ALK

Alaska Air Group, Inc.

47
Fundamentals49/ 100
Valuation50/ 100
Upside potential60/ 100
Risk potential30/ 100

ALK lost money over the past year, so it has no meaningful PE right now. Analysts expect losses to shrink, though they disagree widely on how much.

ALK Fundamentals

MetricStatus
Healthy
Under pressure
Under pressure
Weak

ALK's revenue is currently healthy, but its profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are under pressure.

ALK PE Valuation

ALK has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.

ALK Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
--
Losses shrinking
Growth
Stable
Limited
Low

Analysts expect ALK's losses to shrink, with revenue growing. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.

ALK Risk to reward

ScenarioChangePrice
Upside+45%$56.49
Downside-30%$27.20

Calculated from the latest close: $39.05 on Nov 12.

ALK's one-year upside scenario is somewhat larger than its downside: +45% against −30%.

ALK Earnings Per Share

Q4 2023: $1.83Q1 2024: $1.89Q2 2024: $1.74Q3 2024: $2.50Q4 2024: $3.08Q1 2025: $2.78Q2 2025: $2.49Q3 2025: $1.27Q4 2025: $0.83Q1 2026: $0.49Q2 2026: $-1.61Q3 2026: $-3.55
Q4 2023: $1.83Q1 2024: $1.89Q2 2024: $1.74Q3 2024: $2.50Q4 2024: $3.08Q1 2025: $2.78Q2 2025: $2.49Q3 2025: $1.27Q4 2025: $0.83Q1 2026: $0.49Q2 2026: $-1.61Q3 2026: $-3.55
QuarterTTM EPSYoY
Q3 2026-$3.55-380%
Q2 2026-$1.61-165%
Q1 2026$0.49-82%
Q4 2025$0.83-73%
Q3 2025$1.27-49%
Q2 2025$2.49+43%
Q1 2025$2.78+47%
Q4 2024$3.08+68%

ALK has swung to a loss: it lost $3.55 per share over the past year, after a profit the year before.

ALK Quarterly Revenue

Q4 2023: $2.6BQ1 2024: $2.2BQ2 2024: $2.9BQ3 2024: $3.1BQ4 2024: $3.5BQ1 2025: $3.1BQ2 2025: $3.7BQ3 2025: $3.8BQ4 2025: $3.6BQ1 2026: $3.3BQ2 2026: $4.1BQ3 2026: $4.3B
Q4 2023: $2.6BQ1 2024: $2.2BQ2 2024: $2.9BQ3 2024: $3.1BQ4 2024: $3.5BQ1 2025: $3.1BQ2 2025: $3.7BQ3 2025: $3.8BQ4 2025: $3.6BQ1 2026: $3.3BQ2 2026: $4.1BQ3 2026: $4.3B
QuarterRevenueYoY
Q3 2026$4.3B+14%
Q2 2026$4.1B+9.7%
Q1 2026$3.3B+5.2%
Q4 2025$3.6B+2.8%
Q3 2025$3.8B+23%
Q2 2025$3.7B+28%
Q1 2025$3.1B+41%
Q4 2024$3.5B+38%

ALK's revenue has grown year over year for 22 quarters in a row: $4.3B last quarter, up 14% from the same quarter a year ago.

ALK Free Cash Flow

Q4 2023: −$556MQ1 2024: $235MQ2 2024: $480MQ3 2024: $260MQ4 2024: $183MQ1 2025: $417MQ2 2025: $290MQ3 2025: $138MQ4 2025: $95MQ1 2026: $391MQ2 2026: $107MQ3 2026: $82M
Q4 2023: −$556MQ1 2024: $235MQ2 2024: $480MQ3 2024: $260MQ4 2024: $183MQ1 2025: $417MQ2 2025: $290MQ3 2025: $138MQ4 2025: $95MQ1 2026: $391MQ2 2026: $107MQ3 2026: $82M
QuarterFree cash flowYoY
Q3 2026$82M-41%
Q2 2026$107M-63%
Q1 2026$391M-6.2%
Q4 2025$95M-48%
Q3 2025$138M-47%
Q2 2025$290M-40%
Q1 2025$417M+77%
Q4 2024$183M+$739M

ALK still generates free cash flow, though less than at its 2021 peak: $675M over the past year.

ALK Total Shares

Q4 2023: 129MQ1 2024: 126MQ2 2024: 128MQ3 2024: 129MQ4 2024: 128MQ1 2025: 123MQ2 2025: 121MQ3 2025: 118MQ4 2025: 120MQ1 2026: 114MQ2 2026: 111MQ3 2026: 112M
Q4 2023: 129MQ1 2024: 126MQ2 2024: 128MQ3 2024: 129MQ4 2024: 128MQ1 2025: 123MQ2 2025: 121MQ3 2025: 118MQ4 2025: 120MQ1 2026: 114MQ2 2026: 111MQ3 2026: 112M
PeriodChange %Net change
Quarterly+0.4%+484K shares
1 year-5%-5.9M shares
3 years-14%-17.6M shares
5 years-12%-15.6M shares
Available history-10%-12.7M shares

ALK has 112M diluted shares, down 5% from a year ago, with $280M in buybacks over the past year.

ALK Net Leverage

Q4 2023: 2.7xQ1 2024: 1.9xQ2 2024: 1.8xQ3 2024: 3.5xQ4 2024: 3.2xQ1 2025: 3.2xQ2 2025: 3.5xQ3 2025: 3.9xQ4 2025: 4.3xQ1 2026: 4.5xQ2 2026: 8.5xQ3 2026: 9.6x
Q4 2023: 2.7xQ1 2024: 1.9xQ2 2024: 1.8xQ3 2024: 3.5xQ4 2024: 3.2xQ1 2025: 3.2xQ2 2025: 3.5xQ3 2025: 3.9xQ4 2025: 4.3xQ1 2026: 4.5xQ2 2026: 8.5xQ3 2026: 9.6x
QuarterNet LeverageStatus
Q3 20269.6xHigh
Q2 20268.5xHigh
Q1 20264.5xHigh
Q4 20254.3xHigh
Q3 20253.9xElevated
Q2 20253.5xElevated
Q1 20253.2xElevated
Q4 20243.2xElevated

ALK's net debt is about 9.6 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), up from 3.9 years a year ago.

ALK Weekly Momentum

MetricValueStatus
RSI45.0Neutral
Stochastic28.9Neutral

ALK's weekly RSI is 45 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 29 (neutral).

ALK PE vs Industrials Sector

MetricALKSector medianRelative
PEN/A24x—

ALK has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.

ALK Weekly Moving Averages

Moving averageMA priceRelative
8 week MA$37.93.1% above
20 week MA$42.37.6% below
50 week MA$44.713% below
100 week MA$49.721% below
200 week MA$46.115% below

ALK has bounced recently, but its long-term trend is still down: it's above its 8-week average, but 15% below its 200-week average.

ALK Yearly ROI

YearStart priceEnd priceROI
2020$68.3$52.3-23%
2021$52.3$53.0+1.5%
2022$53.0$43.3-18%
2023$43.3$39.1-9.8%
2024$39.1$65.8+68%
2025$65.8$51.5-22%
2026 YTD$51.5$39.1-24%

ALK has finished lower in four of the last six years. It's down 24% so far in 2026.

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