AMZN
Amazon.com, Inc.
AMZN has the edge over GPK overall, supported by stronger modeled upside and lower modeled downside.
GPK
Graphic Packaging Holding Company
GPK trails on the overall score without a compensating advantage in the available component scores.
AMZN Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Weak | |
| Healthy |
AMZN's revenue, profitability and balance sheet are currently healthy, but its cash flow is weak.
GPK Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| Weak |
GPK's cash flow is currently healthy, and its revenue and profitability are stable, but its balance sheet is weak.
AMZN PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current | 22x | $267 | — |
| Forward | 27x | $267 | — |
| Cheap | 34x | $415 | +55% |
| Fair | 60x | $745 | +179% |
| Expensive | 102x | $1,262 | +372% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
AMZN has the edge over GPK in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
GPK PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 11x | $2.73 | -75% |
| Forward | 12x | $10.79 | — |
| Fair | 14x | $3.54 | -67% |
| Expensive | 27x | $6.70 | -38% |
| Current | 43x | $10.79 | — |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
GPK's PE is in its expensive range at 43x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 12x next year's earnings, in its cheap range.
AMZN Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly deteriorating | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for AMZN, with profitability improving.
GPK Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Growth | |
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect GPK's earnings to grow, with its revenue and profitability holding steady. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
AMZN Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $9.87 | -20% |
| Q3 2026 | $12.37 | +75% |
| Q2 2026 | $12.43 | +89% |
| Q1 2026 | $8.36 | +36% |
| Q4 2025 | $7.17 | +30% |
| Q3 2025 | $7.08 | +52% |
| Q2 2025 | $6.56 | +57% |
| Q1 2025 | $6.14 | +72% |
| Q4 2024 | $5.53 | +91% |
AMZN has the edge over GPK on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
GPK Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $0.89 | +257% |
| Q3 2026 | $0.25 | -85% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.66 | -63% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.92 | -55% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.48 | -31% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.70 | -27% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.77 | -24% |
| Q1 2025 | $2.05 | -6.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.16 | -7.7% |
GPK's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $0.25 over the past year, against $2.34 in late 2023.
AMZN Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $201.9B | +12% |
| Q2 2026 | $200.6B | +20% |
| Q1 2026 | $181.5B | +17% |
| Q4 2025 | $213.4B | +14% |
| Q3 2025 | $180.2B | +13% |
| Q2 2025 | $167.7B | +13% |
| Q1 2025 | $155.7B | +8.6% |
| Q4 2024 | $187.8B | +10% |
AMZN has the edge over GPK on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 14% | +4.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 14% | +2.3 points |
| Q1 2026 | 13% | +1.3 points |
| Q4 2025 | 12% | +0.4 points |
| Q3 2025 | 9.7% | -1.3 points |
| Q2 2025 | 11% | +1.5 points |
| Q1 2025 | 12% | +1.1 points |
| Q4 2024 | 11% | +3.5 points |
AMZN has the edge over GPK on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
GPK Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $2.2B | +0.1% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.2B | -0.7% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.2B | +1.7% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.1B | +0.4% |
| Q3 2025 | $2.2B | -1.2% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.2B | -1.5% |
| Q1 2025 | $2.1B | -6.2% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.1B | -6.8% |
GPK's revenue grew through 2024 and has held roughly level since: $2.2B last quarter, about level with the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 4.6% | -6.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 4.3% | -4.4 points |
| Q1 2026 | 0.9% | -9.5 points |
| Q4 2025 | 7.4% | -4 points |
| Q3 2025 | 11% | -1.9 points |
| Q2 2025 | 8.8% | -5.7 points |
| Q1 2025 | 10% | -1.9 points |
| Q4 2024 | 11% | -1.5 points |
GPK's operating margin was 4.6% last quarter, down 6.1 points from the same quarter a year ago.
AMZN Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$34.8B | -8202% |
| Q2 2026 | -$8.8B | -2757% |
| Q1 2026 | -$18.2B | -$10.2B |
| Q4 2025 | $14.9B | -16% |
| Q3 2025 | $430M | -87% |
| Q2 2025 | $332M | -96% |
| Q1 2025 | -$8B | -297% |
| Q4 2024 | $17.8B | -36% |
AMZN's free cash flow was −$46.9B over the past year, against $10.6B the year before.
