ALSN
Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc.
ALSN has lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
BABA
Alibaba Group Holding Limited
BABA has a slight edge over ALSN overall, supported by stronger valuation and stronger modeled upside.
ALSN Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Under pressure |
ALSN's revenue, profitability and cash flow are currently healthy, but its balance sheet is under pressure.
BABA Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Under pressure | |
| Weak | |
| Healthy |
BABA's balance sheet is currently healthy, and its revenue is stable, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure.
ALSN PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 8.3x | $57.63 | -54% |
| Fair | 10x | $71.00 | -43% |
| Forward | 12x | $126 | — |
| Expensive | 15x | $102 | -19% |
| Current | 18x | $126 | — |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
ALSN's PE is in its expensive range at 18x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 12x next year's earnings, in its fair range.
BABA PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 16x | $69.66 | -26% |
| Fair | 20x | $86.59 | -8.2% |
| Current | 21x | $94.36 | — |
| Expensive | 26x | $115 | +22% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
BABA has the edge over ALSN in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
ALSN Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Stable | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect strong earnings and revenue growth for ALSN, with profitability holding steady. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
BABA Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
BABA has the edge over ALSN on the outlook, with more favorable profitability expectations.
ALSN Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $10.79 | +55% |
| Q3 2026 | $6.96 | -15% |
| Q2 2026 | $6.29 | -29% |
| Q1 2026 | $6.43 | -26% |
| Q4 2025 | $7.33 | -12% |
| Q3 2025 | $8.16 | -0.1% |
| Q2 2025 | $8.80 | +15% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.64 | +16% |
| Q4 2024 | $8.31 | +12% |
ALSN earned $6.96 per share over the past year, down 15% from the year before.
BABA Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $4.42 | -52% |
| Q1 2026 | $6.57 | -18% |
| Q4 2025 | $5.79 | -22% |
| Q3 2025 | $7.85 | +49% |
| Q2 2025 | $9.27 | +116% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.06 | +71% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.47 | +24% |
| Q3 2024 | $5.26 | -35% |
BABA has the edge over ALSN on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
ALSN Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.5B | +121% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.6B | +92% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.4B | +84% |
| Q4 2025 | $737M | -7.4% |
| Q3 2025 | $693M | -16% |
| Q2 2025 | $814M | -0.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $766M | -2.9% |
| Q4 2024 | $796M | +2.7% |
ALSN's revenue has picked up after two years of holding roughly level: $1.5B last quarter, up 121% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 20% | -9.6 points |
| Q2 2026 | 19% | -13 points |
| Q1 2026 | 14% | -19 points |
| Q4 2025 | 23% | -6.3 points |
| Q3 2025 | 29% | -2.1 points |
| Q2 2025 | 31% | -0.8 points |
| Q1 2025 | 33% | +2.8 points |
| Q4 2024 | 30% | +0.5 points |
ALSN has the edge over BABA on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
BABA Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $40.2B | +8.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $36.5B | +2.9% |
| Q4 2025 | $42.7B | +1.7% |
| Q3 2025 | $37.2B | +4.8% |
| Q2 2025 | $37.2B | +1.8% |
| Q1 2025 | $35.5B | +6.6% |
| Q4 2024 | $42B | +7.6% |
| Q3 2024 | $35.5B | +5.2% |
BABA has the edge over ALSN on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 7.2% | -6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3% | -12 points |
| Q4 2025 | 7.1% | -7.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 2.2% | -13 points |
| Q2 2025 | 14% | -0.7 points |
| Q1 2025 | 12% | +5.4 points |
| Q4 2024 | 15% | +6.1 points |
| Q3 2024 | 15% | 0 points |
BABA's operating margin was 7.2% last quarter, down 6.9 points from the same quarter a year ago.
ALSN Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $278M | +51% |
| Q2 2026 | $281M | +84% |
| Q1 2026 | $103M | -34% |
| Q4 2025 | $169M | +24% |
| Q3 2025 | $184M | -12% |
| Q2 2025 | $153M | +2% |
| Q1 2025 | $155M | -4.3% |
| Q4 2024 | $136M | -27% |
ALSN has the edge over BABA on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
BABA Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | -$6.7B | -$4.1B |
| Q1 2026 | -$2.7B | +$1.5B |
| Q4 2025 | $1B | -90% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.2B | -254% |
| Q2 2025 | -$2.7B | -182% |
| Q1 2025 | -$4.2B | -12231% |
| Q4 2024 | $10.4B | -4.8% |
| Q3 2024 | $2.1B | -62% |
BABA's free cash flow has turned negative after years in the green: −$11.6B over the past year.
