ALGN

Align Technology, Inc.

70
Fundamentals69/ 100
Valuation72/ 100
Upside potential63/ 100
Risk potential18/ 100

ALGN has the edge over NVO overall, supported by stronger valuation and stronger fundamentals.

NVO

Novo Nordisk A/S

48
Fundamentals55/ 100
Valuation50/ 100
Upside potential58/ 100
Risk potential26/ 100

NVO trails on the overall score without a compensating advantage in the available component scores.

ALGN Fundamentals

MetricStatus
Stable
Healthy
Healthy
Strong

ALGN's profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its revenue is stable.

NVO Fundamentals

MetricStatus
Healthy
Strong
Stable
Healthy

NVO's revenue, profitability and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its cash flow is stable.

ALGN PE Valuation

CHEAPFAIREXPENSIVE29x58x87x116x
CHEAPFAIREXPENSIVE29x58x87x116x
LevelPEPriceVs current
Forward14x$167—
Current24x$167—
Cheap25x$173+3.5%
Fair35x$242+45%
Expensive69x$470+182%

Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.

ALGN's PE is in its cheap range at 24x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 14x next year's earnings.

NVO PE Valuation

CHEAPFAIREXPENSIVE14x28x42x56x
CHEAPFAIREXPENSIVE14x28x42x56x
LevelPEPriceVs current
Current10x$40.65—
Cheap14x$53.56+32%
Fair27x$103+154%
Expensive39x$152+273%

Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.

NVO has the edge over ALGN in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.

ALGN Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Strongly improving
Growth
Stable
Strongly improving
Limited
High

Analysts expect ALGN's earnings to grow and its profitability to improve, with its revenue holding steady.

NVO Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
--
Stable
Growth
Weakening
Limited
Low

Analysts expect NVO's revenue to grow, but its profitability to weaken. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.

ALGN Risk to reward

ScenarioChangePrice
Upside+31%$218.07
Downside-18%$137.19

Calculated from the latest close: $166.97 on Nov 12.

ALGN has a better modeled risk to reward balance than NVO, with more potential upside relative to its potential downside.

NVO Risk to reward

ScenarioChangePrice
Upside+36%$55.48
Downside-26%$29.89

Calculated from the latest close: $40.65 on Nov 12.

NVO trails ALGN on modeled risk to reward, with less potential upside relative to its potential downside.

ALGN Earnings Per Share

Q4 2023: $5.81Q1 2024: $6.06Q2 2024: $5.88Q3 2024: $5.85Q4 2024: $5.62Q1 2025: $5.50Q2 2025: $5.94Q3 2025: $5.17Q4 2025: $5.65Q1 2026: $5.95Q2 2026: $5.74Q3 2026: $6.86Forward: $11.89
Q4 2023: $5.81Q1 2024: $6.06Q2 2024: $5.88Q3 2024: $5.85Q4 2024: $5.62Q1 2025: $5.50Q2 2025: $5.94Q3 2025: $5.17Q4 2025: $5.65Q1 2026: $5.95Q2 2026: $5.74Q3 2026: $6.86Forward: $11.89
QuarterTTM EPSYoY
Forward$11.89+73%
Q3 2026$6.86+33%
Q2 2026$5.74-3.4%
Q1 2026$5.95+8.2%
Q4 2025$5.65+0.5%
Q3 2025$5.17-12%
Q2 2025$5.94+1%
Q1 2025$5.50-9.2%
Q4 2024$5.62-3.3%

ALGN's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $6.86 over the past year, against $23.85 in early 2020.