GPK Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $250M | +10% |
| Q2 2026 | $158M | -41% |
| Q1 2026 | -$113M | +$61M |
| Q4 2025 | $521M | +6.5% |
| Q3 2025 | $227M | +21% |
| Q2 2025 | $267M | +66% |
| Q1 2025 | -$174M | -5900% |
| Q4 2024 | $489M | +11% |
GPK has the edge over AMZN on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
AMZN Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.2% | +26M shares |
| 1 year | +0.8% | +84M shares |
| 3 years | +3.5% | +371M shares |
| 5 years | +6.1% | +629M shares |
| Available history | +8.2% | +829M shares |
AMZN has 10.9B diluted shares, up 0.8% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q1 2024 | — |
| Q4 2023 | — |
| Q3 2023 | — |
| Q2 2023 | — |
| Q1 2023 | — |
| Q4 2022 | — |
| Q3 2022 | — |
| Q2 2022 | $3.3B |
GPK Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.1% | +300K shares |
| 1 year | -0.2% | -600K shares |
| 3 years | -3.9% | -12.2M shares |
| 5 years | -3.9% | -12M shares |
| Available history | +0.7% | +2.2M shares |
GPK has the edge over AMZN on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | $40M |
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q3 2024 | — |
| Q2 2024 | $200M |
| Q1 2024 | — |
| Q4 2023 | $17M |
AMZN Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 0.7x | Very low |
| Q2 2026 | 0.3x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q4 2025 | -0.1x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -0.1x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.0x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.1x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -0.2x | Net Cash |
AMZN has the edge over GPK on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
GPK Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 5.4x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 5.1x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 4.9x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 4.0x | Elevated |
| Q3 2025 | 4.1x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 3.9x | Elevated |
| Q1 2025 | 3.5x | Elevated |
| Q4 2024 | 3.0x | Elevated |
GPK's net debt is about 5.4 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), up from 4.1 years a year ago.
AMZN Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 57.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 50.0 | Neutral |
AMZN's weekly RSI is 57 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 50 (neutral).
GPK Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 52.2 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 53.3 | Neutral |
GPK's weekly RSI is 52 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 53 (neutral).
AMZN PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | AMZN | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 22x | 18x | 20% above |
| PE % | 4 | 47 | 43 pts below |
AMZN has the edge over GPK on valuation relative to its sector.
GPK PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | GPK | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 43x | 18x | 140% above |
| PE % | 100 | 47 | 53 pts above |
GPK is trading at 43x earnings, a 140% premium to the Consumer Cyclical sector's median of 18x.
AMZN Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $253.6 | 5.5% above |
| 20 week MA | $254.9 | 4.9% above |
| 50 week MA | $242.5 | 10% above |
| 100 week MA | $229.6 | 17% above |
| 200 week MA | $191.4 | 40% above |
AMZN has the edge over GPK on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
GPK Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $9.35 | 15% above |
| 20 week MA | $10.2 | 5.4% above |
| 50 week MA | $11.3 | 4.7% below |
| 100 week MA | $17.0 | 37% below |
| 200 week MA | $21.4 | 50% below |
GPK has bounced recently, but its long-term trend is still down: it's above its 8- and 20-week averages, but 50% below its 200-week average.
AMZN Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $93.5 | $158.6 | +70% |
| 2021 | $158.6 | $171.1 | +7.8% |
| 2022 | $171.1 | $85.3 | -50% |
| 2023 | $85.3 | $151.9 | +78% |
| 2024 | $151.9 | $223.8 | +47% |
| 2025 | $223.8 | $232.5 | +3.9% |
| 2026 YTD | $232.5 | $267.4 | +15% |
AMZN has the edge over GPK on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
GPK Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $16.7 | $16.9 | +1.4% |
| 2021 | $16.9 | $18.7 | +10% |
| 2022 | $18.7 | $22.2 | +19% |
| 2023 | $22.2 | $24.7 | +11% |
| 2024 | $24.7 | $27.5 | +11% |
| 2025 | $27.5 | $15.2 | -45% |
| 2026 YTD | $15.2 | $10.8 | -29% |
GPK has finished higher in five of the last six years. It's down 29% so far in 2026.