AMRC

Ameresco, Inc.

48
Fundamentals49/ 100
Valuation43/ 100
Upside potential63/ 100
Risk potential34/ 100

AMRC's fundamentals are mixed: revenue grew 10%, but earnings per share fell 37%. At 34x earnings, it's trading in line with its usual 32x. Analysts expect strong earnings growth, though they disagree widely on how much.

AMRC Fundamentals

MetricStatus
Stable
Stable
Weak
Weak

AMRC's revenue and profitability are currently stable, but its cash flow and balance sheet are weak.

AMRC PE Valuation

CHEAPFAIREXPENSIVE20x40x59x79x
CHEAPFAIREXPENSIVE20x40x59x79x
LevelPEPriceVs current
Forward14x$25.89—
Cheap23x$17.56-32%
Fair32x$24.21-6.5%
Current34x$25.89—
Expensive46x$34.96+35%

Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.

AMRC's PE is in its fair range at 34x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 14x next year's earnings, in its cheap range.

AMRC Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Strongly improving
Strong growth
Growth
Improving
Limited
Low

Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for AMRC, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.

AMRC Risk to reward

ScenarioChangePrice
Upside+58%$40.80
Downside-34%$17.07

Calculated from the latest close: $25.89 on Nov 12.

AMRC's one-year upside scenario is somewhat larger than its downside: +58% against −34%.

AMRC Earnings Per Share

Q4 2023: $1.17Q1 2024: $1.09Q2 2024: $1.06Q3 2024: $0.99Q4 2024: $1.07Q1 2025: $1.03Q2 2025: $1.18Q3 2025: $1.20Q4 2025: $0.83Q1 2026: $0.58Q2 2026: $0.52Q3 2026: $0.76Forward: $1.80
Q4 2023: $1.17Q1 2024: $1.09Q2 2024: $1.06Q3 2024: $0.99Q4 2024: $1.07Q1 2025: $1.03Q2 2025: $1.18Q3 2025: $1.20Q4 2025: $0.83Q1 2026: $0.58Q2 2026: $0.52Q3 2026: $0.76Forward: $1.80
QuarterTTM EPSYoY
Forward$1.80+137%
Q3 2026$0.76-37%
Q2 2026$0.52-56%
Q1 2026$0.58-44%
Q4 2025$0.83-22%
Q3 2025$1.20+21%
Q2 2025$1.18+11%
Q1 2025$1.03-5.5%
Q4 2024$1.07-8.5%

AMRC's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $0.76 over the past year, against $1.98 in late 2022.

AMRC Quarterly Revenue

Q4 2023: $441MQ1 2024: $298MQ2 2024: $438MQ3 2024: $501MQ4 2024: $533MQ1 2025: $353MQ2 2025: $472MQ3 2025: $526MQ4 2025: $581MQ1 2026: $401MQ2 2026: $515MQ3 2026: $580M
Q4 2023: $441MQ1 2024: $298MQ2 2024: $438MQ3 2024: $501MQ4 2024: $533MQ1 2025: $353MQ2 2025: $472MQ3 2025: $526MQ4 2025: $581MQ1 2026: $401MQ2 2026: $515MQ3 2026: $580M
QuarterRevenueYoY
Q3 2026$580.3M+10%
Q2 2026$515.5M+9.1%
Q1 2026$401.5M+14%
Q4 2025$581M+9.1%
Q3 2025$526M+5%
Q2 2025$472.3M+7.8%
Q1 2025$352.8M+18%
Q4 2024$532.7M+21%

AMRC's revenue has grown year over year for 12 quarters in a row: $580M last quarter, up 10% from the same quarter a year ago.

