ALEC
Alector, Inc.
ALEC's outlook is improving, though it still trails on the overall score.
LLY
Eli Lilly and Company
LLY has the edge over ALEC overall, supported by lower modeled downside and stronger fundamentals.
ALEC Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Under pressure | |
| Strong |
ALEC's revenue, profitability and balance sheet are currently strong, but its cash flow is under pressure.
LLY Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Healthy |
LLY's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
ALEC PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current | 7x | $2.45 | — |
| Cheap | 17x | $6.09 | +149% |
| Fair | 19x | $6.80 | +178% |
| Expensive | 23x | $8.15 | +233% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
ALEC has the edge over LLY in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
LLY PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 27x | $845 | -41% |
| Forward | 30x | $1,427 | — |
| Current | 46x | $1,427 | — |
| Fair | 48x | $1,466 | +2.7% |
| Expensive | 85x | $2,612 | +83% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
LLY's PE is in its fair range at 46x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 30x next year's earnings, in its cheap range.
ALEC Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Losses shrinking | |
| Strong growth | |
| -- | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect ALEC's losses to shrink, with revenue growing. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
LLY Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect strong earnings and revenue growth for LLY, with profitability improving.
ALEC Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $0.35 | +$1.42 |
| Q2 2026 | -$1.10 | +$0.06 |
| Q1 2026 | -$1.19 | +$0.07 |
| Q4 2025 | -$1.39 | -$0.16 |
| Q3 2025 | -$1.07 | +$0.64 |
| Q2 2025 | -$1.16 | +$0.65 |
| Q1 2025 | -$1.26 | +$0.13 |
| Q4 2024 | -$1.23 | +$0.33 |
ALEC has returned to profit: it earned $0.35 per share over the past year, after losing money the year before.
LLY Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $46.82 | +52% |
| Q3 2026 | $30.81 | +51% |
| Q2 2026 | $29.80 | +95% |
| Q1 2026 | $28.15 | +129% |
| Q4 2025 | $22.95 | +96% |
| Q3 2025 | $20.44 | +121% |
| Q2 2025 | $15.30 | +88% |
| Q1 2025 | $12.29 | +81% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.71 | +102% |
LLY has the edge over ALEC on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
ALEC Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $162.9M | +4896% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.3M | -58% |
| Q1 2026 | $1M | -72% |
| Q4 2025 | $6.2M | -89% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.3M | -79% |
| Q2 2025 | $7.9M | -48% |
| Q1 2025 | $3.7M | -77% |
| Q4 2024 | $54.2M | +257% |
ALEC's revenue is growing: $163M last quarter, up 4896% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 76% | +1230 points |
| Q2 2026 | -735% | -301 points |
| Q1 2026 | -2382% | -1174 points |
| Q4 2025 | -634% | -621 points |
| Q3 2025 | -1154% | -838 points |
| Q2 2025 | -434% | -131 points |
| Q1 2025 | -1208% | -933 points |
| Q4 2024 | -13% | +299 points |
ALEC has the edge over LLY on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
LLY Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $24.4B | +39% |
| Q2 2026 | $23B | +48% |
| Q1 2026 | $19.8B | +56% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.3B | +43% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.6B | +54% |
| Q2 2025 | $15.6B | +38% |
| Q1 2025 | $12.7B | +45% |
| Q4 2024 | $13.5B | +45% |
LLY has the edge over ALEC on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 34% | -6.6 points |
| Q2 2026 | 40% | -3.3 points |
| Q1 2026 | 45% | +18 points |
| Q4 2025 | 43% | +5.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 41% | +27 points |
| Q2 2025 | 44% | +12 points |
| Q1 2025 | 27% | -1.8 points |
| Q4 2024 | 37% | +10 points |
LLY's operating margin was 34% last quarter, down 6.6 points from the same quarter a year ago.
ALEC Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$24.2M | +$8.4M |
| Q2 2026 | -$34.2M | +$14.8M |
| Q1 2026 | -$49.9M | +$10.9M |
| Q4 2025 | -$41.7M | +$13.5M |
| Q3 2025 | -$32.5M | +$18.4M |
| Q2 2025 | -$49.1M | +$14.1M |
| Q1 2025 | -$60.8M | +$1.1M |
| Q4 2024 | -$55.2M | -$8.9M |
ALEC has burned cash in almost every quarter: −$150M over the past year, against −$198M the year before.
