ALK
Alaska Air Group, Inc.
ALK offers stronger valuation, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
CAT
Caterpillar Inc.
CAT has the edge over ALK overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and stronger modeled upside.
ALK Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Under pressure | |
| Under pressure | |
| Weak |
ALK's revenue is currently healthy, but its profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are under pressure.
CAT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
CAT's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
ALK PE Valuation
ALK has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
CAT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 15x | $380 | -37% |
| Fair | 18x | $461 | -24% |
| Forward | 20x | $605 | — |
| Current | 24x | $605 | — |
| Expensive | 33x | $840 | +39% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CAT's PE is in its expensive range at 24x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 20x next year's earnings, in its fair range.
ALK Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Losses shrinking | |
| Growth | |
| Stable | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect ALK's losses to shrink, with revenue growing. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
CAT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
CAT has the edge over ALK on the outlook, with more favorable profitability expectations.
ALK Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$3.55 | -380% |
| Q2 2026 | -$1.61 | -165% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.49 | -82% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.83 | -73% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.27 | -49% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.49 | +43% |
| Q1 2025 | $2.78 | +47% |
| Q4 2024 | $3.08 | +68% |
ALK has swung to a loss: it lost $3.55 per share over the past year, after a profit the year before.
CAT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $29.73 | +17% |
| Q3 2026 | $25.48 | +31% |
| Q2 2026 | $23.23 | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.08 | -2% |
| Q4 2025 | $18.81 | -15% |
| Q3 2025 | $19.46 | -9.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $19.64 | -10% |
| Q1 2025 | $20.50 | -7.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $22.05 | +9.6% |
CAT has the edge over ALK on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
ALK Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $4.3B | +14% |
| Q2 2026 | $4.1B | +9.7% |
| Q1 2026 | $3.3B | +5.2% |
| Q4 2025 | $3.6B | +2.8% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.8B | +23% |
| Q2 2025 | $3.7B | +28% |
| Q1 2025 | $3.1B | +41% |
| Q4 2024 | $3.5B | +38% |
ALK has the edge over CAT on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 1.9% | -2 points |
| Q2 2026 | -4.1% | -12 points |
| Q1 2026 | -8.4% | -2.2 points |
| Q4 2025 | 2.1% | 0 points |
| Q3 2025 | 3.9% | -7.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 7.5% | -3.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | -6.3% | +1.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 2.1% | +0.8 points |
ALK's operating margin was 1.9% last quarter, down 2 points from the same quarter a year ago.
CAT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.7B | +17% |
| Q2 2026 | $20.5B | +24% |
| Q1 2026 | $17.4B | +22% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.1B | +18% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.6B | +9.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.6B | -0.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $14.2B | -9.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | -5% |
CAT's revenue has grown year over year for five quarters in a row: $20.7B last quarter, up 17% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 20% | +3.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 21% | +3.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 18% | -0.4 points |
| Q4 2025 | 14% | -4.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 17% | -2.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 17% | -3.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 18% | -4.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 18% | -0.3 points |
CAT has the edge over ALK on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
ALK Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $82M | -41% |
| Q2 2026 | $107M | -63% |
| Q1 2026 | $391M | -6.2% |
| Q4 2025 | $95M | -48% |
| Q3 2025 | $138M | -47% |
| Q2 2025 | $290M | -40% |
| Q1 2025 | $417M | +77% |
| Q4 2024 | $183M | +$739M |
ALK still generates free cash flow, though less than at its 2021 peak: $675M over the past year.
CAT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.7B | +19% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.8B | +47% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.1B | +97% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.7B | +0.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.1B | -1.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.6B | -4.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $579M | -63% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.7B | -22% |
CAT has the edge over ALK on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
ALK Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.4% | +484K shares |
| 1 year | -5% | -5.9M shares |
| 3 years | -14% | -17.6M shares |
| 5 years | -12% | -15.6M shares |
| Available history | -10% | -12.7M shares |
ALK has the edge over CAT on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | — |
| Q2 2026 | $57M |
| Q1 2026 | $193M |
| Q4 2025 | $30M |
| Q3 2025 | $5M |
| Q2 2025 | $430M |
| Q1 2025 | $105M |
| Q4 2024 | $249M |
ALK spent $280M buying back its own shares over the past year, down 65% from the year before.
CAT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.3% | -1.6M shares |
| 1 year | -2.1% | -9.9M shares |
| 3 years | -10% | -51.7M shares |
| 5 years | -16% | -86.7M shares |
| Available history | -19% | -107M shares |
CAT has 461M diluted shares, down 2.1% from a year ago, with $8.1B in buybacks over the past year.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.2B |
| Q2 2026 | $1.5B |
| Q1 2026 | $5B |
| Q4 2025 | $340M |
| Q3 2025 | $362M |
| Q2 2025 | $828M |
| Q1 2025 | $3.7B |
| Q4 2024 | $640M |
CAT spent $8.1B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 47% from the year before.
ALK Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 9.6x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 8.5x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 4.5x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 4.3x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 3.9x | Elevated |
| Q2 2025 | 3.5x | Elevated |
| Q1 2025 | 3.2x | Elevated |
| Q4 2024 | 3.2x | Elevated |
ALK's net debt is about 9.6 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), up from 3.9 years a year ago.
CAT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | -0.6x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | 1.6x | Healthy |
CAT has the edge over ALK on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
ALK Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 45.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 28.9 | Neutral |
ALK's weekly RSI is 45 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 29 (neutral).
CAT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 32.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 6.7 | Oversold |
CAT's weekly RSI is 33 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 7 (oversold).
ALK PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | ALK | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | N/A | 24x | — |
ALK has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
CAT PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | CAT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 24x | 24x | 1.1% below |
| PE % | 69 | 58 | 11 pts above |
CAT is trading at 24x earnings, in line with the Industrials sector's median of 24x.
ALK Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $37.9 | 3.1% above |
| 20 week MA | $42.3 | 7.6% below |
| 50 week MA | $44.7 | 13% below |
| 100 week MA | $49.7 | 21% below |
| 200 week MA | $46.1 | 15% below |
ALK has bounced recently, but its long-term trend is still down: it's above its 8-week average, but 15% below its 200-week average.
CAT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $709.0 | 15% below |
| 20 week MA | $797.0 | 24% below |
| 50 week MA | $771.3 | 22% below |
| 100 week MA | $586.7 | 3.2% above |
| 200 week MA | $443.1 | 37% above |
CAT has the edge over ALK on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
ALK Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $68.3 | $52.3 | -23% |
| 2021 | $52.3 | $53.0 | +1.5% |
| 2022 | $53.0 | $43.3 | -18% |
| 2023 | $43.3 | $39.1 | -9.8% |
| 2024 | $39.1 | $65.8 | +68% |
| 2025 | $65.8 | $51.5 | -22% |
| 2026 YTD | $51.5 | $39.1 | -24% |
ALK has finished lower in four of the last six years. It's down 24% so far in 2026.
CAT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $148.3 | $179.6 | +21% |
| 2021 | $179.6 | $206.2 | +15% |
| 2022 | $206.2 | $239.9 | +16% |
| 2023 | $239.9 | $295.7 | +23% |
| 2024 | $295.7 | $364.9 | +23% |
| 2025 | $364.9 | $583.0 | +60% |
| 2026 YTD | $583.0 | $605.3 | +3.8% |
CAT has the edge over ALK on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.