AJG
Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.
AJG offers stronger valuation, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
JPM
JPMorgan Chase & Co.
JPM has a slight edge over AJG overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and stronger modeled upside.
AJG Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
AJG's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like AJG.
JPM Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
JPM's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like JPM.
AJG PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 19x | $277 | — |
| Cheap | 30x | $195 | -30% |
| Fair | 38x | $250 | -9.7% |
| Current | 42x | $277 | — |
| Expensive | 51x | $332 | +20% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
AJG's PE is in its expensive range at 42x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 19x next year's earnings, in its cheap range.
JPM PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 9.7x | $231 | -33% |
| Fair | 12x | $287 | -16% |
| Current | 14x | $343 | — |
| Forward | 14x | $343 | — |
| Expensive | 15x | $361 | +5.2% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
JPM has the edge over AJG in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
AJG Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Moderate | |
| High |
AJG has the edge over JPM on the outlook, with more favorable valuation expectations.
JPM Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for JPM, with profitability improving.
AJG Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $14.41 | +120% |
| Q3 2026 | $6.54 | +4.5% |
| Q2 2026 | $6.03 | -8.8% |
| Q1 2026 | $6.18 | -4.6% |
| Q4 2025 | $5.74 | -12% |
| Q3 2025 | $6.26 | +20% |
| Q2 2025 | $6.61 | +29% |
| Q1 2025 | $6.48 | +32% |
| Q4 2024 | $6.50 | +47% |
AJG earned $6.54 per share over the past year, up 4.5% from the year before.
JPM Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $24.99 | +4.8% |
| Q3 2026 | $23.85 | +18% |
| Q2 2026 | $23.35 | +20% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.89 | +2.5% |
| Q4 2025 | $20.02 | +1.4% |
| Q3 2025 | $20.20 | +12% |
| Q2 2025 | $19.50 | +8.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $20.38 | +23% |
| Q4 2024 | $19.75 | +22% |
JPM has the edge over AJG on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
AJG Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $4B | +18% |
| Q2 2026 | $4B | +24% |
| Q1 2026 | $4.8B | +28% |
| Q4 2025 | $3.6B | +34% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.4B | +20% |
| Q2 2025 | $3.2B | +16% |
| Q1 2025 | $3.7B | +14% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.7B | +12% |
AJG has the edge over JPM on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 13% | +2.6 points |
| Q2 2026 | 10% | -4.3 points |
| Q1 2026 | 22% | -1.5 points |
| Q4 2025 | 5% | -7.3 points |
| Q3 2025 | 10% | -4.1 points |
| Q2 2025 | 15% | +1.5 points |
| Q1 2025 | 23% | -0.3 points |
| Q4 2024 | 12% | +16 points |
AJG's operating margin was 13% last quarter, up 2.6 points from the same quarter a year ago.
JPM Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $50.2B | +8.1% |
| Q2 2026 | $57.3B | +28% |
| Q1 2026 | $49.8B | +10% |
| Q4 2025 | $45.8B | +7.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $46.4B | +8.8% |
| Q2 2025 | $44.9B | -11% |
| Q1 2025 | $45.3B | +8.1% |
| Q4 2024 | $42.8B | +11% |
JPM's revenue has grown year over year for five quarters in a row: $50.2B last quarter, up 8.1% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 40% | -0.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 48% | +7.3 points |
| Q1 2026 | 41% | +0.5 points |
| Q4 2025 | 37% | -3.2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 40% | +0.6 points |
| Q2 2025 | 41% | -6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 41% | -0.6 points |
| Q4 2024 | 41% | +11 points |
JPM has the edge over AJG on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
AJG Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.3B | +87% |
| Q2 2026 | -$41M | +$424.5M |
| Q1 2026 | $921M | +9.2% |
| Q4 2025 | $713.4M | +2.5% |
| Q3 2025 | $693.5M | -23% |
| Q2 2025 | -$465.5M | -631% |
| Q1 2025 | $843.6M | +11% |
| Q4 2024 | $695.7M | +7.4% |
AJG has the edge over JPM on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
JPM Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $33.2B | +$78.4B |
| Q2 2026 | -$25.3B | -186% |
| Q1 2026 | -$211.8B | +$40.1B |
| Q4 2025 | $119.7B | -19% |
| Q3 2025 | -$45.2B | +$28.9B |
| Q2 2025 | $29.5B | -23% |
| Q1 2025 | -$251.8B | -$97.7B |
| Q4 2024 | $147.8B | +145% |
JPM's free cash flow was −$84.2B over the past year, against −$120B the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like JPM.
