AJG
Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.
AJG has slightly lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
GS
The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.
GS has the edge over AJG overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and stronger valuation.
AJG Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
AJG's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like AJG.
GS Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
GS's revenue and profitability are currently strong. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like GS.
AJG PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 19x | $277 | — |
| Cheap | 30x | $195 | -30% |
| Fair | 38x | $250 | -9.7% |
| Current | 42x | $277 | — |
| Expensive | 51x | $332 | +20% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
AJG has the edge over GS in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
GS PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 7.6x | $528 | -42% |
| Current | 13x | $914 | — |
| Forward | 13x | $914 | — |
| Fair | 14x | $940 | +2.9% |
| Expensive | 17x | $1,214 | +33% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
GS's PE is 13x, but its earnings don't support one, so it isn't a reliable read right now.
AJG Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Moderate | |
| High |
AJG has the edge over GS on the outlook, with more favorable valuation expectations.
GS Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for GS, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
AJG Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $14.41 | +120% |
| Q3 2026 | $6.54 | +4.5% |
| Q2 2026 | $6.03 | -8.8% |
| Q1 2026 | $6.18 | -4.6% |
| Q4 2025 | $5.74 | -12% |
| Q3 2025 | $6.26 | +20% |
| Q2 2025 | $6.61 | +29% |
| Q1 2025 | $6.48 | +32% |
| Q4 2024 | $6.50 | +47% |
AJG earned $6.54 per share over the past year, up 4.5% from the year before.
GS Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $72.35 | +4% |
| Q3 2026 | $69.58 | +41% |
| Q2 2026 | $64.82 | +43% |
| Q1 2026 | $54.75 | +27% |
| Q4 2025 | $51.32 | +27% |
| Q3 2025 | $49.22 | +44% |
| Q2 2025 | $45.37 | +45% |
| Q1 2025 | $43.08 | +68% |
| Q4 2024 | $40.54 | +77% |
GS has the edge over AJG on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
AJG Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $4B | +18% |
| Q2 2026 | $4B | +24% |
| Q1 2026 | $4.8B | +28% |
| Q4 2025 | $3.6B | +34% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.4B | +20% |
| Q2 2025 | $3.2B | +16% |
| Q1 2025 | $3.7B | +14% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.7B | +12% |
AJG has the edge over GS on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 13% | +2.6 points |
| Q2 2026 | 10% | -4.3 points |
| Q1 2026 | 22% | -1.5 points |
| Q4 2025 | 5% | -7.3 points |
| Q3 2025 | 10% | -4.1 points |
| Q2 2025 | 15% | +1.5 points |
| Q1 2025 | 23% | -0.3 points |
| Q4 2024 | 12% | +16 points |
AJG's operating margin was 13% last quarter, up 2.6 points from the same quarter a year ago.
GS Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $18.7B | +23% |
| Q2 2026 | $20.3B | +39% |
| Q1 2026 | $17.2B | +14% |
| Q4 2025 | $13.5B | -3% |
| Q3 2025 | $15.2B | +20% |
| Q2 2025 | $14.6B | +15% |
| Q1 2025 | $15.1B | +6% |
| Q4 2024 | $13.9B | +23% |
GS's revenue is growing: $18.7B last quarter, up 23% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 37% | +2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 42% | +8.1 points |
| Q1 2026 | 38% | +0.2 points |
| Q4 2025 | 44% | +5.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 36% | +4.1 points |
| Q2 2025 | 34% | +3.2 points |
| Q1 2025 | 37% | +0.6 points |
| Q4 2024 | 38% | +18 points |
GS has the edge over AJG on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
AJG Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.3B | +87% |
| Q2 2026 | -$41M | +$424.5M |
| Q1 2026 | $921M | +9.2% |
| Q4 2025 | $713.4M | +2.5% |
| Q3 2025 | $693.5M | -23% |
| Q2 2025 | -$465.5M | -631% |
| Q1 2025 | $843.6M | +11% |
| Q4 2024 | $695.7M | +7.4% |
AJG has the edge over GS on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
GS Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.7B | +72% |
| Q2 2026 | $5.6B | +7.8% |
| Q1 2026 | -$32.4B | +$5.3B |
| Q4 2025 | -$16.8B | -136% |
| Q3 2025 | $2.1B | +$40.6B |
| Q2 2025 | $5.2B | -6.8% |
| Q1 2025 | -$37.7B | -$9.2B |
| Q4 2024 | $46.2B | +$75.1B |
GS's free cash flow was −$40B over the past year, against $15.8B the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like GS.
