ALLE
Allegion plc
ALLE offers stronger valuation, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
CAT
Caterpillar Inc.
CAT has the edge over ALLE overall, supported by stronger modeled upside and stronger fundamentals.
ALLE Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Healthy |
ALLE's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
CAT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
CAT's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
ALLE PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 19x | $154 | -19% |
| Forward | 19x | $190 | — |
| Fair | 22x | $174 | -8.6% |
| Current | 24x | $190 | — |
| Expensive | 29x | $233 | +23% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
ALLE has the edge over CAT in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
CAT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 15x | $380 | -37% |
| Fair | 18x | $461 | -24% |
| Forward | 20x | $605 | — |
| Current | 24x | $605 | — |
| Expensive | 33x | $840 | +39% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CAT's PE is in its expensive range at 24x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 20x next year's earnings, in its fair range.
ALLE Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for ALLE, with profitability improving.
CAT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for CAT, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
ALLE Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $9.92 | +24% |
| Q3 2026 | $8.03 | +8.7% |
| Q2 2026 | $7.62 | +5.8% |
| Q1 2026 | $7.32 | +2.8% |
| Q4 2025 | $7.44 | +9.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $7.39 | +14% |
| Q2 2025 | $7.20 | +14% |
| Q1 2025 | $7.12 | +16% |
| Q4 2024 | $6.82 | +11% |
ALLE has the edge over CAT on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
CAT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $30.32 | +19% |
| Q3 2026 | $25.48 | +31% |
| Q2 2026 | $23.23 | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.08 | -2% |
| Q4 2025 | $18.81 | -15% |
| Q3 2025 | $19.46 | -9.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $19.64 | -10% |
| Q1 2025 | $20.50 | -7.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $22.05 | +9.6% |
CAT earned $25.48 per share over the past year, up 31% from the year before.
ALLE Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.2B | +9.6% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.2B | +13% |
| Q1 2026 | $1B | +9.7% |
| Q4 2025 | $1B | +9.3% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.1B | +11% |
| Q2 2025 | $1B | +5.8% |
| Q1 2025 | $941.9M | +5.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $945.6M | +5.4% |
ALLE's revenue has grown year over year for 10 quarters in a row: $1.2B last quarter, up 9.6% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 24% | +2.4 points |
| Q2 2026 | 22% | +0.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 19% | -2 points |
| Q4 2025 | 20% | +0.8 points |
| Q3 2025 | 22% | -0.4 points |
| Q2 2025 | 22% | -0.1 points |
| Q1 2025 | 21% | +1.6 points |
| Q4 2024 | 20% | +1.7 points |
ALLE has the edge over CAT on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
CAT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.7B | +17% |
| Q2 2026 | $20.5B | +24% |
| Q1 2026 | $17.4B | +22% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.1B | +18% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.6B | +9.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.6B | -0.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $14.2B | -9.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | -5% |
CAT's revenue has grown year over year for five quarters in a row: $20.7B last quarter, up 17% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 20% | +3.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 21% | +3.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 18% | -0.4 points |
| Q4 2025 | 14% | -4.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 17% | -2.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 17% | -3.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 18% | -4.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 18% | -0.3 points |
CAT's operating margin was 20% last quarter, up 3.1 points from the same quarter a year ago.
ALLE Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $278.6M | +33% |
| Q2 2026 | $180.5M | -6% |
| Q1 2026 | $80.3M | -3.7% |
| Q4 2025 | $200.5M | +2.9% |
| Q3 2025 | $209.8M | -1% |
| Q2 2025 | $192M | +26% |
| Q1 2025 | $83.4M | +249% |
| Q4 2024 | $194.9M | -0.6% |
ALLE has the edge over CAT on cash flow, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
CAT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.7B | +19% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.8B | +47% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.1B | +97% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.7B | +0.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.1B | -1.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.6B | -4.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $579M | -63% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.7B | -22% |
CAT generated $11.3B in free cash flow over the past year, up 26% from the year before.