AJG Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | 0% | -- |
| 1 year | 0% | +100K shares |
| 3 years | +19% | +41M shares |
| 5 years | +24% | +49.7M shares |
| Available history | +38% | +70.7M shares |
AJG has 257M diluted shares, about the same as a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $100M |
| Q2 2026 | $170M |
| Q1 2026 | $310M |
JPM Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.4% | -11.2M shares |
| 1 year | -3.1% | -84.6M shares |
| 3 years | -8.5% | -249M shares |
| 5 years | -11% | -322M shares |
| Available history | -17% | -547M shares |
JPM has the edge over AJG on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.1B |
| Q2 2026 | $6.8B |
| Q1 2026 | $8.3B |
| Q4 2025 | $8.3B |
| Q3 2025 | $8.3B |
| Q2 2025 | $7.5B |
| Q1 2025 | $7.5B |
| Q4 2024 | $4.3B |
JPM spent $24.5B buying back its own shares over the past year, down 11% from the year before.
AJG Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 3.2x | Elevated |
| Q2 2026 | 3.6x | Elevated |
| Q1 2026 | 3.5x | Elevated |
| Q4 2025 | 3.8x | Elevated |
| Q3 2025 | 3.8x | Elevated |
| Q2 2025 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -1.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -0.8x | Net Cash |
AJG's net debt is about 3.2 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 3.8 years a year ago. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like AJG.
JPM Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q2 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q4 2025 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | 0.4x | Very low |
JPM has the edge over AJG on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
AJG Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 63.3 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 85.8 | Overbought |
AJG's weekly RSI is 63 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 86 (overbought).
JPM Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 54.8 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 31.5 | Neutral |
JPM's weekly RSI is 55 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 31 (neutral).
AJG PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | AJG | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 42x | 13x | 226% above |
| PE % | 66 | 63 | 3 pts above |
AJG is trading at 42x earnings, a 226% premium to the Financial Services sector's median of 13x.
JPM PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | JPM | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 14x | 13x | 10% above |
| PE % | 76 | 63 | 13 pts above |
JPM has the edge over AJG on valuation relative to its sector.
AJG Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $256.0 | 8.3% above |
| 20 week MA | $253.9 | 9.2% above |
| 50 week MA | $237.6 | 17% above |
| 100 week MA | $271.8 | 2% above |
| 200 week MA | $256.1 | 8.3% above |
AJG has the edge over JPM on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
JPM Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $336.8 | 1.8% above |
| 20 week MA | $345.3 | 0.7% below |
| 50 week MA | $323.2 | 6.1% above |
| 100 week MA | $298.9 | 15% above |
| 200 week MA | $236.6 | 45% above |
JPM's trend is mixed: it's above four of its five weekly moving averages, and 45% above its 200-week average.
AJG Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $94.8 | $123.4 | +30% |
| 2021 | $123.4 | $166.5 | +35% |
| 2022 | $166.5 | $188.4 | +13% |
| 2023 | $188.4 | $224.9 | +19% |
| 2024 | $224.9 | $286.5 | +27% |
| 2025 | $286.5 | $261.5 | -8.7% |
| 2026 YTD | $261.5 | $277.3 | +6% |
AJG has the edge over JPM on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
JPM Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $139.1 | $124.5 | -11% |
| 2021 | $124.5 | $157.3 | +26% |
| 2022 | $157.3 | $131.3 | -17% |
| 2023 | $131.3 | $170.1 | +30% |
| 2024 | $170.1 | $241.2 | +42% |
| 2025 | $241.2 | $327.9 | +36% |
| 2026 YTD | $327.9 | $342.8 | +4.5% |
JPM has finished higher in four of the last six years. It's up 4.5% so far in 2026.