ALSN
Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc.
ALSN's outlook is improving despite an expensive valuation.
NKE
NIKE, Inc.
NKE has the edge over ALSN overall, supported by stronger valuation and stronger fundamentals.
ALSN Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Under pressure |
ALSN's revenue, profitability and cash flow are currently healthy, but its balance sheet is under pressure.
NKE Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| Stable | |
| Strong |
NKE's profitability and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its revenue and cash flow are stable.
ALSN PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 8.3x | $57.63 | -54% |
| Fair | 10x | $71.00 | -43% |
| Forward | 12x | $126 | — |
| Expensive | 15x | $102 | -19% |
| Current | 18x | $126 | — |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
ALSN's PE is in its expensive range at 18x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 12x next year's earnings, in its fair range.
NKE PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current | 18x | $37.76 | — |
| Cheap | 23x | $47.70 | +26% |
| Forward | 30x | $37.76 | — |
| Fair | 33x | $68.16 | +80% |
| Expensive | 47x | $97.86 | +159% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
NKE has the edge over ALSN in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
ALSN Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Stable | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect strong earnings and revenue growth for ALSN, with profitability holding steady. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
NKE Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly deteriorating | |
| Stable | |
| Decline | |
| Improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
Analysts expect NKE's profitability to improve, but its revenue to decline. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
ALSN Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $10.79 | +55% |
| Q3 2026 | $6.96 | -15% |
| Q2 2026 | $6.29 | -29% |
| Q1 2026 | $6.43 | -26% |
| Q4 2025 | $7.33 | -12% |
| Q3 2025 | $8.16 | -0.1% |
| Q2 2025 | $8.80 | +15% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.64 | +16% |
| Q4 2024 | $8.31 | +12% |
ALSN has the edge over NKE on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
NKE Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $1.27 | -39% |
| Q3 2026 | $2.09 | +7.2% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.10 | -2.8% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.51 | -50% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.70 | -48% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.95 | -44% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.16 | -42% |
| Q1 2025 | $3.01 | -11% |
| Q4 2024 | $3.24 | -5.3% |
NKE's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $2.09 over the past year, against $3.82 in late 2021.
ALSN Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.5B | +121% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.6B | +92% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.4B | +84% |
| Q4 2025 | $737M | -7.4% |
| Q3 2025 | $693M | -16% |
| Q2 2025 | $814M | -0.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $766M | -2.9% |
| Q4 2024 | $796M | +2.7% |
ALSN has the edge over NKE on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 20% | -9.6 points |
| Q2 2026 | 19% | -13 points |
| Q1 2026 | 14% | -19 points |
| Q4 2025 | 23% | -6.3 points |
| Q3 2025 | 29% | -2.1 points |
| Q2 2025 | 31% | -0.8 points |
| Q1 2025 | 33% | +2.8 points |
| Q4 2024 | 30% | +0.5 points |
ALSN has the edge over NKE on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
NKE Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $11.2B | -4.3% |
| Q2 2026 | $11B | -1.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $11.3B | +0.1% |
| Q4 2025 | $12.4B | +0.6% |
| Q3 2025 | $11.7B | +1.1% |
| Q2 2025 | $11.1B | -12% |
| Q1 2025 | $11.3B | -9.3% |
| Q4 2024 | $12.4B | -7.7% |
NKE's revenue fell from its 2023 peak and has held roughly level since: $11.2B last quarter, down 4.3% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 8.2% | +0.3 points |
| Q2 2026 | 12% | +9.2 points |
| Q1 2026 | 5.8% | -1.7 points |
| Q4 2025 | 8% | -3.4 points |
| Q3 2025 | 7.9% | -3.4 points |
| Q2 2025 | 2.9% | -11 points |
| Q1 2025 | 7.5% | -3.8 points |
| Q4 2024 | 11% | -2.9 points |
NKE's operating margin was 8.2% last quarter, about level with the same quarter a year ago.
ALSN Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $278M | +51% |
| Q2 2026 | $281M | +84% |
| Q1 2026 | $103M | -34% |
| Q4 2025 | $169M | +24% |
| Q3 2025 | $184M | -12% |
| Q2 2025 | $153M | +2% |
| Q1 2025 | $155M | -4.3% |
| Q4 2024 | $136M | -27% |
ALSN has the edge over NKE on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
NKE Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$64M | -527% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.5B | +313% |
| Q1 2026 | $284M | -83% |
| Q4 2025 | $386M | -58% |
| Q3 2025 | $15M | -95% |
| Q2 2025 | $363M | -85% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.7B | -11% |
| Q4 2024 | $920M | -65% |
NKE usually generates cash, though not every quarter: the latest was −$64M, but it generated $2.1B over the past year.
