ALGN
Align Technology, Inc.
ALGN offers stronger valuation, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
LLY
Eli Lilly and Company
LLY has the edge over ALGN overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and stronger modeled upside.
ALGN Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Strong |
ALGN's profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its revenue is stable.
LLY Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Healthy |
LLY's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
ALGN PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 14x | $167 | — |
| Current | 24x | $167 | — |
| Cheap | 25x | $173 | +3.5% |
| Fair | 35x | $242 | +45% |
| Expensive | 69x | $470 | +182% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
ALGN has the edge over LLY in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
LLY PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 27x | $845 | -41% |
| Forward | 30x | $1,427 | — |
| Current | 46x | $1,427 | — |
| Fair | 48x | $1,466 | +2.7% |
| Expensive | 85x | $2,612 | +83% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
LLY's PE is in its fair range at 46x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 30x next year's earnings, in its cheap range.
ALGN Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Growth | |
| Stable | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect ALGN's earnings to grow and its profitability to improve, with its revenue holding steady.
LLY Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
LLY has the edge over ALGN on the outlook, with more favorable revenue expectations.
ALGN Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $11.89 | +73% |
| Q3 2026 | $6.86 | +33% |
| Q2 2026 | $5.74 | -3.4% |
| Q1 2026 | $5.95 | +8.2% |
| Q4 2025 | $5.65 | +0.5% |
| Q3 2025 | $5.17 | -12% |
| Q2 2025 | $5.94 | +1% |
| Q1 2025 | $5.50 | -9.2% |
| Q4 2024 | $5.62 | -3.3% |
ALGN's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $6.86 over the past year, against $23.85 in early 2020.
LLY Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $46.82 | +52% |
| Q3 2026 | $30.81 | +51% |
| Q2 2026 | $29.80 | +95% |
| Q1 2026 | $28.15 | +129% |
| Q4 2025 | $22.95 | +96% |
| Q3 2025 | $20.44 | +121% |
| Q2 2025 | $15.30 | +88% |
| Q1 2025 | $12.29 | +81% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.71 | +102% |
LLY has the edge over ALGN on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
ALGN Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1B | +1.9% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.1B | +4.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $1B | +6.2% |
| Q4 2025 | $1B | +5.3% |
| Q3 2025 | $995.7M | +1.8% |
| Q2 2025 | $1B | -1.6% |
| Q1 2025 | $979.3M | -1.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $995.2M | +4% |
ALGN's revenue has grown year over year for five quarters in a row: $1B last quarter, up 1.9% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 17% | +7 points |
| Q2 2026 | 15% | -1.5 points |
| Q1 2026 | 14% | +0.3 points |
| Q4 2025 | 15% | +0.3 points |
| Q3 2025 | 9.7% | -6.9 points |
| Q2 2025 | 16% | +1.8 points |
| Q1 2025 | 13% | -2.1 points |
| Q4 2024 | 14% | -3.4 points |
ALGN's operating margin was 17% last quarter, up 7 points from the same quarter a year ago.
LLY Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $24.4B | +39% |
| Q2 2026 | $23B | +48% |
| Q1 2026 | $19.8B | +56% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.3B | +43% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.6B | +54% |
| Q2 2025 | $15.6B | +38% |
| Q1 2025 | $12.7B | +45% |
| Q4 2024 | $13.5B | +45% |
LLY has the edge over ALGN on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 34% | -6.6 points |
| Q2 2026 | 40% | -3.3 points |
| Q1 2026 | 45% | +18 points |
| Q4 2025 | 43% | +5.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 41% | +27 points |
| Q2 2025 | 44% | +12 points |
| Q1 2025 | 27% | -1.8 points |
| Q4 2024 | 37% | +10 points |
LLY has the edge over ALGN on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
ALGN Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $137.9M | -18% |
| Q2 2026 | $157.1M | +47% |
| Q1 2026 | $120.3M | +339% |
| Q4 2025 | $187.3M | -29% |
| Q3 2025 | $169M | -28% |
| Q2 2025 | $107.2M | +0.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $27.4M | +42% |
| Q4 2024 | $263.1M | +1851% |
ALGN still generates free cash flow, though less than at its 2020 peak: $603M over the past year.
