ALSN
Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc.
ALSN has a slight edge over TSLA overall, supported by lower modeled downside and stronger modeled upside.
TSLA
Tesla, Inc.
TSLA offers stronger valuation, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
ALSN Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Under pressure |
ALSN's revenue, profitability and cash flow are currently healthy, but its balance sheet is under pressure.
TSLA Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Stable | |
| Under pressure | |
| Strong |
TSLA's revenue and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its profitability is stable, but its cash flow is under pressure.
ALSN PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 8.3x | $57.63 | -54% |
| Fair | 10x | $71.00 | -43% |
| Forward | 12x | $126 | — |
| Expensive | 15x | $102 | -19% |
| Current | 18x | $126 | — |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
ALSN has the edge over TSLA in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
TSLA PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 60x | $54.70 | -86% |
| Fair | 174x | $158 | -60% |
| Forward | 196x | $397 | — |
| Expensive | 415x | $378 | -4.9% |
| Current | 437x | $397 | — |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
TSLA's PE is in its expensive range at 437x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 196x next year's earnings, in its fair range.
ALSN Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Stable | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect strong earnings and revenue growth for ALSN, with profitability holding steady. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
TSLA Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Stable | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for TSLA, with profitability holding steady. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
ALSN Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $10.79 | +55% |
| Q3 2026 | $6.96 | -15% |
| Q2 2026 | $6.29 | -29% |
| Q1 2026 | $6.43 | -26% |
| Q4 2025 | $7.33 | -12% |
| Q3 2025 | $8.16 | -0.1% |
| Q2 2025 | $8.80 | +15% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.64 | +16% |
| Q4 2024 | $8.31 | +12% |
ALSN has the edge over TSLA on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
TSLA Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $2.03 | +123% |
| Q3 2026 | $0.91 | -39% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.08 | -38% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.09 | -40% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.08 | -47% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.50 | -59% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.73 | -51% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.82 | -53% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.04 | -53% |
TSLA's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $0.91 over the past year, against $4.30 in late 2023.
ALSN Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.5B | +121% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.6B | +92% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.4B | +84% |
| Q4 2025 | $737M | -7.4% |
| Q3 2025 | $693M | -16% |
| Q2 2025 | $814M | -0.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $766M | -2.9% |
| Q4 2024 | $796M | +2.7% |
ALSN has the edge over TSLA on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 20% | -9.6 points |
| Q2 2026 | 19% | -13 points |
| Q1 2026 | 14% | -19 points |
| Q4 2025 | 23% | -6.3 points |
| Q3 2025 | 29% | -2.1 points |
| Q2 2025 | 31% | -0.8 points |
| Q1 2025 | 33% | +2.8 points |
| Q4 2024 | 30% | +0.5 points |
ALSN has the edge over TSLA on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
TSLA Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $28B | -0.2% |
| Q2 2026 | $28.2B | +26% |
| Q1 2026 | $22.4B | +16% |
| Q4 2025 | $24.9B | -3.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $28.1B | +12% |
| Q2 2025 | $22.5B | -12% |
| Q1 2025 | $19.3B | -9.2% |
| Q4 2024 | $25.7B | +2.1% |
TSLA's revenue has picked up after two years of holding roughly level: $28B last quarter, about level with the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 2.6% | -3.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 1.4% | -2.7 points |
| Q1 2026 | 4.2% | +2.1 points |
| Q4 2025 | 5.7% | -0.5 points |
| Q3 2025 | 5.8% | -5 points |
| Q2 2025 | 4.1% | -2.2 points |
| Q1 2025 | 2.1% | -3.4 points |
| Q4 2024 | 6.2% | -2 points |
TSLA's operating margin was 2.6% last quarter, down 3.2 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the bottom of its range since 2019.
ALSN Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $278M | +51% |
| Q2 2026 | $281M | +84% |
| Q1 2026 | $103M | -34% |
| Q4 2025 | $169M | +24% |
| Q3 2025 | $184M | -12% |
| Q2 2025 | $153M | +2% |
| Q1 2025 | $155M | -4.3% |
| Q4 2024 | $136M | -27% |
ALSN has the edge over TSLA on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
TSLA Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.5B | -62% |
| Q2 2026 | -$1.1B | -848% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.4B | +117% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.4B | -30% |
| Q3 2025 | $4B | +46% |
| Q2 2025 | $146M | -89% |
| Q1 2025 | $664M | +$3.2B |
| Q4 2024 | $2B | -1.6% |
TSLA still generates free cash flow, though less than at its 2025 peak: $3.3B over the past year.
