ALEC
Alector, Inc.
ALEC has the edge over NVO overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and stronger modeled upside.
NVO
Novo Nordisk A/S
NVO has lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
ALEC Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Under pressure | |
| Strong |
ALEC's revenue, profitability and balance sheet are currently strong, but its cash flow is under pressure.
NVO Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Stable | |
| Healthy |
NVO's revenue, profitability and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its cash flow is stable.
ALEC PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current | 7x | $2.45 | — |
| Cheap | 17x | $6.09 | +149% |
| Fair | 19x | $6.80 | +178% |
| Expensive | 23x | $8.15 | +233% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
ALEC has the edge over NVO in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
NVO PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current | 10x | $40.65 | — |
| Cheap | 14x | $53.56 | +32% |
| Fair | 27x | $103 | +154% |
| Expensive | 39x | $152 | +273% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
NVO's PE is 10x, but its earnings don't support one, so it isn't a reliable read right now.
ALEC Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Losses shrinking | |
| Strong growth | |
| -- | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect ALEC's losses to shrink, with revenue growing. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
NVO Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Stable | |
| Growth | |
| Weakening | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect NVO's revenue to grow, but its profitability to weaken. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
ALEC Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $0.35 | +$1.42 |
| Q2 2026 | -$1.10 | +$0.06 |
| Q1 2026 | -$1.19 | +$0.07 |
| Q4 2025 | -$1.39 | -$0.16 |
| Q3 2025 | -$1.07 | +$0.64 |
| Q2 2025 | -$1.16 | +$0.65 |
| Q1 2025 | -$1.26 | +$0.13 |
| Q4 2024 | -$1.23 | +$0.33 |
ALEC has returned to profit: it earned $0.35 per share over the past year, after losing money the year before.
NVO Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $3.89 | +4.9% |
| Q1 2026 | $4.07 | +17% |
| Q4 2025 | $3.42 | +1.8% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.47 | +10% |
| Q2 2025 | $3.71 | +24% |
| Q1 2025 | $3.49 | +18% |
| Q4 2024 | $3.36 | +21% |
| Q3 2024 | $3.15 | +27% |
NVO has the edge over ALEC on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
ALEC Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $162.9M | +4896% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.3M | -58% |
| Q1 2026 | $1M | -72% |
| Q4 2025 | $6.2M | -89% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.3M | -79% |
| Q2 2025 | $7.9M | -48% |
| Q1 2025 | $3.7M | -77% |
| Q4 2024 | $54.2M | +257% |
ALEC's revenue is growing: $163M last quarter, up 4896% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 76% | +1230 points |
| Q2 2026 | -735% | -301 points |
| Q1 2026 | -2382% | -1174 points |
| Q4 2025 | -634% | -621 points |
| Q3 2025 | -1154% | -838 points |
| Q2 2025 | -434% | -131 points |
| Q1 2025 | -1208% | -933 points |
| Q4 2024 | -13% | +299 points |
ALEC has the edge over NVO on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
NVO Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $11.7B | +2.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $14.4B | +24% |
| Q4 2025 | $11.8B | -7.6% |
| Q3 2025 | $11.1B | +5.1% |
| Q2 2025 | $11.4B | +13% |
| Q1 2025 | $11.6B | +19% |
| Q4 2024 | $12.7B | +30% |
| Q3 2024 | $10.6B | +21% |
NVO has the edge over ALEC on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 34% | -9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 62% | +12 points |
| Q4 2025 | 40% | -2.8 points |
| Q3 2025 | 32% | -16 points |
| Q2 2025 | 44% | +5.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 50% | +1 points |
| Q4 2024 | 43% | +2.2 points |
| Q3 2024 | 47% | +1.6 points |
NVO's operating margin was 34% last quarter, down 9 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the bottom of its range since 2019.
ALEC Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$24.2M | +$8.4M |
| Q2 2026 | -$34.2M | +$14.8M |
| Q1 2026 | -$49.9M | +$10.9M |
| Q4 2025 | -$41.7M | +$13.5M |
| Q3 2025 | -$32.5M | +$18.4M |
| Q2 2025 | -$49.1M | +$14.1M |
| Q1 2025 | -$60.8M | +$1.1M |
| Q4 2024 | -$55.2M | -$8.9M |
ALEC has burned cash in almost every quarter: −$150M over the past year, against −$198M the year before.
