AJG

Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.

56
Fundamentals57/ 100
Valuation43/ 100
Upside potential61/ 100
Risk potential13/ 100

AJG's fundamentals are mixed: revenue grew 26%, but its operating margin fell 2 points to 13%. At 42x earnings, it's trading above its usual 38x. Analysts expect earnings growth.

COIN

Coinbase Global, Inc.

There isn't enough reported data to score COIN yet.

AJG Fundamentals

MetricStatus
Healthy
Healthy
N/A
N/A

AJG's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like AJG.

COIN Fundamentals

MetricStatus
Weak
Under pressure
N/A
N/A

COIN's revenue and profitability are currently under pressure. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like COIN.

AJG PE Valuation

CHEAPFAIREXPENSIVE16x32x48x64x
CHEAPFAIREXPENSIVE16x32x48x64x
LevelPEPriceVs current
Forward19x$277โ€”
Cheap30x$195-30%
Fair38x$250-9.7%
Current42x$277โ€”
Expensive51x$332+20%

Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.

AJG's PE is in its expensive range at 42x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 19x next year's earnings, in its cheap range.

COIN PE Valuation

COIN has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.

AJG Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Strongly improving
Growth
Growth
Improving
Moderate
High

AJG has the edge over COIN on the outlook, with more favorable revenue expectations.

COIN Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
--
Strong growth
Stable
Strongly improving
Moderate
Low

Analysts expect COIN's earnings to grow and its profitability to improve, with its revenue holding steady. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.

AJG Risk to reward

ScenarioChangePrice
Upside+20%$333.82
Downside-13%$240.63

Calculated from the latest close: $277.28 on Nov 12.

There is not enough scenario data to compare AJG and COIN's risk to reward.

COIN Risk to reward

ScenarioChangePrice
UpsideUnknownโ€”
DownsideUnknownโ€”

Calculated from the latest close: $130.67 on Nov 12.

There is not enough scenario data to compare AJG and COIN's risk to reward.

AJG Earnings Per Share

Q4 2023: $4.42Q1 2024: $4.92Q2 2024: $5.12Q3 2024: $5.23Q4 2024: $6.50Q1 2025: $6.48Q2 2025: $6.61Q3 2025: $6.26Q4 2025: $5.74Q1 2026: $6.18Q2 2026: $6.03Q3 2026: $6.54Forward: $14.41
Q4 2023: $4.42Q1 2024: $4.92Q2 2024: $5.12Q3 2024: $5.23Q4 2024: $6.50Q1 2025: $6.48Q2 2025: $6.61Q3 2025: $6.26Q4 2025: $5.74Q1 2026: $6.18Q2 2026: $6.03Q3 2026: $6.54Forward: $14.41
QuarterTTM EPSYoY
Forward$14.41+120%
Q3 2026$6.54+4.5%
Q2 2026$6.03-8.8%
Q1 2026$6.18-4.6%
Q4 2025$5.74-12%
Q3 2025$6.26+20%
Q2 2025$6.61+29%
Q1 2025$6.48+32%
Q4 2024$6.50+47%

AJG has the edge over COIN on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.

COIN Earnings Per Share

Q4 2023: $0.37Q1 2024: $5.11Q2 2024: $5.67Q3 2024: $5.96Q4 2024: $9.48Q1 2025: $5.32Q2 2025: $10.32Q3 2025: $11.54Q4 2025: $4.45Q1 2026: $2.72Q2 2026: $-3.78Q3 2026: $-2.77Forward: $1.36
Q4 2023: $0.37Q1 2024: $5.11Q2 2024: $5.67Q3 2024: $5.96Q4 2024: $9.48Q1 2025: $5.32Q2 2025: $10.32Q3 2025: $11.54Q4 2025: $4.45Q1 2026: $2.72Q2 2026: $-3.78Q3 2026: $-2.77Forward: $1.36
QuarterTTM EPSYoY
Forward$1.36โ€”
Q3 2026-$2.77-124%
Q2 2026-$3.78-137%
Q1 2026$2.72-49%
Q4 2025$4.45-53%
Q3 2025$11.54+94%
Q2 2025$10.32+82%
Q1 2025$5.32+4.1%
Q4 2024$9.48+2462%

COIN has swung to a loss: it lost $2.77 per share over the past year, after a profit the year before.

