ALSN
Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc.
ALSN has lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
NIO
NIO Inc.
NIO has the edge over ALSN overall, supported by stronger valuation and stronger fundamentals.
ALSN Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Under pressure |
ALSN's revenue, profitability and cash flow are currently healthy, but its balance sheet is under pressure.
NIO Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| Unavailable |
NIO's revenue is currently strong, and its profitability and cash flow are stable. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
ALSN PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 8.3x | $57.63 | -54% |
| Fair | 10x | $71.00 | -43% |
| Forward | 12x | $126 | — |
| Expensive | 15x | $102 | -19% |
| Current | 18x | $126 | — |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
ALSN's PE is in its expensive range at 18x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 12x next year's earnings, in its fair range.
NIO PE Valuation
NIO has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
ALSN Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Stable | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect strong earnings and revenue growth for ALSN, with profitability holding steady. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
NIO Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Losses shrinking | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
NIO has the edge over ALSN on the outlook, with more favorable profitability expectations.
ALSN Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $10.79 | +55% |
| Q3 2026 | $6.96 | -15% |
| Q2 2026 | $6.29 | -29% |
| Q1 2026 | $6.43 | -26% |
| Q4 2025 | $7.33 | -12% |
| Q3 2025 | $8.16 | -0.1% |
| Q2 2025 | $8.80 | +15% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.64 | +16% |
| Q4 2024 | $8.31 | +12% |
ALSN has the edge over NIO on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
NIO Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | -$0.29 | +$1.45 |
| Q1 2026 | -$0.60 | +$1.16 |
| Q4 2025 | -$1.06 | +$0.60 |
| Q3 2025 | -$1.59 | +$0.02 |
| Q2 2025 | -$1.74 | -$0.10 |
| Q1 2025 | -$1.76 | +$0.06 |
| Q4 2024 | -$1.66 | +$0.21 |
| Q3 2024 | -$1.61 | +$0.32 |
NIO is still losing money, but far less than before: $0.29 per share over the past year, against $1.93 at its worst in late 2023.
ALSN Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.5B | +121% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.6B | +92% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.4B | +84% |
| Q4 2025 | $737M | -7.4% |
| Q3 2025 | $693M | -16% |
| Q2 2025 | $814M | -0.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $766M | -2.9% |
| Q4 2024 | $796M | +2.7% |
ALSN's revenue has picked up after two years of holding roughly level: $1.5B last quarter, up 121% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 20% | -9.6 points |
| Q2 2026 | 19% | -13 points |
| Q1 2026 | 14% | -19 points |
| Q4 2025 | 23% | -6.3 points |
| Q3 2025 | 29% | -2.1 points |
| Q2 2025 | 31% | -0.8 points |
| Q1 2025 | 33% | +2.8 points |
| Q4 2024 | 30% | +0.5 points |
ALSN has the edge over NIO on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
NIO Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $4.8B | +69% |
| Q1 2026 | $3.8B | +112% |
| Q4 2025 | $5.2B | +76% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.3B | +17% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.9B | +9% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.8B | +21% |
| Q4 2024 | $3B | +15% |
| Q3 2024 | $2.8B | -2.1% |
NIO has the edge over ALSN on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | -2.1% | +24 points |
| Q1 2026 | -1.2% | +52 points |
| Q4 2025 | 2.3% | +33 points |
| Q3 2025 | -16% | +12 points |
| Q2 2025 | -26% | +4 points |
| Q1 2025 | -53% | +1.1 points |
| Q4 2024 | -31% | +8.1 points |
| Q3 2024 | -28% | -2.6 points |
NIO's operating margin was −2.1% last quarter, up 24 points from the same quarter a year ago.
ALSN Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $278M | +51% |
| Q2 2026 | $281M | +84% |
| Q1 2026 | $103M | -34% |
| Q4 2025 | $169M | +24% |
| Q3 2025 | $184M | -12% |
| Q2 2025 | $153M | +2% |
| Q1 2025 | $155M | -4.3% |
| Q4 2024 | $136M | -27% |
ALSN's free cash flow has been positive every quarter for seven years: $831M over the past year, up 32% from the year before.
