AMSF
AMERISAFE, Inc.
AMSF's fundamentals are mixed, but it looks cheap: trading at 9.0x earnings, below its usual 15x. Analysts expect earnings to decline.
AMSF Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
AMSF's revenue and profitability are currently stable. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like AMSF.
AMSF PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current | 9x | $19.32 | — |
| Forward | 10x | $19.32 | — |
| Cheap | 12x | $26.07 | +35% |
| Fair | 15x | $31.51 | +63% |
| Expensive | 18x | $38.29 | +98% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
AMSF's PE is in its cheap range at 9.0x. Analysts expect earnings to fall, which would put today's price at 10x next year's earnings.
AMSF Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Deteriorating | |
| Decline | |
| Stable | |
| Strongly weakening | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect AMSF's earnings and profitability to decline, with its revenue holding steady.
AMSF Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $1.87 | -13% |
| Q3 2026 | $2.15 | -18% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.48 | -6.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.43 | -2% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.47 | -15% |
| Q3 2025 | $2.61 | -18% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.64 | -11% |
| Q1 2025 | $2.48 | -23% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.89 | -11% |
AMSF's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $2.15 over the past year, against $4.91 in early 2021.
AMSF Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $79.8M | -2.6% |
| Q2 2026 | $92M | +13% |
| Q1 2026 | $80.1M | +10% |
| Q4 2025 | $81.6M | +10% |
| Q3 2025 | $82M | +4.2% |
| Q2 2025 | $81.1M | +6.9% |
| Q1 2025 | $72.6M | -9.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $74M | -7.6% |
AMSF's revenue has picked up after four years of holding roughly level: $80M last quarter, down 2.6% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 11% | -10 points |
| Q2 2026 | 20% | -1.7 points |
| Q1 2026 | 13% | -2.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 16% | -7.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 21% | -1.3 points |
| Q2 2025 | 22% | +3.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 15% | -10 points |
| Q4 2024 | 23% | -7.2 points |
AMSF's operating margin was 11% last quarter, down 10 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the bottom of its range since 2019.
AMSF Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $2.8M | -71% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.8M | +$11.3M |
| Q1 2026 | -$2.7M | -$930K |
| Q4 2025 | $10.5M | -3.4% |
| Q3 2025 | $9.8M | +16% |
| Q2 2025 | -$9.5M | -$6.9M |
| Q1 2025 | -$1.8M | -127% |
| Q4 2024 | $10.8M | +174% |
AMSF's free cash flow was $12M over the past year, up 33% from the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like AMSF.
AMSF Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.3% | -62.3K shares |
| 1 year | -2.3% | -432K shares |
| 3 years | -3% | -584K shares |
| 5 years | -4% | -768K shares |
| Available history | -3.6% | -689K shares |
AMSF has 19M diluted shares, down 2.3% from a year ago.
AMSF Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.8x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -1.1x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.6x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -1.0x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -0.9x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.8x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.7x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -0.6x | Net Cash |
AMSF has more cash than debt. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like AMSF.
AMSF Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 24.6 | Oversold |
| Stochastic | 1.7 | Oversold |
AMSF's weekly RSI is 25 (oversold) and its Stochastic is 2 (oversold).
AMSF PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | AMSF | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 9x | 13x | 31% below |
| PE % | 0 | 63 | 63 pts below |
AMSF is trading at 9.0x earnings, a 31% discount to the Financial Services sector's median of 13x.
AMSF Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $22.9 | 15% below |
| 20 week MA | $26.5 | 27% below |
| 50 week MA | $31.3 | 38% below |
| 100 week MA | $38.9 | 50% below |
| 200 week MA | $44.7 | 57% below |
AMSF is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 57% below its 200-week average.
AMSF Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $65.7 | $57.2 | -13% |
| 2021 | $57.2 | $51.6 | -9.8% |
| 2022 | $51.6 | $53.3 | +3.3% |
| 2023 | $53.3 | $46.8 | -12% |
| 2024 | $46.8 | $51.6 | +10% |
| 2025 | $51.6 | $38.5 | -25% |
| 2026 YTD | $38.5 | $19.3 | -50% |
AMSF has finished lower in four of the last six years. It's down 50% so far in 2026.