year's earnings, today's price would be 12x, in its fair range.
AMZN Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly deteriorating | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Moderate |
AMZN has the edge over MAT on the outlook, with more favorable earnings and revenue expectations.
MAT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly deteriorating | |
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect MAT's earnings, revenue and profitability to hold roughly steady. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
AMZN Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $9.87 | -20% |
| Q3 2026 | $12.37 | +75% |
| Q2 2026 | $12.43 | +89% |
| Q1 2026 | $8.36 | +36% |
| Q4 2025 | $7.17 | +30% |
| Q3 2025 | $7.08 | +52% |
| Q2 2025 | $6.56 | +57% |
| Q1 2025 | $6.14 | +72% |
| Q4 2024 | $5.53 | +91% |
AMZN has the edge over MAT on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
MAT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $1.34 | -21% |
| Q3 2026 | $1.69 | +28% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.34 | -12% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.56 | +1.3% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.24 | -22% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.32 | -17% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.53 | +68% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.54 | +88% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.58 | +163% |
MAT's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $1.69 over the past year, against $3.12 in mid-2022.
AMZN Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $201.9B | +12% |
| Q2 2026 | $200.6B | +20% |
| Q1 2026 | $181.5B | +17% |
| Q4 2025 | $213.4B | +14% |
| Q3 2025 | $180.2B | +13% |
| Q2 2025 | $167.7B | +13% |
| Q1 2025 | $155.7B | +8.6% |
| Q4 2024 | $187.8B | +10% |
AMZN has the edge over MAT on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 14% | +4.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 14% | +2.3 points |
| Q1 2026 | 13% | +1.3 points |
| Q4 2025 | 12% | +0.4 points |
| Q3 2025 | 9.7% | -1.3 points |
| Q2 2025 | 11% | +1.5 points |
| Q1 2025 | 12% | +1.1 points |
| Q4 2024 | 11% | +3.5 points |
AMZN's operating margin was 14% last quarter, up 4.2 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the top of its range since 2019.
MAT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.8B | +4.1% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.1B | +10% |
| Q1 2026 | $862.2M | +4.3% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.8B | +7.3% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.7B | -5.9% |
| Q2 2025 | $1B | -5.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $826.6M | +2.1% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.6B | +1.6% |
MAT's revenue has grown year over year for four quarters in a row: $1.8B last quarter, up 4.1% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 26% | +4.5 points |
| Q2 2026 | 1% | -6.7 points |
| Q1 2026 | -12% | -5.5 points |
| Q4 2025 | 8% | -1.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 22% | -4.6 points |
| Q2 2025 | 7.7% | 0 points |
| Q1 2025 | -6.4% | -2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 9.6% | +1 points |
MAT has the edge over AMZN on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
AMZN Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$34.8B | -8202% |
| Q2 2026 | -$8.8B | -2757% |
| Q1 2026 | -$18.2B | -$10.2B |
| Q4 2025 | $14.9B | -16% |
| Q3 2025 | $430M | -87% |
| Q2 2025 | $332M | -96% |
| Q1 2025 | -$8B | -297% |
| Q4 2024 | $17.8B | -36% |
AMZN's free cash flow was −$46.9B over the past year, against $10.6B the year before.