LLY Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $8.2B | +22% |
| Q2 2026 | $7.8B | +458% |
| Q1 2026 | $3B | +1826% |
| Q4 2025 | $677.9M | -31% |
| Q3 2025 | $6.7B | +186% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.4B | +476% |
| Q1 2025 | $156.1M | -13% |
| Q4 2024 | $977.8M | +$2.4B |
LLY has the edge over ALEC on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
ALEC Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +1.1% | +1.3M shares |
| 1 year | +9.6% | +9.9M shares |
| 3 years | +34% | +28.5M shares |
| 5 years | +32% | +27.2M shares |
| Available history | +50% | +37.7M shares |
ALEC has 112M diluted shares, up 9.6% from a year ago.
LLY Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | 0% | -300K shares |
| 1 year | -0.6% | -5.4M shares |
| 3 years | -0.7% | -6.4M shares |
| 5 years | -1.9% | -17.4M shares |
| Available history | -4.5% | -42.3M shares |
LLY has the edge over ALEC on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $377M |
| Q2 2026 | $1.6B |
| Q1 2026 | $2.4B |
| Q4 2025 | $1.5B |
| Q3 2025 | $708.1M |
| Q2 2025 | $692.2M |
| Q1 2025 | $1.2B |
| Q4 2024 | $2.1B |
LLY spent $5.8B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 26% from the year before.
ALEC Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -1.9x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2022 | -4.1x | Net Cash |
ALEC has the edge over LLY on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
LLY Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 1.2x | Healthy |
| Q2 2026 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q1 2026 | 1.2x | Healthy |
| Q4 2025 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q2 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q1 2025 | 2.3x | Moderate |
| Q4 2024 | 2.1x | Moderate |
LLY's net debt is about 1.2 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), about the same as a year ago.
ALEC Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 59.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 63.4 | Neutral |
ALEC's weekly RSI is 59 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 63 (neutral).
LLY Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 68.3 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 84.1 | Overbought |
LLY's weekly RSI is 68 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 84 (overbought).
ALEC PE vs Healthcare Sector
| Metric | ALEC | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 7x | 26x | 73% below |
ALEC has the edge over LLY on valuation relative to its sector.
LLY PE vs Healthcare Sector
| Metric | LLY | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 46x | 26x | 79% above |
| PE % | 48 | 29 | 19 pts above |
LLY is trading at 46x earnings, a 79% premium to the Healthcare sector's median of 26x.
ALEC Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $2.06 | 19% above |
| 20 week MA | $1.98 | 24% above |
| 50 week MA | $1.97 | 24% above |
| 100 week MA | $1.86 | 32% above |
| 200 week MA | $3.98 | 38% below |
ALEC has bounced recently, but its long-term trend is still down: it's above its 8-, 20-, 50- and 100-week averages, but 38% below its 200-week average.
LLY Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $1,279.4 | 12% above |
| 20 week MA | $1,218.8 | 17% above |
| 50 week MA | $1,102.2 | 29% above |
| 100 week MA | $954.1 | 50% above |
| 200 week MA | $797.5 | 79% above |
LLY has the edge over ALEC on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
ALEC Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $17.6 | $15.3 | -13% |
| 2021 | $15.3 | $23.7 | +55% |
| 2022 | $23.7 | $8.84 | -63% |
| 2023 | $8.84 | $7.98 | -9.7% |
| 2024 | $7.98 | $1.78 | -78% |
| 2025 | $1.78 | $1.45 | -19% |
| 2026 YTD | $1.45 | $2.45 | +69% |
ALEC has the edge over LLY on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
LLY Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $131.5 | $166.7 | +27% |
| 2021 | $166.7 | $273.1 | +64% |
| 2022 | $273.1 | $367.9 | +35% |
| 2023 | $367.9 | $582.9 | +58% |
| 2024 | $582.9 | $783.2 | +34% |
| 2025 | $783.2 | $1,077.8 | +38% |
| 2026 YTD | $1,077.8 | $1,427.3 | +32% |
LLY has finished every year since 2020 higher, and it's up 32% so far in 2026.