ALSN Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -1.2% | -1M shares |
| 1 year | -1.2% | -1M shares |
| 3 years | -7.8% | -7M shares |
| 5 years | -22% | -23M shares |
| Available history | -33% | -40M shares |
ALSN has the edge over NKE on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $57M |
| Q2 2026 | $46M |
| Q1 2026 | $20M |
| Q4 2025 | $46M |
| Q3 2025 | $27M |
| Q2 2025 | $105M |
| Q1 2025 | $150M |
| Q4 2024 | $121M |
ALSN spent $169M buying back its own shares over the past year, down 58% from the year before.
NKE Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.2% | +3.2M shares |
| 1 year | +0.4% | +5.2M shares |
| 3 years | -3.8% | -59.1M shares |
| 5 years | -8.4% | -135M shares |
| Available history | -6.9% | -110M shares |
NKE has 1.5B diluted shares, about the same as a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | — |
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | $20M |
| Q3 2025 | $126M |
| Q2 2025 | $199M |
| Q1 2025 | $506M |
| Q4 2024 | $1.1B |
NKE has spent almost nothing on buybacks in the past year.
ALSN Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 2.8x | Moderate |
| Q2 2026 | 3.4x | Elevated |
| Q1 2026 | 4.0x | Elevated |
| Q4 2025 | 1.4x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | 1.4x | Healthy |
| Q2 2025 | 1.5x | Healthy |
| Q1 2025 | 1.5x | Healthy |
| Q4 2024 | 1.5x | Healthy |
ALSN's net debt is about 2.8 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), up from 1.4 years a year ago.
NKE Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 0.2x | Very low |
| Q2 2026 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | 0.2x | Very low |
| Q3 2024 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q2 2024 | -0.1x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2024 | -0.0x | Very low |
| Q4 2023 | 0.1x | Very low |
NKE has the edge over ALSN on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
ALSN Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 56.4 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 39.8 | Neutral |
ALSN's weekly RSI is 56 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 40 (neutral).
NKE Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 40.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 57.5 | Neutral |
NKE's weekly RSI is 40 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 58 (neutral).
ALSN PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | ALSN | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 18x | 18x | 0.2% above |
| PE % | 95 | 47 | 48 pts above |
ALSN has the edge over NKE on valuation relative to its sector.
NKE PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | NKE | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 18x | 18x | 0.3% above |
| PE % | 2 | 47 | 45 pts below |
NKE is trading at 18x earnings, in line with the Consumer Cyclical sector's median of 18x.
ALSN Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $113.8 | 10% above |
| 20 week MA | $118.6 | 6% above |
| 50 week MA | $116.1 | 8.2% above |
| 100 week MA | $105.7 | 19% above |
| 200 week MA | $87.0 | 44% above |
ALSN has the edge over NKE on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
NKE Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $36.7 | 2.8% above |
| 20 week MA | $39.2 | 3.6% below |
| 50 week MA | $48.0 | 21% below |
| 100 week MA | $58.4 | 35% below |
| 200 week MA | $79.2 | 52% below |
NKE has bounced recently, but its long-term trend is still down: it's above its 8-week average, but 52% below its 200-week average.
ALSN Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $48.7 | $43.3 | -11% |
| 2021 | $43.3 | $34.6 | -20% |
| 2022 | $34.6 | $42.3 | +22% |
| 2023 | $42.3 | $58.2 | +38% |
| 2024 | $58.2 | $108.7 | +87% |
| 2025 | $108.7 | $100.9 | -7.2% |
| 2026 YTD | $100.9 | $125.7 | +24% |
ALSN has the edge over NKE on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
NKE Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $101.6 | $141.6 | +39% |
| 2021 | $141.6 | $165.7 | +17% |
| 2022 | $165.7 | $116.3 | -30% |
| 2023 | $116.3 | $108.6 | -6.6% |
| 2024 | $108.6 | $76.4 | -30% |
| 2025 | $76.4 | $60.9 | -20% |
| 2026 YTD | $60.9 | $37.8 | -38% |
NKE has finished four years in a row lower, and it's down 38% so far in 2026.