AMRC
Ameresco, Inc.
AMRC offers stronger valuation, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
CAT
Caterpillar Inc.
CAT has the edge over AMRC overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and lower modeled downside.
AMRC Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| Weak | |
| Weak |
AMRC's revenue and profitability are currently stable, but its cash flow and balance sheet are weak.
CAT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
CAT's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
AMRC PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 14x | $25.89 | — |
| Cheap | 23x | $17.56 | -32% |
| Fair | 32x | $24.21 | -6.5% |
| Current | 34x | $25.89 | — |
| Expensive | 46x | $34.96 | +35% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
AMRC's PE is in its fair range at 34x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 14x next year's earnings, in its cheap range.
CAT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 15x | $380 | -37% |
| Fair | 18x | $461 | -24% |
| Forward | 20x | $605 | — |
| Current | 24x | $605 | — |
| Expensive | 33x | $840 | +39% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CAT has the edge over AMRC in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
AMRC Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for AMRC, with profitability improving.
CAT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for CAT, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
AMRC Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $1.85 | +144% |
| Q3 2026 | $0.76 | -37% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.52 | -56% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.58 | -44% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.83 | -22% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.20 | +21% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.18 | +11% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.03 | -5.5% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.07 | -8.5% |
AMRC's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $0.76 over the past year, against $1.98 in late 2022.
CAT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $30.32 | +19% |
| Q3 2026 | $25.48 | +31% |
| Q2 2026 | $23.23 | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.08 | -2% |
| Q4 2025 | $18.81 | -15% |
| Q3 2025 | $19.46 | -9.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $19.64 | -10% |
| Q1 2025 | $20.50 | -7.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $22.05 | +9.6% |
CAT has the edge over AMRC on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
AMRC Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $580.3M | +10% |
| Q2 2026 | $515.5M | +9.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $401.5M | +14% |
| Q4 2025 | $581M | +9.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $526M | +5% |
| Q2 2025 | $472.3M | +7.8% |
| Q1 2025 | $352.8M | +18% |
| Q4 2024 | $532.7M | +21% |
AMRC's revenue has grown year over year for 12 quarters in a row: $580M last quarter, up 10% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 11% | +2.5 points |
| Q2 2026 | 8.6% | +2.7 points |
| Q1 2026 | 2.5% | -1.3 points |
| Q4 2025 | 8% | -0.4 points |
| Q3 2025 | 8.1% | +1 points |
| Q2 2025 | 5.9% | +1.1 points |
| Q1 2025 | 3.9% | +1.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 8.4% | +0.7 points |
AMRC's operating margin was 11% last quarter, up 2.5 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the top of its range since 2019.
CAT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.7B | +17% |
| Q2 2026 | $20.5B | +24% |
| Q1 2026 | $17.4B | +22% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.1B | +18% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.6B | +9.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.6B | -0.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $14.2B | -9.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | -5% |
CAT's revenue has grown year over year for five quarters in a row: $20.7B last quarter, up 17% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 20% | +3.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 21% | +3.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 18% | -0.4 points |
| Q4 2025 | 14% | -4.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 17% | -2.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 17% | -3.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 18% | -4.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 18% | -0.3 points |
CAT has the edge over AMRC on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
AMRC Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$9.5M | -153% |
| Q2 2026 | -$108.1M | -$81.1M |
| Q1 2026 | $34.9M | +$63.6M |
| Q4 2025 | -$98.7M | -676% |
| Q3 2025 | $18.1M | -25% |
| Q2 2025 | -$27M | -152% |
| Q1 2025 | -$28.7M | -245% |
| Q4 2024 | $17.1M | +$47.8M |
AMRC has burned cash in most quarters: −$181M over the past year, against −$21M the year before.
CAT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.7B | +19% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.8B | +47% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.1B | +97% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.7B | +0.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.1B | -1.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.6B | -4.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $579M | -63% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.7B | -22% |
CAT has the edge over AMRC on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
AMRC Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.3% | -160K shares |
| 1 year | +0.6% | +305K shares |
| 3 years | +0.7% | +375K shares |
| 5 years | +1.6% | +836K shares |
| Available history | +12% | +5.6M shares |
AMRC has 54M diluted shares, up 0.6% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q4 2021 | — |
| Q3 2021 | — |
| Q2 2021 | — |
| Q1 2021 | — |
| Q4 2020 | — |
| Q3 2020 | — |
| Q2 2020 | — |
CAT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.3% | -1.6M shares |
| 1 year | -2.1% | -9.9M shares |
| 3 years | -10% | -51.7M shares |
| 5 years | -16% | -86.7M shares |
| Available history | -19% | -107M shares |
CAT has the edge over AMRC on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.2B |
| Q2 2026 | $1.5B |
| Q1 2026 | $5B |
| Q4 2025 | $340M |
| Q3 2025 | $362M |
| Q2 2025 | $828M |
| Q1 2025 | $3.7B |
| Q4 2024 | $640M |
CAT spent $8.1B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 47% from the year before.
AMRC Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 6.9x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 7.2x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 8.1x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 8.1x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 7.7x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 7.9x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 7.9x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 7.7x | High |
AMRC's net debt is about 6.9 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 7.7 years a year ago.
CAT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | -0.6x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | 1.6x | Healthy |
CAT has the edge over AMRC on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
AMRC Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 54.2 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 37.7 | Neutral |
AMRC's weekly RSI is 54 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 38 (neutral).
CAT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 32.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 6.7 | Oversold |
CAT's weekly RSI is 33 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 7 (oversold).
AMRC PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | AMRC | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 34x | 24x | 42% above |
| PE % | 57 | 58 | 1 pt below |
AMRC is trading at 34x earnings, a 42% premium to the Industrials sector's median of 24x.
CAT PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | CAT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 24x | 24x | 1.3% below |
| PE % | 69 | 58 | 11 pts above |
CAT has the edge over AMRC on valuation relative to its sector.
AMRC Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $21.3 | 22% above |
| 20 week MA | $22.7 | 14% above |
| 50 week MA | $26.9 | 3.8% below |
| 100 week MA | $24.3 | 6.5% above |
| 200 week MA | $29.9 | 13% below |
AMRC has the edge over CAT on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
CAT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $709.0 | 15% below |
| 20 week MA | $797.0 | 24% below |
| 50 week MA | $771.3 | 22% below |
| 100 week MA | $586.7 | 3.2% above |
| 200 week MA | $443.1 | 37% above |
CAT has pulled back, but its long-term trend is still up: it's below its 8-, 20- and 50-week averages, but 37% above its 200-week average.
AMRC Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $17.5 | $49.4 | +183% |
| 2021 | $49.4 | $77.9 | +58% |
| 2022 | $77.9 | $56.3 | -28% |
| 2023 | $56.3 | $31.7 | -44% |
| 2024 | $31.7 | $23.2 | -27% |
| 2025 | $23.2 | $30.2 | +30% |
| 2026 YTD | $30.2 | $25.9 | -14% |
AMRC's yearly returns have swung widely, from +183% in 2020 to −44% in 2023. It's down 14% so far in 2026.
CAT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $148.3 | $179.6 | +21% |
| 2021 | $179.6 | $206.2 | +15% |
| 2022 | $206.2 | $239.9 | +16% |
| 2023 | $239.9 | $295.7 | +23% |
| 2024 | $295.7 | $364.9 | +23% |
| 2025 | $364.9 | $583.0 | +60% |
| 2026 YTD | $583.0 | $605.3 | +3.8% |
CAT has the edge over AMRC on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.