ALSN Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -1.2% | -1M shares |
| 1 year | -1.2% | -1M shares |
| 3 years | -7.8% | -7M shares |
| 5 years | -22% | -23M shares |
| Available history | -33% | -40M shares |
ALSN has the edge over TSLA on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $57M |
| Q2 2026 | $46M |
| Q1 2026 | $20M |
| Q4 2025 | $46M |
| Q3 2025 | $27M |
| Q2 2025 | $105M |
| Q1 2025 | $150M |
| Q4 2024 | $121M |
ALSN spent $169M buying back its own shares over the past year, down 58% from the year before.
TSLA Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | 0% | +1M shares |
| 1 year | +0.4% | +15M shares |
| 3 years | +1.4% | +48M shares |
| 5 years | +5.1% | +172M shares |
| Available history | +33% | +886M shares |
TSLA has 3.5B diluted shares, about the same as a year ago.
ALSN Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 2.8x | Moderate |
| Q2 2026 | 3.4x | Elevated |
| Q1 2026 | 4.0x | Elevated |
| Q4 2025 | 1.4x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | 1.4x | Healthy |
| Q2 2025 | 1.5x | Healthy |
| Q1 2025 | 1.5x | Healthy |
| Q4 2024 | 1.5x | Healthy |
ALSN's net debt is about 2.8 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), up from 1.4 years a year ago.
TSLA Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -1.1x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.8x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.9x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -1.1x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -1.4x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -1.1x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -1.1x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -1.0x | Net Cash |
TSLA has the edge over ALSN on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
ALSN Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 56.4 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 39.8 | Neutral |
ALSN's weekly RSI is 56 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 40 (neutral).
TSLA Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 54.3 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 72.6 | Neutral |
TSLA's weekly RSI is 54 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 73 (neutral).
ALSN PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | ALSN | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 18x | 18x | 0.2% above |
| PE % | 95 | 47 | 48 pts above |
ALSN has the edge over TSLA on valuation relative to its sector.
TSLA PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | TSLA | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 437x | 18x | 2,324% above |
| PE % | 84 | 47 | 37 pts above |
TSLA is trading at 437x earnings, a 2324% premium to the Consumer Cyclical sector's median of 18x.
ALSN Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $113.8 | 10% above |
| 20 week MA | $118.6 | 6% above |
| 50 week MA | $116.1 | 8.2% above |
| 100 week MA | $105.7 | 19% above |
| 200 week MA | $87.0 | 44% above |
ALSN is in an uptrend: it's above all five of its weekly moving averages, and 44% above its 200-week average.
TSLA Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $376.0 | 5.7% above |
| 20 week MA | $364.0 | 9.2% above |
| 50 week MA | $393.6 | 1% above |
| 100 week MA | $372.1 | 6.8% above |
| 200 week MA | $296.9 | 34% above |
TSLA is in an uptrend: it's above all five of its weekly moving averages, and 34% above its 200-week average.
ALSN Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $48.7 | $43.3 | -11% |
| 2021 | $43.3 | $34.6 | -20% |
| 2022 | $34.6 | $42.3 | +22% |
| 2023 | $42.3 | $58.2 | +38% |
| 2024 | $58.2 | $108.7 | +87% |
| 2025 | $108.7 | $100.9 | -7.2% |
| 2026 YTD | $100.9 | $125.7 | +24% |
ALSN has the edge over TSLA on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
TSLA Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $28.7 | $220.6 | +669% |
| 2021 | $220.6 | $355.7 | +61% |
| 2022 | $355.7 | $123.2 | -65% |
| 2023 | $123.2 | $248.5 | +102% |
| 2024 | $248.5 | $431.7 | +74% |
| 2025 | $431.7 | $475.2 | +10% |
| 2026 YTD | $475.2 | $397.5 | -16% |
TSLA's yearly returns have swung widely, from +669% in 2020 to −65% in 2022. It's down 16% so far in 2026.