MAT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $50.7M | +23% |
| Q2 2026 | -$221.5M | +$101.8M |
| Q1 2026 | -$67.8M | -1799% |
| Q4 2025 | $760.8M | -8.9% |
| Q3 2025 | $41.1M | -48% |
| Q2 2025 | -$323.3M | -$53.1M |
| Q1 2025 | $4M | -81% |
| Q4 2024 | $835.5M | -9.6% |
MAT has the edge over AMZN on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
AMZN Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.2% | +26M shares |
| 1 year | +0.8% | +84M shares |
| 3 years | +3.5% | +371M shares |
| 5 years | +6.1% | +629M shares |
| Available history | +8.2% | +829M shares |
AMZN has 10.9B diluted shares, up 0.8% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q1 2024 | — |
| Q4 2023 | — |
| Q3 2023 | — |
| Q2 2023 | — |
| Q1 2023 | — |
| Q4 2022 | — |
| Q3 2022 | — |
| Q2 2022 | $3.3B |
MAT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.7% | -2.1M shares |
| 1 year | -9.8% | -31.3M shares |
| 3 years | -20% | -70.7M shares |
| 5 years | -19% | -67.4M shares |
| Available history | -18% | -61.5M shares |
MAT has the edge over AMZN on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $8.4M |
| Q2 2026 | $100M |
| Q1 2026 | $200M |
| Q4 2025 | $187.5M |
| Q3 2025 | $202.5M |
| Q2 2025 | $50M |
| Q1 2025 | $160M |
| Q4 2024 | $131.7M |
MAT spent $496M buying back its own shares over the past year, down 8.9% from the year before.
AMZN Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 0.7x | Very low |
| Q2 2026 | 0.3x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q4 2025 | -0.1x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -0.1x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.0x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.1x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -0.2x | Net Cash |
AMZN has the edge over MAT on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
MAT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 2.5x | Moderate |
| Q2 2026 | 3.0x | Moderate |
| Q1 2026 | 2.2x | Moderate |
| Q4 2025 | 1.5x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | 2.3x | Moderate |
| Q2 2025 | 1.7x | Healthy |
| Q1 2025 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q4 2024 | 1.1x | Healthy |
MAT's net debt is about 2.5 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), up from 2.3 years a year ago.
AMZN Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 57.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 50.0 | Neutral |
AMZN's weekly RSI is 57 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 50 (neutral).
MAT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 51.4 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 60.3 | Neutral |
MAT's weekly RSI is 51 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 60 (neutral).
AMZN PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | AMZN | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 22x | 18x | 20% above |
| PE % | 4 | 47 | 43 pts below |
AMZN is trading at 22x earnings, a 20% premium to the Consumer Cyclical sector's median of 18x, though its recent earnings include one-off gains.
MAT PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | MAT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 9.2x | 18x | 49% below |
| PE % | 14 | 47 | 33 pts below |
MAT has the edge over AMZN on valuation relative to its sector.
AMZN Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $253.6 | 5.5% above |
| 20 week MA | $254.9 | 4.9% above |
| 50 week MA | $242.5 | 10% above |
| 100 week MA | $229.6 | 17% above |
| 200 week MA | $191.4 | 40% above |
AMZN has the edge over MAT on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
MAT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $15.6 | 0.7% below |
| 20 week MA | $14.8 | 4.6% above |
| 50 week MA | $16.1 | 3.8% below |
| 100 week MA | $17.4 | 11% below |
| 200 week MA | $18.2 | 15% below |
MAT's trend is mixed: it's above one of its five weekly moving averages, and 15% below its 200-week average.
AMZN Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $93.5 | $158.6 | +70% |
| 2021 | $158.6 | $171.1 | +7.8% |
| 2022 | $171.1 | $85.3 | -50% |
| 2023 | $85.3 | $151.9 | +78% |
| 2024 | $151.9 | $223.8 | +47% |
| 2025 | $223.8 | $232.5 | +3.9% |
| 2026 YTD | $232.5 | $267.4 | +15% |
AMZN has the edge over MAT on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
MAT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $13.8 | $17.5 | +27% |
| 2021 | $17.5 | $20.7 | +18% |
| 2022 | $20.7 | $16.9 | -18% |
| 2023 | $16.9 | $18.9 | +12% |
| 2024 | $18.9 | $18.0 | -4.9% |
| 2025 | $18.0 | $20.3 | +13% |
| 2026 YTD | $20.3 | $15.5 | -23% |
MAT has finished higher in four of the last six years. It's down 23% so far in 2026.