NVO Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $6.3B | +73% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.8B | +20% |
| Q4 2025 | -$5.4B | -$4.7B |
| Q3 2025 | $4.6B | -2.1% |
| Q2 2025 | $3.6B | -34% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.5B | +89% |
| Q4 2024 | -$632.6M | +$390.5M |
| Q3 2024 | $4.7B | +3.3% |
NVO has the edge over ALEC on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
ALEC Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +1.1% | +1.3M shares |
| 1 year | +9.6% | +9.9M shares |
| 3 years | +34% | +28.5M shares |
| 5 years | +32% | +27.2M shares |
| Available history | +50% | +37.7M shares |
ALEC has 112M diluted shares, up 9.6% from a year ago.
NVO Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.3% | -12.9M shares |
| 1 year | -0.2% | -11M shares |
| 3 years | -1.5% | -66.8M shares |
| 5 years | -3.8% | -177M shares |
| Available history | -6.5% | -311M shares |
NVO has the edge over ALEC on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $520M |
| Q1 2026 | $356.7M |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | $206.3M |
| Q4 2024 | $1.1B |
| Q3 2024 | $357.4M |
NVO spent $877M buying back its own shares over the past year, down 48% from the year before.
ALEC Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -1.9x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2022 | -4.1x | Net Cash |
ALEC has the edge over NVO on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
NVO Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | 0.7x | Very low |
| Q4 2025 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | 0.4x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q3 2024 | -0.0x | Very low |
NVO's net debt is less than a year of its operating earnings (EBITDA).
ALEC Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 59.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 63.4 | Neutral |
ALEC's weekly RSI is 59 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 63 (neutral).
NVO Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 43.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 27.0 | Neutral |
NVO's weekly RSI is 43 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 27 (neutral).
ALEC PE vs Healthcare Sector
| Metric | ALEC | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 7x | 26x | 73% below |
ALEC has the edge over NVO on valuation relative to its sector.
NVO PE vs Healthcare Sector
| Metric | NVO | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 10x | 26x | 60% below |
| PE % | 6 | 29 | 23 pts below |
NVO is trading at 10x earnings, a 60% discount to the Healthcare sector's median of 26x, though its earnings don't support one.
ALEC Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $2.06 | 19% above |
| 20 week MA | $1.98 | 24% above |
| 50 week MA | $1.97 | 24% above |
| 100 week MA | $1.86 | 32% above |
| 200 week MA | $3.98 | 38% below |
ALEC has the edge over NVO on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
NVO Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $39.2 | 3.7% above |
| 20 week MA | $43.9 | 7.4% below |
| 50 week MA | $45.3 | 10% below |
| 100 week MA | $56.3 | 28% below |
| 200 week MA | $80.7 | 50% below |
NVO has bounced recently, but its long-term trend is still down: it's above its 8-week average, but 50% below its 200-week average.
ALEC Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $17.6 | $15.3 | -13% |
| 2021 | $15.3 | $23.7 | +55% |
| 2022 | $23.7 | $8.84 | -63% |
| 2023 | $8.84 | $7.98 | -9.7% |
| 2024 | $7.98 | $1.78 | -78% |
| 2025 | $1.78 | $1.45 | -19% |
| 2026 YTD | $1.45 | $2.45 | +69% |
ALEC has the edge over NVO on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
NVO Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $29.1 | $34.7 | +19% |
| 2021 | $34.7 | $54.2 | +56% |
| 2022 | $54.2 | $67.0 | +24% |
| 2023 | $67.0 | $103.5 | +54% |
| 2024 | $103.5 | $87.4 | -16% |
| 2025 | $87.4 | $52.4 | -40% |
| 2026 YTD | $52.4 | $40.7 | -22% |
NVO has finished higher in four of the last six years, two of them by more than 50%. It's down 22% so far in 2026.