ALSN Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -1.2% | -1M shares |
| 1 year | -1.2% | -1M shares |
| 3 years | -7.8% | -7M shares |
| 5 years | -22% | -23M shares |
| Available history | -33% | -40M shares |
ALSN has the edge over BABA on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $57M |
| Q2 2026 | $46M |
| Q1 2026 | $20M |
| Q4 2025 | $46M |
| Q3 2025 | $27M |
| Q2 2025 | $105M |
| Q1 2025 | $150M |
| Q4 2024 | $121M |
ALSN spent $169M buying back its own shares over the past year, down 58% from the year before.
BABA Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.5% | +11.1M shares |
| 1 year | +0.9% | +21.4M shares |
| 3 years | -6.2% | -161M shares |
| 5 years | -12% | -339M shares |
| Available history | -8.4% | -221M shares |
BABA has 2.4B diluted shares, up 0.9% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | $269.8M |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q3 2024 | — |
BABA spent $270M buying back its own shares over the past year, after none the year before.
ALSN Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 2.8x | Moderate |
| Q2 2026 | 3.4x | Elevated |
| Q1 2026 | 4.0x | Elevated |
| Q4 2025 | 1.4x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | 1.4x | Healthy |
| Q2 2025 | 1.5x | Healthy |
| Q1 2025 | 1.5x | Healthy |
| Q4 2024 | 1.5x | Healthy |
ALSN's net debt is about 2.8 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), up from 1.4 years a year ago.
BABA Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q4 2025 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | 0.8x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | 0.2x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 0.3x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q3 2024 | -0.2x | Net Cash |
BABA has the edge over ALSN on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
ALSN Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 56.4 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 39.8 | Neutral |
ALSN's weekly RSI is 56 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 40 (neutral).
BABA Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 38.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 12.7 | Oversold |
BABA's weekly RSI is 38 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 13 (oversold).
ALSN PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | ALSN | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 18x | 18x | 0.2% above |
| PE % | 95 | 47 | 48 pts above |
ALSN has the edge over BABA on valuation relative to its sector.
BABA PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | BABA | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 21x | 18x | 19% above |
| PE % | 60 | 47 | 13 pts above |
BABA is trading at 21x earnings, a 19% premium to the Consumer Cyclical sector's median of 18x, though its earnings don't support one.
ALSN Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $113.8 | 10% above |
| 20 week MA | $118.6 | 6% above |
| 50 week MA | $116.1 | 8.2% above |
| 100 week MA | $105.7 | 19% above |
| 200 week MA | $87.0 | 44% above |
ALSN has the edge over BABA on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
BABA Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $104.7 | 9.9% below |
| 20 week MA | $111.1 | 15% below |
| 50 week MA | $128.0 | 26% below |
| 100 week MA | $127.7 | 26% below |
| 200 week MA | $106.4 | 11% below |
BABA is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 11% below its 200-week average.
ALSN Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $48.7 | $43.3 | -11% |
| 2021 | $43.3 | $34.6 | -20% |
| 2022 | $34.6 | $42.3 | +22% |
| 2023 | $42.3 | $58.2 | +38% |
| 2024 | $58.2 | $108.7 | +87% |
| 2025 | $108.7 | $100.9 | -7.2% |
| 2026 YTD | $100.9 | $125.7 | +24% |
ALSN has the edge over BABA on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
BABA Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $215.5 | $222.0 | +3% |
| 2021 | $222.0 | $118.7 | -47% |
| 2022 | $118.7 | $85.7 | -28% |
| 2023 | $85.7 | $77.5 | -9.5% |
| 2024 | $77.5 | $85.1 | +9.7% |
| 2025 | $85.1 | $152.2 | +79% |
| 2026 YTD | $152.2 | $94.4 | -38% |
BABA has finished lower in three of the last six years. It's down 38% so far in 2026.