LLY Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $8.2B | +22% |
| Q2 2026 | $7.8B | +458% |
| Q1 2026 | $3B | +1826% |
| Q4 2025 | $677.9M | -31% |
| Q3 2025 | $6.7B | +186% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.4B | +476% |
| Q1 2025 | $156.1M | -13% |
| Q4 2024 | $977.8M | +$2.4B |
LLY has the edge over ALGN on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
ALGN Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.7% | -505K shares |
| 1 year | -1.9% | -1.4M shares |
| 3 years | -7.6% | -5.8M shares |
| 5 years | -11% | -8.5M shares |
| Available history | -11% | -9.1M shares |
ALGN has the edge over LLY on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $103.1M |
| Q2 2026 | $66.9M |
| Q1 2026 | $31.2M |
| Q4 2025 | $97.2M |
| Q3 2025 | $71.6M |
| Q2 2025 | $96M |
| Q1 2025 | $201.1M |
| Q4 2024 | $202.9M |
ALGN spent $298M buying back its own shares over the past year, down 48% from the year before.
LLY Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | 0% | -300K shares |
| 1 year | -0.6% | -5.4M shares |
| 3 years | -0.7% | -6.4M shares |
| 5 years | -1.9% | -17.4M shares |
| Available history | -4.5% | -42.3M shares |
LLY has 893M diluted shares, down 0.6% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $377M |
| Q2 2026 | $1.6B |
| Q1 2026 | $2.4B |
| Q4 2025 | $1.5B |
| Q3 2025 | $708.1M |
| Q2 2025 | $692.2M |
| Q1 2025 | $1.2B |
| Q4 2024 | $2.1B |
LLY spent $5.8B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 26% from the year before.
ALGN Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -1.3x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -1.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -1.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -1.4x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -1.4x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -1.2x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -1.2x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -1.4x | Net Cash |
ALGN has the edge over LLY on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
LLY Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 1.2x | Healthy |
| Q2 2026 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q1 2026 | 1.2x | Healthy |
| Q4 2025 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q2 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q1 2025 | 2.3x | Moderate |
| Q4 2024 | 2.1x | Moderate |
LLY's net debt is about 1.2 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), about the same as a year ago.
ALGN Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 53.6 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 50.8 | Neutral |
ALGN's weekly RSI is 54 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 51 (neutral).
LLY Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 68.3 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 84.1 | Overbought |
LLY's weekly RSI is 68 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 84 (overbought).
ALGN PE vs Healthcare Sector
| Metric | ALGN | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 24x | 26x | 5.8% below |
| PE % | 16 | 29 | 13 pts below |
ALGN has the edge over LLY on valuation relative to its sector.
LLY PE vs Healthcare Sector
| Metric | LLY | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 46x | 26x | 79% above |
| PE % | 48 | 29 | 19 pts above |
LLY is trading at 46x earnings, a 79% premium to the Healthcare sector's median of 26x.
ALGN Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $152.2 | 9.7% above |
| 20 week MA | $161.4 | 3.5% above |
| 50 week MA | $168.0 | 0.6% below |
| 100 week MA | $169.4 | 1.4% below |
| 200 week MA | $225.1 | 26% below |
ALGN has bounced recently, but its long-term trend is still down: it's above its 8- and 20-week averages, but 26% below its 200-week average.
LLY Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $1,279.4 | 12% above |
| 20 week MA | $1,218.8 | 17% above |
| 50 week MA | $1,102.2 | 29% above |
| 100 week MA | $954.1 | 50% above |
| 200 week MA | $797.5 | 79% above |
LLY has the edge over ALGN on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
ALGN Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $277.6 | $528.0 | +90% |
| 2021 | $528.0 | $654.0 | +24% |
| 2022 | $654.0 | $203.7 | -69% |
| 2023 | $203.7 | $274.0 | +35% |
| 2024 | $274.0 | $211.4 | -23% |
| 2025 | $211.4 | $158.4 | -25% |
| 2026 YTD | $158.4 | $167.0 | +5.4% |
ALGN has finished lower in three of the last six years. It's up 5.4% so far in 2026.
LLY Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $131.5 | $166.7 | +27% |
| 2021 | $166.7 | $273.1 | +64% |
| 2022 | $273.1 | $367.9 | +35% |
| 2023 | $367.9 | $582.9 | +58% |
| 2024 | $582.9 | $783.2 | +34% |
| 2025 | $783.2 | $1,077.8 | +38% |
| 2026 YTD | $1,077.8 | $1,427.3 | +32% |
LLY has the edge over ALGN on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.