NVO Earnings Per Share

Q3 2023: $2.48Q4 2023: $2.77Q1 2024: $2.96Q2 2024: $2.98Q3 2024: $3.15Q4 2024: $3.36Q1 2025: $3.49Q2 2025: $3.71Q3 2025: $3.47Q4 2025: $3.42Q1 2026: $4.07Q2 2026: $3.89
Q3 2023: $2.48Q4 2023: $2.77Q1 2024: $2.96Q2 2024: $2.98Q3 2024: $3.15Q4 2024: $3.36Q1 2025: $3.49Q2 2025: $3.71Q3 2025: $3.47Q4 2025: $3.42Q1 2026: $4.07Q2 2026: $3.89
QuarterTTM EPSYoY
Q2 2026$3.89+4.9%
Q1 2026$4.07+17%
Q4 2025$3.42+1.8%
Q3 2025$3.47+10%
Q2 2025$3.71+24%
Q1 2025$3.49+18%
Q4 2024$3.36+21%
Q3 2024$3.15+27%

NVO has the edge over ALGN on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.

ALGN Quarterly Revenue

Q4 2023: $957MQ1 2024: $997MQ2 2024: $1BQ3 2024: $978MQ4 2024: $995MQ1 2025: $979MQ2 2025: $1BQ3 2025: $996MQ4 2025: $1BQ1 2026: $1BQ2 2026: $1.1BQ3 2026: $1B
Q4 2023: $957MQ1 2024: $997MQ2 2024: $1BQ3 2024: $978MQ4 2024: $995MQ1 2025: $979MQ2 2025: $1BQ3 2025: $996MQ4 2025: $1BQ1 2026: $1BQ2 2026: $1.1BQ3 2026: $1B
QuarterRevenueYoY
Q3 2026$1B+1.9%
Q2 2026$1.1B+4.3%
Q1 2026$1B+6.2%
Q4 2025$1B+5.3%
Q3 2025$995.7M+1.8%
Q2 2025$1B-1.6%
Q1 2025$979.3M-1.8%
Q4 2024$995.2M+4%

ALGN's revenue has grown year over year for five quarters in a row: $1B last quarter, up 1.9% from the same quarter a year ago.

NVO Quarterly Revenue

Q3 2023: $8.7BQ4 2023: $9.8BQ1 2024: $9.7BQ2 2024: $10.1BQ3 2024: $10.6BQ4 2024: $12.7BQ1 2025: $11.6BQ2 2025: $11.4BQ3 2025: $11.1BQ4 2025: $11.8BQ1 2026: $14.4BQ2 2026: $11.7B
Q3 2023: $8.7BQ4 2023: $9.8BQ1 2024: $9.7BQ2 2024: $10.1BQ3 2024: $10.6BQ4 2024: $12.7BQ1 2025: $11.6BQ2 2025: $11.4BQ3 2025: $11.1BQ4 2025: $11.8BQ1 2026: $14.4BQ2 2026: $11.7B
QuarterRevenueYoY
Q2 2026$11.7B+2.1%
Q1 2026$14.4B+24%
Q4 2025$11.8B-7.6%
Q3 2025$11.1B+5.1%
Q2 2025$11.4B+13%
Q1 2025$11.6B+19%
Q4 2024$12.7B+30%
Q3 2024$10.6B+21%

NVO has the edge over ALGN on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.

ALGN Free Cash Flow

Q4 2023: $13MQ1 2024: $19MQ2 2024: $106MQ3 2024: $234MQ4 2024: $263MQ1 2025: $27MQ2 2025: $107MQ3 2025: $169MQ4 2025: $187MQ1 2026: $120MQ2 2026: $157MQ3 2026: $138M
Q4 2023: $13MQ1 2024: $19MQ2 2024: $106MQ3 2024: $234MQ4 2024: $263MQ1 2025: $27MQ2 2025: $107MQ3 2025: $169MQ4 2025: $187MQ1 2026: $120MQ2 2026: $157MQ3 2026: $138M
QuarterFree cash flowYoY
Q3 2026$137.9M-18%
Q2 2026$157.1M+47%
Q1 2026$120.3M+339%
Q4 2025$187.3M-29%
Q3 2025$169M-28%
Q2 2025$107.2M+0.7%
Q1 2025$27.4M+42%
Q4 2024$263.1M+1851%

ALGN still generates free cash flow, though less than at its 2020 peak: $603M over the past year.