AJG Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | 0% | -- |
| 1 year | 0% | +100K shares |
| 3 years | +19% | +41M shares |
| 5 years | +24% | +49.7M shares |
| Available history | +38% | +70.7M shares |
AJG has 257M diluted shares, about the same as a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $100M |
| Q2 2026 | $170M |
| Q1 2026 | $310M |
GS Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -1.2% | -3.8M shares |
| 1 year | -4.4% | -13.9M shares |
| 3 years | -12% | -42.8M shares |
| 5 years | -15% | -52.8M shares |
| Available history | -20% | -74.4M shares |
GS has the edge over AJG on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3B |
| Q2 2026 | $4B |
| Q1 2026 | $5B |
| Q4 2025 | $3B |
| Q3 2025 | $2B |
| Q2 2025 | $3B |
| Q1 2025 | $4.4B |
| Q4 2024 | $2B |
GS spent $15B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 32% from the year before.
AJG Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 3.2x | Elevated |
| Q2 2026 | 3.6x | Elevated |
| Q1 2026 | 3.5x | Elevated |
| Q4 2025 | 3.8x | Elevated |
| Q3 2025 | 3.8x | Elevated |
| Q2 2025 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -1.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -0.8x | Net Cash |
AJG's net debt is about 3.2 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 3.8 years a year ago. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like AJG.
GS Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -5.4x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -6.1x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -6.7x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -6.4x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -3.5x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -3.1x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -3.9x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -4.7x | Net Cash |
GS has the edge over AJG on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
AJG Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 63.3 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 85.8 | Overbought |
AJG's weekly RSI is 63 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 86 (overbought).
GS Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 44.5 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 16.3 | Oversold |
GS's weekly RSI is 45 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 16 (oversold).
AJG PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | AJG | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 42x | 13x | 226% above |
| PE % | 66 | 63 | 3 pts above |
AJG is trading at 42x earnings, a 226% premium to the Financial Services sector's median of 13x.
GS PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | GS | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 13x | 13x | 0.8% above |
| PE % | 46 | 63 | 17 pts below |
GS has the edge over AJG on valuation relative to its sector.
AJG Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $256.0 | 8.3% above |
| 20 week MA | $253.9 | 9.2% above |
| 50 week MA | $237.6 | 17% above |
| 100 week MA | $271.8 | 2% above |
| 200 week MA | $256.1 | 8.3% above |
AJG has the edge over GS on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
GS Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $895.5 | 2% above |
| 20 week MA | $977.4 | 6.5% below |
| 50 week MA | $945.4 | 3.4% below |
| 100 week MA | $804.5 | 14% above |
| 200 week MA | $602.7 | 52% above |
GS's trend is mixed: it's above three of its five weekly moving averages, and 52% above its 200-week average.
AJG Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $94.8 | $123.4 | +30% |
| 2021 | $123.4 | $166.5 | +35% |
| 2022 | $166.5 | $188.4 | +13% |
| 2023 | $188.4 | $224.9 | +19% |
| 2024 | $224.9 | $286.5 | +27% |
| 2025 | $286.5 | $261.5 | -8.7% |
| 2026 YTD | $261.5 | $277.3 | +6% |
AJG has the edge over GS on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
GS Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $230.7 | $256.2 | +11% |
| 2021 | $256.2 | $385.0 | +50% |
| 2022 | $385.0 | $345.5 | -10% |
| 2023 | $345.5 | $385.8 | +12% |
| 2024 | $385.8 | $576.2 | +49% |
| 2025 | $576.2 | $907.0 | +57% |
| 2026 YTD | $907.0 | $913.6 | +0.7% |
GS has finished higher in five of the last six years, two of them by more than 50%. It's up 0.7% so far in 2026.