AMSF
AMERISAFE, Inc.
AMSF offers stronger valuation, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
MS
Morgan Stanley
MS has the edge over AMSF overall, supported by stronger modeled upside and stronger fundamentals.
AMSF Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
AMSF's revenue and profitability are currently stable. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like AMSF.
MS Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
MS's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like MS.
AMSF PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current | 9x | $19.32 | — |
| Forward | 10x | $19.32 | — |
| Cheap | 12x | $26.07 | +35% |
| Fair | 15x | $31.51 | +63% |
| Expensive | 18x | $38.29 | +98% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
AMSF has the edge over MS in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
MS PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 11x | $134 | -29% |
| Fair | 14x | $178 | -5.7% |
| Forward | 14x | $189 | — |
| Current | 15x | $189 | — |
| Expensive | 18x | $223 | +18% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MS's PE is in its fair range at 15x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 14x next year's earnings.
AMSF Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Deteriorating | |
| Decline | |
| Stable | |
| Strongly weakening | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect AMSF's earnings and profitability to decline, with its revenue holding steady.
MS Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
MS has the edge over AMSF on the outlook, with more favorable valuation and earnings expectations.
AMSF Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $1.87 | -13% |
| Q3 2026 | $2.15 | -18% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.48 | -6.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.43 | -2% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.47 | -15% |
| Q3 2025 | $2.61 | -18% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.64 | -11% |
| Q1 2025 | $2.48 | -23% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.89 | -11% |
AMSF's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $2.15 over the past year, against $4.91 in early 2021.
MS Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $13.39 | +6.3% |
| Q3 2026 | $12.60 | +29% |
| Q2 2026 | $12.37 | +40% |
| Q1 2026 | $11.04 | +29% |
| Q4 2025 | $10.21 | +28% |
| Q3 2025 | $9.76 | +48% |
| Q2 2025 | $8.84 | +45% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.53 | +55% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.95 | +53% |
MS has the edge over AMSF on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
AMSF Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $79.8M | -2.6% |
| Q2 2026 | $92M | +13% |
| Q1 2026 | $80.1M | +10% |
| Q4 2025 | $81.6M | +10% |
| Q3 2025 | $82M | +4.2% |
| Q2 2025 | $81.1M | +6.9% |
| Q1 2025 | $72.6M | -9.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $74M | -7.6% |
AMSF's revenue has picked up after four years of holding roughly level: $80M last quarter, down 2.6% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 11% | -10 points |
| Q2 2026 | 20% | -1.7 points |
| Q1 2026 | 13% | -2.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 16% | -7.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 21% | -1.3 points |
| Q2 2025 | 22% | +3.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 15% | -10 points |
| Q4 2024 | 23% | -7.2 points |
AMSF's operating margin was 11% last quarter, down 10 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the bottom of its range since 2019.
MS Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.3B | +12% |
| Q2 2026 | $21.3B | +27% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.6B | +16% |
| Q4 2025 | $17.9B | +10% |
| Q3 2025 | $18.2B | +18% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.8B | +12% |
| Q1 2025 | $17.7B | +17% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | +26% |
MS has the edge over AMSF on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 32% | -1.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 34% | +6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 34% | +2.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 32% | +2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 33% | +5.6 points |
| Q2 2025 | 28% | +0.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 31% | +2.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 30% | +14 points |
MS has the edge over AMSF on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
AMSF Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $2.8M | -71% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.8M | +$11.3M |
| Q1 2026 | -$2.7M | -$930K |
| Q4 2025 | $10.5M | -3.4% |
| Q3 2025 | $9.8M | +16% |
| Q2 2025 | -$9.5M | -$6.9M |
| Q1 2025 | -$1.8M | -127% |
| Q4 2024 | $10.8M | +174% |
AMSF has the edge over MS on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
MS Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$46B | -$42.7B |
| Q2 2026 | -$2.7B | -123% |
| Q1 2026 | -$7.1B | +$16.9B |
| Q4 2025 | -$2.4B | -120% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.3B | +$14B |
| Q2 2025 | $11.8B | +368% |
| Q1 2025 | -$24B | -650% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.8B | +$29.6B |
MS's free cash flow was −$58.3B over the past year, against −$3.7B the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
AMSF Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.3% | -62.3K shares |
| 1 year | -2.3% | -432K shares |
| 3 years | -3% | -584K shares |
| 5 years | -4% | -768K shares |
| Available history | -3.6% | -689K shares |
AMSF has the edge over MS on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
MS Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.2% | -3M shares |
| 1 year | -1.5% | -24M shares |
| 3 years | -4.7% | -77M shares |
| 5 years | -14% | -246M shares |
| Available history | -4.5% | -74M shares |
MS has 1.6B diluted shares, down 1.5% from a year ago.
AMSF Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.8x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -1.1x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.6x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -1.0x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -0.9x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.8x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.7x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -0.6x | Net Cash |
AMSF has the edge over MS on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
MS Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 7.8x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 7.3x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 8.2x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 8.6x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 8.4x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 7.9x | High |
MS's net debt is about 7.8 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 8.4 years a year ago. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
AMSF Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 24.6 | Oversold |
| Stochastic | 1.7 | Oversold |
AMSF's weekly RSI is 25 (oversold) and its Stochastic is 2 (oversold).
MS Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 45.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 18.7 | Oversold |
MS's weekly RSI is 45 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 19 (oversold).
AMSF PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | AMSF | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 9x | 13x | 31% below |
| PE % | 0 | 63 | 63 pts below |
AMSF has the edge over MS on valuation relative to its sector.
MS PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | MS | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 15x | 13x | 15% above |
| PE % | 59 | 63 | 4 pts below |
MS is trading at 15x earnings, a 15% premium to the Financial Services sector's median of 13x.
AMSF Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $22.9 | 15% below |
| 20 week MA | $26.5 | 27% below |
| 50 week MA | $31.3 | 38% below |
| 100 week MA | $38.9 | 50% below |
| 200 week MA | $44.7 | 57% below |
AMSF is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 57% below its 200-week average.
MS Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $186.5 | 1.5% above |
| 20 week MA | $203.3 | 6.9% below |
| 50 week MA | $191.9 | 1.4% below |
| 100 week MA | $164.9 | 15% above |
| 200 week MA | $129.3 | 46% above |
MS has the edge over AMSF on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
AMSF Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $65.7 | $57.2 | -13% |
| 2021 | $57.2 | $51.6 | -9.8% |
| 2022 | $51.6 | $53.3 | +3.3% |
| 2023 | $53.3 | $46.8 | -12% |
| 2024 | $46.8 | $51.6 | +10% |
| 2025 | $51.6 | $38.5 | -25% |
| 2026 YTD | $38.5 | $19.3 | -50% |
AMSF has finished lower in four of the last six years. It's down 50% so far in 2026.
MS Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $51.1 | $68.1 | +33% |
| 2021 | $68.1 | $99.3 | +46% |
| 2022 | $99.3 | $86.1 | -13% |
| 2023 | $86.1 | $93.3 | +8.3% |
| 2024 | $93.3 | $126.8 | +36% |
| 2025 | $126.8 | $181.9 | +43% |
| 2026 YTD | $181.9 | $189.2 | +4% |
MS has the edge over AMSF on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.