NVO Free Cash Flow

Q3 2023: $4.5BQ4 2023: −$1BQ1 2024: $788MQ2 2024: $5.5BQ3 2024: $4.7BQ4 2024: −$633MQ1 2025: $1.5BQ2 2025: $3.6BQ3 2025: $4.6BQ4 2025: −$5.4BQ1 2026: $1.8BQ2 2026: $6.3B
Q3 2023: $4.5BQ4 2023: −$1BQ1 2024: $788MQ2 2024: $5.5BQ3 2024: $4.7BQ4 2024: −$633MQ1 2025: $1.5BQ2 2025: $3.6BQ3 2025: $4.6BQ4 2025: −$5.4BQ1 2026: $1.8BQ2 2026: $6.3B
QuarterFree cash flowYoY
Q2 2026$6.3B+73%
Q1 2026$1.8B+20%
Q4 2025-$5.4B-$4.7B
Q3 2025$4.6B-2.1%
Q2 2025$3.6B-34%
Q1 2025$1.5B+89%
Q4 2024-$632.6M+$390.5M
Q3 2024$4.7B+3.3%

NVO still generates free cash flow, though less than at its 2026 peak: $7.3B over the past year.

ALGN Total Shares

Q4 2023: 77MQ1 2024: 75MQ2 2024: 75MQ3 2024: 75MQ4 2024: 75MQ1 2025: 74MQ2 2025: 73MQ3 2025: 72MQ4 2025: 73MQ1 2026: 72MQ2 2026: 72MQ3 2026: 71M
Q4 2023: 77MQ1 2024: 75MQ2 2024: 75MQ3 2024: 75MQ4 2024: 75MQ1 2025: 74MQ2 2025: 73MQ3 2025: 72MQ4 2025: 73MQ1 2026: 72MQ2 2026: 72MQ3 2026: 71M
PeriodChange %Net change
Quarterly-0.7%-505K shares
1 year-1.9%-1.4M shares
3 years-7.6%-5.8M shares
5 years-11%-8.5M shares
Available history-11%-9.1M shares

ALGN has the edge over NVO on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.

NVO Total Shares

Q3 2023: 4.5BQ4 2023: 4.5BQ1 2024: 4.5BQ2 2024: 4.5BQ3 2024: 4.5BQ4 2024: 4.5BQ1 2025: 4.4BQ2 2025: 4.4BQ3 2025: 4.4BQ4 2025: 4.4BQ1 2026: 4.4BQ2 2026: 4.4B
Q3 2023: 4.5BQ4 2023: 4.5BQ1 2024: 4.5BQ2 2024: 4.5BQ3 2024: 4.5BQ4 2024: 4.5BQ1 2025: 4.4BQ2 2025: 4.4BQ3 2025: 4.4BQ4 2025: 4.4BQ1 2026: 4.4BQ2 2026: 4.4B
PeriodChange %Net change
Quarterly-0.3%-12.9M shares
1 year-0.2%-11M shares
3 years-1.5%-66.8M shares
5 years-3.8%-177M shares
Available history-6.5%-311M shares

NVO has 4.4B diluted shares, about the same as a year ago.

ALGN Net Leverage

Q4 2023: -1.2xQ1 2024: -1.1xQ2 2024: -1.0xQ3 2024: -1.3xQ4 2024: -1.4xQ1 2025: -1.2xQ2 2025: -1.2xQ3 2025: -1.4xQ4 2025: -1.4xQ1 2026: -1.3xQ2 2026: -1.4xQ3 2026: -1.3x
Q4 2023: -1.2xQ1 2024: -1.1xQ2 2024: -1.0xQ3 2024: -1.3xQ4 2024: -1.4xQ1 2025: -1.2xQ2 2025: -1.2xQ3 2025: -1.4xQ4 2025: -1.4xQ1 2026: -1.3xQ2 2026: -1.4xQ3 2026: -1.3x
QuarterNet LeverageStatus
Q3 2026-1.3xNet Cash
Q2 2026-1.4xNet Cash
Q1 2026-1.3xNet Cash
Q4 2025-1.4xNet Cash
Q3 2025-1.4xNet Cash
Q2 2025-1.2xNet Cash
Q1 2025-1.2xNet Cash
Q4 2024-1.4xNet Cash