AMRC Free Cash Flow

Q4 2023: −$31MQ1 2024: $20MQ2 2024: $52MQ3 2024: $24MQ4 2024: $17MQ1 2025: −$29MQ2 2025: −$27MQ3 2025: $18MQ4 2025: −$99MQ1 2026: $35MQ2 2026: −$108MQ3 2026: −$9M
Q4 2023: −$31MQ1 2024: $20MQ2 2024: $52MQ3 2024: $24MQ4 2024: $17MQ1 2025: −$29MQ2 2025: −$27MQ3 2025: $18MQ4 2025: −$99MQ1 2026: $35MQ2 2026: −$108MQ3 2026: −$9M
QuarterFree cash flowYoY
Q3 2026-$9.5M-153%
Q2 2026-$108.1M-$81.1M
Q1 2026$34.9M+$63.6M
Q4 2025-$98.7M-676%
Q3 2025$18.1M-25%
Q2 2025-$27M-152%
Q1 2025-$28.7M-245%
Q4 2024$17.1M+$47.8M

AMRC has burned cash in most quarters: −$181M over the past year, against −$21M the year before.

AMRC Total Shares

Q4 2023: 53MQ1 2024: 52MQ2 2024: 53MQ3 2024: 53MQ4 2024: 53MQ1 2025: 53MQ2 2025: 53MQ3 2025: 53MQ4 2025: 54MQ1 2026: 53MQ2 2026: 54MQ3 2026: 54M
Q4 2023: 53MQ1 2024: 52MQ2 2024: 53MQ3 2024: 53MQ4 2024: 53MQ1 2025: 53MQ2 2025: 53MQ3 2025: 53MQ4 2025: 54MQ1 2026: 53MQ2 2026: 54MQ3 2026: 54M
PeriodChange %Net change
Quarterly-0.3%-160K shares
1 year+0.6%+305K shares
3 years+0.7%+375K shares
5 years+1.6%+836K shares
Available history+12%+5.6M shares

AMRC has 54M diluted shares, up 0.6% from a year ago.

AMRC Net Leverage

Q4 2023: 9.7xQ1 2024: 9.8xQ2 2024: 9.2xQ3 2024: 8.7xQ4 2024: 7.7xQ1 2025: 7.9xQ2 2025: 7.9xQ3 2025: 7.7xQ4 2025: 8.1xQ1 2026: 8.1xQ2 2026: 7.2xQ3 2026: 6.9x
Q4 2023: 9.7xQ1 2024: 9.8xQ2 2024: 9.2xQ3 2024: 8.7xQ4 2024: 7.7xQ1 2025: 7.9xQ2 2025: 7.9xQ3 2025: 7.7xQ4 2025: 8.1xQ1 2026: 8.1xQ2 2026: 7.2xQ3 2026: 6.9x
QuarterNet LeverageStatus
Q3 20266.9xHigh
Q2 20267.2xHigh
Q1 20268.1xHigh
Q4 20258.1xHigh
Q3 20257.7xHigh
Q2 20257.9xHigh
Q1 20257.9xHigh
Q4 20247.7xHigh

AMRC's net debt is about 6.9 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 7.7 years a year ago.

AMRC Weekly Momentum

MetricValueStatus
RSI54.2Neutral
Stochastic37.7Neutral

AMRC's weekly RSI is 54 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 38 (neutral).

AMRC PE vs Industrials Sector

MetricAMRCSector medianRelative
PE34x24x42% above
PE %57581 pt below

AMRC is trading at 34x earnings, a 42% premium to the Industrials sector's median of 24x.

AMRC Weekly Moving Averages

Moving averageMA priceRelative
8 week MA$21.322% above
20 week MA$22.714% above
50 week MA$26.93.8% below
100 week MA$24.36.5% above
200 week MA$29.913% below

AMRC's trend is mixed: it's above three of its five weekly moving averages, and 13% below its 200-week average.

AMRC Yearly ROI

YearStart priceEnd priceROI
2020$17.5$49.4+183%
2021$49.4$77.9+58%
2022$77.9$56.3-28%
2023$56.3$31.7-44%
2024$31.7$23.2-27%
2025$23.2$30.2+30%
2026 YTD$30.2$25.9-14%

AMRC's yearly returns have swung widely, from +183% in 2020 to −44% in 2023. It's down 14% so far in 2026.

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