ALK
Alaska Air Group, Inc.
ALK has lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
RDW
Redwire Corporation
RDW has the edge over ALK overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and stronger modeled upside.
ALK Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Under pressure | |
| Under pressure | |
| Weak |
ALK's revenue is currently healthy, but its profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are under pressure.
RDW Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Under pressure | |
| Under pressure | |
| Unavailable |
RDW's revenue is currently healthy, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
ALK PE Valuation
ALK has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
RDW PE Valuation
RDW has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
ALK Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Losses shrinking | |
| Growth | |
| Stable | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect ALK's losses to shrink, with revenue growing. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
RDW Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Losses shrinking | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
RDW has the edge over ALK on the outlook, with more favorable profitability expectations.
ALK Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$3.55 | -380% |
| Q2 2026 | -$1.61 | -165% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.49 | -82% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.83 | -73% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.27 | -49% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.49 | +43% |
| Q1 2025 | $2.78 | +47% |
| Q4 2024 | $3.08 | +68% |
ALK has swung to a loss: it lost $3.55 per share over the past year, after a profit the year before.
RDW Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$1.17 | +$2.01 |
| Q2 2026 | -$1.37 | +$1.89 |
| Q1 2026 | -$2.59 | -$0.32 |
| Q4 2025 | -$2.28 | +$0.07 |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.18 | -$1.97 |
| Q2 2025 | -$3.26 | -$2.28 |
| Q1 2025 | -$2.27 | -$1.55 |
| Q4 2024 | -$2.35 | -$1.62 |
RDW is still losing money, but far less than before: $1.17 per share over the past year, against $3.26 at its worst in mid-2025.
ALK Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $4.3B | +14% |
| Q2 2026 | $4.1B | +9.7% |
| Q1 2026 | $3.3B | +5.2% |
| Q4 2025 | $3.6B | +2.8% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.8B | +23% |
| Q2 2025 | $3.7B | +28% |
| Q1 2025 | $3.1B | +41% |
| Q4 2024 | $3.5B | +38% |
ALK's revenue has grown year over year for 22 quarters in a row: $4.3B last quarter, up 14% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 1.9% | -2 points |
| Q2 2026 | -4.1% | -12 points |
| Q1 2026 | -8.4% | -2.2 points |
| Q4 2025 | 2.1% | 0 points |
| Q3 2025 | 3.9% | -7.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 7.5% | -3.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | -6.3% | +1.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 2.1% | +0.8 points |
ALK has the edge over RDW on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
RDW Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $109M | +5.4% |
| Q2 2026 | $117.1M | +90% |
| Q1 2026 | $97M | +58% |
| Q4 2025 | $108.8M | +56% |
| Q3 2025 | $103.4M | +51% |
| Q2 2025 | $61.8M | -21% |
| Q1 2025 | $61.4M | -30% |
| Q4 2024 | $69.6M | +9.6% |
RDW's revenue has grown year over year for five quarters in a row: $109M last quarter, up 5.4% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -24% | +16 points |
| Q2 2026 | -19% | +130 points |
| Q1 2026 | -72% | -49 points |
| Q4 2025 | -75% | -48 points |
| Q3 2025 | -40% | -22 points |
| Q2 2025 | -149% | -140 points |
| Q1 2025 | -23% | -19 points |
| Q4 2024 | -27% | -17 points |
RDW's operating margin was −24% last quarter, up 16 points from the same quarter a year ago.
ALK Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $82M | -41% |
| Q2 2026 | $107M | -63% |
| Q1 2026 | $391M | -6.2% |
| Q4 2025 | $95M | -48% |
| Q3 2025 | $138M | -47% |
| Q2 2025 | $290M | -40% |
| Q1 2025 | $417M | +77% |
| Q4 2024 | $183M | +$739M |
ALK has the edge over RDW on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
RDW Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$65.3M | -$38.5M |
| Q2 2026 | -$33.5M | +$57.2M |
| Q1 2026 | -$11.4M | +$35.5M |
| Q4 2025 | -$26.5M | -659% |
| Q3 2025 | -$26.9M | -$7.6M |
| Q2 2025 | -$90.6M | -$80.2M |
| Q1 2025 | -$46.9M | -3996% |
| Q4 2024 | $4.7M | -65% |
RDW has burned cash in most quarters: −$137M over the past year, against −$160M the year before.
ALK Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.4% | +484K shares |
| 1 year | -5% | -5.9M shares |
| 3 years | -14% | -17.6M shares |
| 5 years | -12% | -15.6M shares |
| Available history | -10% | -12.7M shares |
ALK has the edge over RDW on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | — |
| Q2 2026 | $57M |
| Q1 2026 | $193M |
| Q4 2025 | $30M |
| Q3 2025 | $5M |
| Q2 2025 | $430M |
| Q1 2025 | $105M |
| Q4 2024 | $249M |
ALK spent $280M buying back its own shares over the past year, down 65% from the year before.
RDW Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +13% | +29.6M shares |
| 1 year | +179% | +160M shares |
| 3 years | +289% | +186M shares |
| 5 years | +319% | +190M shares |
RDW has 250M diluted shares, up 179% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q4 2020 | — |
| Q2 2020 | — |
| Q1 2020 | — |
ALK Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 9.6x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 8.5x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 4.5x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 4.3x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 3.9x | Elevated |
| Q2 2025 | 3.5x | Elevated |
| Q1 2025 | 3.2x | Elevated |
| Q4 2024 | 3.2x | Elevated |
ALK's net debt is about 9.6 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), up from 3.9 years a year ago.
RDW Net Leverage
RDW's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
ALK Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 45.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 28.9 | Neutral |
ALK's weekly RSI is 45 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 29 (neutral).
RDW Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 42.3 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 16.1 | Oversold |
RDW's weekly RSI is 42 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 16 (oversold).
ALK PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | ALK | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | N/A | 24x | — |
ALK has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
RDW PE vs Industrials Sector
RDW has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
ALK Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $37.9 | 3.1% above |
| 20 week MA | $42.3 | 7.6% below |
| 50 week MA | $44.7 | 13% below |
| 100 week MA | $49.7 | 21% below |
| 200 week MA | $46.1 | 15% below |
ALK has the edge over RDW on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
RDW Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $9.06 | 11% below |
| 20 week MA | $10.1 | 20% below |
| 50 week MA | $10.6 | 24% below |
| 100 week MA | $11.6 | 31% below |
| 200 week MA | $8.07 | 0.5% below |
RDW is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 0.5% below its 200-week average.
ALK Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $68.3 | $52.3 | -23% |
| 2021 | $52.3 | $53.0 | +1.5% |
| 2022 | $53.0 | $43.3 | -18% |
| 2023 | $43.3 | $39.1 | -9.8% |
| 2024 | $39.1 | $65.8 | +68% |
| 2025 | $65.8 | $51.5 | -22% |
| 2026 YTD | $51.5 | $39.1 | -24% |
ALK has finished lower in four of the last six years. It's down 24% so far in 2026.
RDW Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | $10.2 | $7.34 | -28% |
| 2022 | $7.34 | $1.92 | -74% |
| 2023 | $1.92 | $2.85 | +48% |
| 2024 | $2.85 | $17.1 | +501% |
| 2025 | $17.1 | $7.15 | -58% |
| 2026 YTD | $7.15 | $8.03 | +12% |
RDW has the edge over ALK on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.