AJG

Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.

56
Fundamentals57/ 100
Valuation43/ 100
Upside potential61/ 100
Risk potential13/ 100

AJG's fundamentals are mixed: revenue grew 26%, but its operating margin fell 2 points to 13%. At 42x earnings, it's trading above its usual 38x. Analysts expect earnings growth.

AJG Fundamentals

MetricStatus
Healthy
Healthy
N/A
N/A

AJG's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like AJG.

AJG PE Valuation

CHEAPFAIREXPENSIVE16x32x48x64x
CHEAPFAIREXPENSIVE16x32x48x64x
LevelPEPriceVs current
Forward19x$277—
Cheap30x$195-30%
Fair38x$250-9.7%
Current42x$277—
Expensive51x$332+20%

Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.

AJG's PE is in its expensive range at 42x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 19x next year's earnings, in its cheap range.

AJG Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Strongly improving
Growth
Growth
Improving
Moderate
High

Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for AJG, with profitability improving.

AJG Risk to reward

ScenarioChangePrice
Upside+20%$333.82
Downside-13%$240.63

Calculated from the latest close: $277.28 on Nov 12.

AJG's one-year upside scenario is somewhat larger than its downside: +20% against −13%.

AJG Earnings Per Share

Q4 2023: $4.42Q1 2024: $4.92Q2 2024: $5.12Q3 2024: $5.23Q4 2024: $6.50Q1 2025: $6.48Q2 2025: $6.61Q3 2025: $6.26Q4 2025: $5.74Q1 2026: $6.18Q2 2026: $6.03Q3 2026: $6.54Forward: $14.41
Q4 2023: $4.42Q1 2024: $4.92Q2 2024: $5.12Q3 2024: $5.23Q4 2024: $6.50Q1 2025: $6.48Q2 2025: $6.61Q3 2025: $6.26Q4 2025: $5.74Q1 2026: $6.18Q2 2026: $6.03Q3 2026: $6.54Forward: $14.41
QuarterTTM EPSYoY
Forward$14.41+120%
Q3 2026$6.54+4.5%
Q2 2026$6.03-8.8%
Q1 2026$6.18-4.6%
Q4 2025$5.74-12%
Q3 2025$6.26+20%
Q2 2025$6.61+29%
Q1 2025$6.48+32%
Q4 2024$6.50+47%

AJG earned $6.54 per share over the past year, up 4.5% from the year before.

AJG Quarterly Revenue

Q4 2023: $2.4BQ1 2024: $3.3BQ2 2024: $2.8BQ3 2024: $2.8BQ4 2024: $2.7BQ1 2025: $3.7BQ2 2025: $3.2BQ3 2025: $3.4BQ4 2025: $3.6BQ1 2026: $4.8BQ2 2026: $4BQ3 2026: $4B
Q4 2023: $2.4BQ1 2024: $3.3BQ2 2024: $2.8BQ3 2024: $2.8BQ4 2024: $2.7BQ1 2025: $3.7BQ2 2025: $3.2BQ3 2025: $3.4BQ4 2025: $3.6BQ1 2026: $4.8BQ2 2026: $4BQ3 2026: $4B
QuarterRevenueYoY
Q3 2026$4B+18%
Q2 2026$4B+24%
Q1 2026$4.8B+28%
Q4 2025$3.6B+34%
Q3 2025$3.4B+20%
Q2 2025$3.2B+16%
Q1 2025$3.7B+14%
Q4 2024$2.7B+12%

AJG's revenue has grown year over year for 16 quarters in a row: $4B last quarter, up 18% from the same quarter a year ago.