ALLE Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.9% | -800K shares |
| 1 year | -1.5% | -1.3M shares |
| 3 years | -3.4% | -3M shares |
| 5 years | -5.6% | -5.1M shares |
| Available history | -9.7% | -9.1M shares |
ALLE has 85M diluted shares, down 1.5% from a year ago, with $280M in buybacks over the past year.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $119.8M |
| Q2 2026 | $120M |
| Q1 2026 | $40.6M |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q2 2025 | $40M |
| Q1 2025 | $40M |
| Q4 2024 | $100M |
ALLE spent $280M buying back its own shares over the past year, up 56% from the year before.
CAT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.3% | -1.6M shares |
| 1 year | -2.1% | -9.9M shares |
| 3 years | -10% | -51.7M shares |
| 5 years | -16% | -86.7M shares |
| Available history | -19% | -107M shares |
CAT has the edge over ALLE on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.2B |
| Q2 2026 | $1.5B |
| Q1 2026 | $5B |
| Q4 2025 | $340M |
| Q3 2025 | $362M |
| Q2 2025 | $828M |
| Q1 2025 | $3.7B |
| Q4 2024 | $640M |
CAT spent $8.1B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 47% from the year before.
ALLE Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 1.5x | Healthy |
| Q2 2026 | 1.7x | Healthy |
| Q1 2026 | 1.7x | Healthy |
| Q4 2025 | 1.6x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | 1.9x | Healthy |
| Q2 2025 | 1.5x | Healthy |
| Q1 2025 | 1.6x | Healthy |
| Q4 2024 | 1.7x | Healthy |
ALLE's net debt is about 1.5 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 1.9 years a year ago.
CAT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | -0.6x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | 1.6x | Healthy |
CAT has the edge over ALLE on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
ALLE Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 73.1 | Overbought |
| Stochastic | 88.2 | Overbought |
ALLE's weekly RSI is 73 (overbought) and its Stochastic is 88 (overbought).
CAT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 32.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 6.7 | Oversold |
CAT's weekly RSI is 33 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 7 (oversold).
ALLE PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | ALLE | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 24x | 24x | 1.7% below |
| PE % | 66 | 58 | 8 pts above |
ALLE has the edge over CAT on valuation relative to its sector.
CAT PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | CAT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 24x | 24x | 1.3% below |
| PE % | 69 | 58 | 11 pts above |
CAT is trading at 24x earnings, in line with the Industrials sector's median of 24x.
ALLE Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $169.6 | 12% above |
| 20 week MA | $159.9 | 19% above |
| 50 week MA | $153.9 | 24% above |
| 100 week MA | $151.0 | 26% above |
| 200 week MA | $135.9 | 40% above |
ALLE has the edge over CAT on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
CAT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $709.0 | 15% below |
| 20 week MA | $797.0 | 24% below |
| 50 week MA | $771.3 | 22% below |
| 100 week MA | $586.7 | 3.2% above |
| 200 week MA | $443.1 | 37% above |
CAT has pulled back, but its long-term trend is still up: it's below its 8-, 20- and 50-week averages, but 37% above its 200-week average.
ALLE Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $124.6 | $113.0 | -9.3% |
| 2021 | $113.0 | $127.3 | +13% |
| 2022 | $127.3 | $105.0 | -17% |
| 2023 | $105.0 | $126.7 | +21% |
| 2024 | $126.7 | $132.0 | +4.2% |
| 2025 | $132.0 | $160.8 | +22% |
| 2026 YTD | $160.8 | $190.1 | +18% |
ALLE has the edge over CAT on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
CAT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $148.3 | $179.6 | +21% |
| 2021 | $179.6 | $206.2 | +15% |
| 2022 | $206.2 | $239.9 | +16% |
| 2023 | $239.9 | $295.7 | +23% |
| 2024 | $295.7 | $364.9 | +23% |
| 2025 | $364.9 | $583.0 | +60% |
| 2026 YTD | $583.0 | $605.3 | +3.8% |
CAT has finished every year since 2020 higher, and it's up 3.8% so far in 2026.