ALEC
Alector, Inc.
ALEC offers stronger fundamentals, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
UNH
UnitedHealth Group Incorporated
UNH has a slight edge over ALEC overall, supported by lower modeled downside and stronger modeled upside.
ALEC Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Under pressure | |
| Strong |
ALEC's revenue, profitability and balance sheet are currently strong, but its cash flow is under pressure.
UNH Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| Healthy |
UNH's cash flow and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its revenue and profitability are stable.
ALEC PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current | 7x | $2.45 | — |
| Cheap | 17x | $6.09 | +149% |
| Fair | 19x | $6.80 | +178% |
| Expensive | 23x | $8.15 | +233% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
ALEC has the edge over UNH in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
UNH PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 18x | $405 | — |
| Cheap | 19x | $325 | -20% |
| Fair | 23x | $410 | +1.2% |
| Current | 23x | $405 | — |
| Expensive | 30x | $526 | +30% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
UNH's PE is in its fair range at 23x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 18x next year's earnings, in its cheap range.
ALEC Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Losses shrinking | |
| Strong growth | |
| -- | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect ALEC's losses to shrink, with revenue growing. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
UNH Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Stable | |
| Improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
Analysts expect UNH's earnings to grow and its profitability to improve, with its revenue holding steady. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
ALEC Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $0.35 | +$1.42 |
| Q2 2026 | -$1.10 | +$0.06 |
| Q1 2026 | -$1.19 | +$0.07 |
| Q4 2025 | -$1.39 | -$0.16 |
| Q3 2025 | -$1.07 | +$0.64 |
| Q2 2025 | -$1.16 | +$0.65 |
| Q1 2025 | -$1.26 | +$0.13 |
| Q4 2024 | -$1.23 | +$0.33 |
ALEC has the edge over UNH on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
UNH Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $22.65 | +29% |
| Q3 2026 | $17.55 | -8.5% |
| Q2 2026 | $15.58 | -33% |
| Q1 2026 | $13.28 | -44% |
| Q4 2025 | $13.23 | -15% |
| Q3 2025 | $19.17 | +25% |
| Q2 2025 | $23.09 | +53% |
| Q1 2025 | $23.89 | +46% |
| Q4 2024 | $15.51 | -35% |
UNH's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $17.55 over the past year, against $23.89 in early 2025.
ALEC Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $162.9M | +4896% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.3M | -58% |
| Q1 2026 | $1M | -72% |
| Q4 2025 | $6.2M | -89% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.3M | -79% |
| Q2 2025 | $7.9M | -48% |
| Q1 2025 | $3.7M | -77% |
| Q4 2024 | $54.2M | +257% |
ALEC's revenue is growing: $163M last quarter, up 4896% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 76% | +1230 points |
| Q2 2026 | -735% | -301 points |
| Q1 2026 | -2382% | -1174 points |
| Q4 2025 | -634% | -621 points |
| Q3 2025 | -1154% | -838 points |
| Q2 2025 | -434% | -131 points |
| Q1 2025 | -1208% | -933 points |
| Q4 2024 | -13% | +299 points |
ALEC has the edge over UNH on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
UNH Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $112.7B | -0.4% |
| Q2 2026 | $112B | +0.4% |
| Q1 2026 | $111.7B | +2% |
| Q4 2025 | $113.2B | +12% |
| Q3 2025 | $113.2B | +12% |
| Q2 2025 | $111.6B | +13% |
| Q1 2025 | $109.6B | +9.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $100.8B | +6.8% |
UNH has the edge over ALEC on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 5.8% | +2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 7.1% | +2.5 points |
| Q1 2026 | 8.1% | -0.3 points |
| Q4 2025 | 0.3% | -7.4 points |
| Q3 2025 | 3.8% | -4.8 points |
| Q2 2025 | 4.6% | -3.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 8.3% | +0.4 points |
| Q4 2024 | 7.7% | -0.4 points |
UNH's operating margin was 5.8% last quarter, up 2 points from the same quarter a year ago.
ALEC Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$24.2M | +$8.4M |
| Q2 2026 | -$34.2M | +$14.8M |
| Q1 2026 | -$49.9M | +$10.9M |
| Q4 2025 | -$41.7M | +$13.5M |
| Q3 2025 | -$32.5M | +$18.4M |
| Q2 2025 | -$49.1M | +$14.1M |
| Q1 2025 | -$60.8M | +$1.1M |
| Q4 2024 | -$55.2M | -$8.9M |
ALEC has burned cash in almost every quarter: −$150M over the past year, against −$198M the year before.