NIO Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $0 | +$2.1B |
| Q1 2026 | $0 | $0 |
| Q4 2025 | $0 | +$391.3M |
| Q3 2025 | $0 | $0 |
| Q2 2025 | -$2.1B | +$73.9M |
| Q1 2025 | $0 | $0 |
| Q4 2024 | -$391.3M | -386% |
| Q2 2024 | -$2.2B | +$337.9M |
NIO's free cash flow was $0 over the past year, against −$2.5B the year before.
ALSN Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -1.2% | -1M shares |
| 1 year | -1.2% | -1M shares |
| 3 years | -7.8% | -7M shares |
| 5 years | -22% | -23M shares |
| Available history | -33% | -40M shares |
ALSN has the edge over NIO on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $57M |
| Q2 2026 | $46M |
| Q1 2026 | $20M |
| Q4 2025 | $46M |
| Q3 2025 | $27M |
| Q2 2025 | $105M |
| Q1 2025 | $150M |
| Q4 2024 | $121M |
ALSN spent $169M buying back its own shares over the past year, down 58% from the year before.
NIO Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.6% | +15.6M shares |
| 1 year | +12% | +267M shares |
| 3 years | +51% | +844M shares |
| 5 years | +60% | +933M shares |
| Available history | +143% | +1.5B shares |
NIO has 2.5B diluted shares, up 12% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q3 2024 | — |
NIO hasn't bought back shares in the past year.
ALSN Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 2.8x | Moderate |
| Q2 2026 | 3.4x | Elevated |
| Q1 2026 | 4.0x | Elevated |
| Q4 2025 | 1.4x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | 1.4x | Healthy |
| Q2 2025 | 1.5x | Healthy |
| Q1 2025 | 1.5x | Healthy |
| Q4 2024 | 1.5x | Healthy |
ALSN's net debt is about 2.8 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), up from 1.4 years a year ago.
NIO Net Leverage
NIO's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
ALSN Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 56.4 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 39.8 | Neutral |
ALSN's weekly RSI is 56 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 40 (neutral).
NIO Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 30.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 6.9 | Oversold |
NIO's weekly RSI is 31 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 7 (oversold).
ALSN PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | ALSN | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 18x | 18x | 0.2% above |
| PE % | 95 | 47 | 48 pts above |
ALSN is trading at 18x earnings, in line with the Consumer Cyclical sector's median of 18x.
NIO PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
NIO has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
ALSN Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $113.8 | 10% above |
| 20 week MA | $118.6 | 6% above |
| 50 week MA | $116.1 | 8.2% above |
| 100 week MA | $105.7 | 19% above |
| 200 week MA | $87.0 | 44% above |
ALSN has the edge over NIO on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
NIO Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $3.36 | 9.2% below |
| 20 week MA | $4.01 | 24% below |
| 50 week MA | $4.81 | 37% below |
| 100 week MA | $4.85 | 37% below |
| 200 week MA | $6.03 | 49% below |
NIO is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 49% below its 200-week average.
ALSN Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $48.7 | $43.3 | -11% |
| 2021 | $43.3 | $34.6 | -20% |
| 2022 | $34.6 | $42.3 | +22% |
| 2023 | $42.3 | $58.2 | +38% |
| 2024 | $58.2 | $108.7 | +87% |
| 2025 | $108.7 | $100.9 | -7.2% |
| 2026 YTD | $100.9 | $125.7 | +24% |
ALSN has the edge over NIO on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
NIO Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $2.42 | $45.8 | +1791% |
| 2021 | $45.8 | $30.5 | -33% |
| 2022 | $30.5 | $11.0 | -64% |
| 2023 | $11.0 | $9.07 | -17% |
| 2024 | $9.07 | $4.48 | -51% |
| 2025 | $4.48 | $5.10 | +14% |
| 2026 YTD | $5.10 | $3.05 | -40% |
NIO's yearly returns have swung widely, from +1791% in 2020 to −64% in 2022. It's down 40% so far in 2026.