ALSN
Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc.
ALSN's fundamentals are mixed, but it looks expensive: trading at 18x earnings, above its usual 10x. Analysts expect strong earnings growth, though they disagree widely on how much.
ALSN Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Under pressure |
ALSN's revenue, profitability and cash flow are currently healthy, but its balance sheet is under pressure.
ALSN PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 8.3x | $57.63 | -54% |
| Fair | 10x | $71.00 | -43% |
| Forward | 12x | $126 | — |
| Expensive | 15x | $102 | -19% |
| Current | 18x | $126 | — |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
ALSN's PE is in its expensive range at 18x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 12x next year's earnings.
ALSN Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Stable | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect strong earnings and revenue growth for ALSN, with profitability holding steady. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
ALSN Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $10.63 | +53% |
| Q3 2026 | $6.96 | -15% |
| Q2 2026 | $6.29 | -29% |
| Q1 2026 | $6.43 | -26% |
| Q4 2025 | $7.33 | -12% |
| Q3 2025 | $8.16 | -0.1% |
| Q2 2025 | $8.80 | +15% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.64 | +16% |
| Q4 2024 | $8.31 | +12% |
ALSN earned $6.96 per share over the past year, down 15% from the year before.
ALSN Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.5B | +121% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.6B | +92% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.4B | +84% |
| Q4 2025 | $737M | -7.4% |
| Q3 2025 | $693M | -16% |
| Q2 2025 | $814M | -0.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $766M | -2.9% |
| Q4 2024 | $796M | +2.7% |
ALSN's revenue has picked up after two years of holding roughly level: $1.5B last quarter, up 121% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 20% | -9.6 points |
| Q2 2026 | 19% | -13 points |
| Q1 2026 | 14% | -19 points |
| Q4 2025 | 23% | -6.3 points |
| Q3 2025 | 29% | -2.1 points |
| Q2 2025 | 31% | -0.8 points |
| Q1 2025 | 33% | +2.8 points |
| Q4 2024 | 30% | +0.5 points |
ALSN's operating margin was 20% last quarter, down 9.6 points from the same quarter a year ago.
ALSN Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $278M | +51% |
| Q2 2026 | $281M | +84% |
| Q1 2026 | $103M | -34% |
| Q4 2025 | $169M | +24% |
| Q3 2025 | $184M | -12% |
| Q2 2025 | $153M | +2% |
| Q1 2025 | $155M | -4.3% |
| Q4 2024 | $136M | -27% |
ALSN's free cash flow has been positive every quarter for seven years: $831M over the past year, up 32% from the year before.
ALSN Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -1.2% | -1M shares |
| 1 year | -1.2% | -1M shares |
| 3 years | -7.8% | -7M shares |
| 5 years | -22% | -23M shares |
| Available history | -33% | -40M shares |
ALSN has 83M diluted shares, down 1.2% from a year ago, with $169M in buybacks over the past year.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $57M |
| Q2 2026 | $46M |
| Q1 2026 | $20M |
| Q4 2025 | $46M |
| Q3 2025 | $27M |
| Q2 2025 | $105M |
| Q1 2025 | $150M |
| Q4 2024 | $121M |
ALSN spent $169M buying back its own shares over the past year, down 58% from the year before.
ALSN Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 2.8x | Moderate |
| Q2 2026 | 3.4x | Elevated |
| Q1 2026 | 4.0x | Elevated |
| Q4 2025 | 1.4x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | 1.4x | Healthy |
| Q2 2025 | 1.5x | Healthy |
| Q1 2025 | 1.5x | Healthy |
| Q4 2024 | 1.5x | Healthy |
ALSN's net debt is about 2.8 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), up from 1.4 years a year ago.
ALSN Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 56.4 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 39.8 | Neutral |
ALSN's weekly RSI is 56 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 40 (neutral).
ALSN PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | ALSN | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 18x | 18x | 0.2% above |
| PE % | 95 | 47 | 48 pts above |
ALSN is trading at 18x earnings, in line with the Consumer Cyclical sector's median of 18x.
ALSN Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $113.8 | 10% above |
| 20 week MA | $118.6 | 6% above |
| 50 week MA | $116.1 | 8.2% above |
| 100 week MA | $105.7 | 19% above |
| 200 week MA | $87.0 | 44% above |
ALSN is in an uptrend: it's above all five of its weekly moving averages, and 44% above its 200-week average.
ALSN Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $48.7 | $43.3 | -11% |
| 2021 | $43.3 | $34.6 | -20% |
| 2022 | $34.6 | $42.3 | +22% |
| 2023 | $42.3 | $58.2 | +38% |
| 2024 | $58.2 | $108.7 | +87% |
| 2025 | $108.7 | $100.9 | -7.2% |
| 2026 YTD | $100.9 | $125.7 | +24% |
ALSN has finished lower in three of the last six years. It's up 24% so far in 2026.