ALGN has the edge over NVO on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.

NVO Net Leverage

Q3 2023: -0.0xQ4 2023: 0.1xQ1 2024: 0.2xQ2 2024: 0.0xQ3 2024: -0.0xQ4 2024: 0.6xQ1 2025: 0.5xQ2 2025: 0.5xQ3 2025: 0.4xQ4 2025: 0.6xQ1 2026: 0.7xQ2 2026: 0.5x
Q3 2023: -0.0xQ4 2023: 0.1xQ1 2024: 0.2xQ2 2024: 0.0xQ3 2024: -0.0xQ4 2024: 0.6xQ1 2025: 0.5xQ2 2025: 0.5xQ3 2025: 0.4xQ4 2025: 0.6xQ1 2026: 0.7xQ2 2026: 0.5x
QuarterNet LeverageStatus
Q2 20260.5xVery low
Q1 20260.7xVery low
Q4 20250.6xVery low
Q3 20250.4xVery low
Q2 20250.5xVery low
Q1 20250.5xVery low
Q4 20240.6xVery low
Q3 2024-0.0xVery low

NVO's net debt is less than a year of its operating earnings (EBITDA).

ALGN Weekly Momentum

MetricValueStatus
RSI53.6Neutral
Stochastic50.8Neutral

ALGN's weekly RSI is 54 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 51 (neutral).

NVO Weekly Momentum

MetricValueStatus
RSI43.0Neutral
Stochastic27.0Neutral

NVO's weekly RSI is 43 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 27 (neutral).

ALGN PE vs Healthcare Sector

MetricALGNSector medianRelative
PE24x26x5.8% below
PE %162913 pts below

ALGN is trading at 24x earnings, in line with the Healthcare sector's median of 26x.

NVO PE vs Healthcare Sector

MetricNVOSector medianRelative
PE10x26x60% below
PE %62923 pts below

NVO has the edge over ALGN on valuation relative to its sector.

ALGN Weekly Moving Averages

Moving averageMA priceRelative
8 week MA$152.29.7% above
20 week MA$161.43.5% above
50 week MA$168.00.6% below
100 week MA$169.41.4% below
200 week MA$225.126% below

ALGN has the edge over NVO on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.

NVO Weekly Moving Averages

Moving averageMA priceRelative
8 week MA$39.23.7% above
20 week MA$43.97.4% below
50 week MA$45.310% below
100 week MA$56.328% below
200 week MA$80.750% below

NVO has bounced recently, but its long-term trend is still down: it's above its 8-week average, but 50% below its 200-week average.

ALGN Yearly ROI

YearStart priceEnd priceROI
2020$277.6$528.0+90%
2021$528.0$654.0+24%
2022$654.0$203.7-69%
2023$203.7$274.0+35%
2024$274.0$211.4-23%
2025$211.4$158.4-25%
2026 YTD$158.4$167.0+5.4%

ALGN has the edge over NVO on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.

NVO Yearly ROI

YearStart priceEnd priceROI
2020$29.1$34.7+19%
2021$34.7$54.2+56%
2022$54.2$67.0+24%
2023$67.0$103.5+54%
2024$103.5$87.4-16%
2025$87.4$52.4-40%
2026 YTD$52.4$40.7-22%

NVO has finished higher in four of the last six years, two of them by more than 50%. It's down 22% so far in 2026.

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