AJG Free Cash Flow

Q4 2023: $648MQ1 2024: $760MQ2 2024: $88MQ3 2024: $898MQ4 2024: $696MQ1 2025: $844MQ2 2025: −$466MQ3 2025: $694MQ4 2025: $713MQ1 2026: $921MQ2 2026: −$41MQ3 2026: $1.3B
Q4 2023: $648MQ1 2024: $760MQ2 2024: $88MQ3 2024: $898MQ4 2024: $696MQ1 2025: $844MQ2 2025: −$466MQ3 2025: $694MQ4 2025: $713MQ1 2026: $921MQ2 2026: −$41MQ3 2026: $1.3B
QuarterFree cash flowYoY
Q3 2026$1.3B+87%
Q2 2026-$41M+$424.5M
Q1 2026$921M+9.2%
Q4 2025$713.4M+2.5%
Q3 2025$693.5M-23%
Q2 2025-$465.5M-631%
Q1 2025$843.6M+11%
Q4 2024$695.7M+7.4%

AJG's free cash flow was $2.9B over the past year, up 63% from the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like AJG.

AJG Total Shares

Q4 2023: 215MQ1 2024: 218MQ2 2024: 219MQ3 2024: 219MQ4 2024: 221MQ1 2025: 255MQ2 2025: 256MQ3 2025: 257MQ4 2025: 256MQ1 2026: 257MQ2 2026: 257MQ3 2026: 257M
Q4 2023: 215MQ1 2024: 218MQ2 2024: 219MQ3 2024: 219MQ4 2024: 221MQ1 2025: 255MQ2 2025: 256MQ3 2025: 257MQ4 2025: 256MQ1 2026: 257MQ2 2026: 257MQ3 2026: 257M
PeriodChange %Net change
Quarterly0%--
1 year0%+100K shares
3 years+19%+41M shares
5 years+24%+49.7M shares
Available history+38%+70.7M shares

AJG has 257M diluted shares, about the same as a year ago.

AJG Net Leverage

Q4 2023: 3.6xQ1 2024: 3.0xQ2 2024: 3.0xQ3 2024: 2.6xQ4 2024: -0.8xQ1 2025: -1.3xQ2 2025: -0.5xQ3 2025: 3.8xQ4 2025: 3.8xQ1 2026: 3.5xQ2 2026: 3.6xQ3 2026: 3.2x
Q4 2023: 3.6xQ1 2024: 3.0xQ2 2024: 3.0xQ3 2024: 2.6xQ4 2024: -0.8xQ1 2025: -1.3xQ2 2025: -0.5xQ3 2025: 3.8xQ4 2025: 3.8xQ1 2026: 3.5xQ2 2026: 3.6xQ3 2026: 3.2x
QuarterNet LeverageStatus
Q3 20263.2xElevated
Q2 20263.6xElevated
Q1 20263.5xElevated
Q4 20253.8xElevated
Q3 20253.8xElevated
Q2 2025-0.5xNet Cash
Q1 2025-1.3xNet Cash
Q4 2024-0.8xNet Cash

AJG's net debt is about 3.2 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 3.8 years a year ago. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like AJG.

AJG Weekly Momentum

MetricValueStatus
RSI63.3Neutral
Stochastic85.8Overbought

AJG's weekly RSI is 63 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 86 (overbought).

AJG PE vs Financial Services Sector

MetricAJGSector medianRelative
PE42x13x226% above
PE %66633 pts above

AJG is trading at 42x earnings, a 226% premium to the Financial Services sector's median of 13x.

AJG Weekly Moving Averages

Moving averageMA priceRelative
8 week MA$256.08.3% above
20 week MA$253.99.2% above
50 week MA$237.617% above
100 week MA$271.82% above
200 week MA$256.18.3% above

AJG is in an uptrend: it's above all five of its weekly moving averages, and 8.3% above its 200-week average.

AJG Yearly ROI

YearStart priceEnd priceROI
2020$94.8$123.4+30%
2021$123.4$166.5+35%
2022$166.5$188.4+13%
2023$188.4$224.9+19%
2024$224.9$286.5+27%
2025$286.5$261.5-8.7%
2026 YTD$261.5$277.3+6%

AJG has finished higher in five of the last six years. It's up 6% so far in 2026.

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