UNH Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $4.3B | -16% |
| Q2 2026 | $10.3B | +63% |
| Q1 2026 | $8.1B | +79% |
| Q4 2025 | $160M | -89% |
| Q3 2025 | $5.1B | -61% |
| Q2 2025 | $6.3B | +6.9% |
| Q1 2025 | $4.6B | +1037% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.5B | +$7.6B |
UNH has the edge over ALEC on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
ALEC Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +1.1% | +1.3M shares |
| 1 year | +9.6% | +9.9M shares |
| 3 years | +34% | +28.5M shares |
| 5 years | +32% | +27.2M shares |
| Available history | +50% | +37.7M shares |
ALEC has 112M diluted shares, up 9.6% from a year ago.
UNH Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.4% | -4M shares |
| 1 year | -0.7% | -6M shares |
| 3 years | -3.6% | -34M shares |
| 5 years | -5.5% | -53M shares |
| Available history | -6.6% | -64M shares |
UNH has the edge over ALEC on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.4B |
| Q2 2026 | $1.6B |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q2 2025 | $2.5B |
| Q1 2025 | $3B |
| Q4 2024 | $5B |
UNH spent $5B buying back its own shares over the past year, down 52% from the year before.
ALEC Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -1.9x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2022 | -4.1x | Net Cash |
ALEC has the edge over UNH on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
UNH Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 1.7x | Healthy |
| Q2 2026 | 1.7x | Healthy |
| Q1 2026 | 2.2x | Moderate |
| Q4 2025 | 2.3x | Moderate |
| Q3 2025 | 1.7x | Healthy |
| Q2 2025 | 1.5x | Healthy |
| Q1 2025 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q4 2024 | 1.4x | Healthy |
UNH's net debt is about 1.7 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), about the same as a year ago.
ALEC Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 59.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 63.4 | Neutral |
ALEC's weekly RSI is 59 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 63 (neutral).
UNH Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 56.4 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 60.0 | Neutral |
UNH's weekly RSI is 56 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 60 (neutral).
ALEC PE vs Healthcare Sector
| Metric | ALEC | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 7x | 26x | 73% below |
ALEC has the edge over UNH on valuation relative to its sector.
UNH PE vs Healthcare Sector
| Metric | UNH | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 23x | 26x | 11% below |
| PE % | 47 | 29 | 18 pts above |
UNH is trading at 23x earnings, a 11% discount to the Healthcare sector's median of 26x.
ALEC Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $2.06 | 19% above |
| 20 week MA | $1.98 | 24% above |
| 50 week MA | $1.97 | 24% above |
| 100 week MA | $1.86 | 32% above |
| 200 week MA | $3.98 | 38% below |
ALEC has bounced recently, but its long-term trend is still down: it's above its 8-, 20-, 50- and 100-week averages, but 38% below its 200-week average.
UNH Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $394.2 | 2.8% above |
| 20 week MA | $400.5 | 1.2% above |
| 50 week MA | $361.2 | 12% above |
| 100 week MA | $376.0 | 7.8% above |
| 200 week MA | $446.6 | 9.3% below |
UNH has bounced recently, but its long-term trend is still down: it's above its 8-, 20-, 50- and 100-week averages, but 9.3% below its 200-week average.
ALEC Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $17.6 | $15.3 | -13% |
| 2021 | $15.3 | $23.7 | +55% |
| 2022 | $23.7 | $8.84 | -63% |
| 2023 | $8.84 | $7.98 | -9.7% |
| 2024 | $7.98 | $1.78 | -78% |
| 2025 | $1.78 | $1.45 | -19% |
| 2026 YTD | $1.45 | $2.45 | +69% |
ALEC has the edge over UNH on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
UNH Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $296.0 | $340.8 | +15% |
| 2021 | $340.8 | $495.4 | +45% |
| 2022 | $495.4 | $531.3 | +7.3% |
| 2023 | $531.3 | $526.5 | -0.9% |
| 2024 | $526.5 | $510.0 | -3.1% |
| 2025 | $510.0 | $331.8 | -35% |
| 2026 YTD | $331.8 | $405.1 | +22% |
UNH has finished three years in a row lower, and it's up 22% so far in 2026.