AJG Quarterly Revenue

Q4 2023: $2.4BQ1 2024: $3.3BQ2 2024: $2.8BQ3 2024: $2.8BQ4 2024: $2.7BQ1 2025: $3.7BQ2 2025: $3.2BQ3 2025: $3.4BQ4 2025: $3.6BQ1 2026: $4.8BQ2 2026: $4BQ3 2026: $4B
Q4 2023: $2.4BQ1 2024: $3.3BQ2 2024: $2.8BQ3 2024: $2.8BQ4 2024: $2.7BQ1 2025: $3.7BQ2 2025: $3.2BQ3 2025: $3.4BQ4 2025: $3.6BQ1 2026: $4.8BQ2 2026: $4BQ3 2026: $4B
QuarterRevenueYoY
Q3 2026$4B+18%
Q2 2026$4B+24%
Q1 2026$4.8B+28%
Q4 2025$3.6B+34%
Q3 2025$3.4B+20%
Q2 2025$3.2B+16%
Q1 2025$3.7B+14%
Q4 2024$2.7B+12%

AJG has the edge over COIN on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.

COIN Quarterly Revenue

Q4 2023: $954MQ1 2024: $1.6BQ2 2024: $1.4BQ3 2024: $1.2BQ4 2024: $2.3BQ1 2025: $2BQ2 2025: $1.5BQ3 2025: $1.9BQ4 2025: $1.8BQ1 2026: $1.4BQ2 2026: $1.2BQ3 2026: $1.2B
Q4 2023: $954MQ1 2024: $1.6BQ2 2024: $1.4BQ3 2024: $1.2BQ4 2024: $2.3BQ1 2025: $2BQ2 2025: $1.5BQ3 2025: $1.9BQ4 2025: $1.8BQ1 2026: $1.4BQ2 2026: $1.2BQ3 2026: $1.2B
QuarterRevenueYoY
Q3 2026$1.2B-35%
Q2 2026$1.2B-19%
Q1 2026$1.4B-31%
Q4 2025$1.8B-22%
Q3 2025$1.9B+55%
Q2 2025$1.5B+3.3%
Q1 2025$2B+24%
Q4 2024$2.3B+138%

COIN's revenue has slid since its 2021 peak: $1.2B last quarter, down 35% from the same quarter a year ago.

AJG Free Cash Flow

Q4 2023: $648MQ1 2024: $760MQ2 2024: $88MQ3 2024: $898MQ4 2024: $696MQ1 2025: $844MQ2 2025: โˆ’$466MQ3 2025: $694MQ4 2025: $713MQ1 2026: $921MQ2 2026: โˆ’$41MQ3 2026: $1.3B
Q4 2023: $648MQ1 2024: $760MQ2 2024: $88MQ3 2024: $898MQ4 2024: $696MQ1 2025: $844MQ2 2025: โˆ’$466MQ3 2025: $694MQ4 2025: $713MQ1 2026: $921MQ2 2026: โˆ’$41MQ3 2026: $1.3B
QuarterFree cash flowYoY
Q3 2026$1.3B+87%
Q2 2026-$41M+$424.5M
Q1 2026$921M+9.2%
Q4 2025$713.4M+2.5%
Q3 2025$693.5M-23%
Q2 2025-$465.5M-631%
Q1 2025$843.6M+11%
Q4 2024$695.7M+7.4%

AJG has the edge over COIN on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.

COIN Free Cash Flow

Q4 2023: โˆ’$5MQ1 2024: $411MQ2 2024: $484MQ3 2024: $697MQ4 2024: $965MQ1 2025: โˆ’$183MQ2 2025: $328MQ3 2025: โˆ’$785MQ4 2025: $3.1BQ1 2026: $183MQ2 2026: $197MQ3 2026: $405M
Q4 2023: โˆ’$5MQ1 2024: $411MQ2 2024: $484MQ3 2024: $697MQ4 2024: $965MQ1 2025: โˆ’$183MQ2 2025: $328MQ3 2025: โˆ’$785MQ4 2025: $3.1BQ1 2026: $183MQ2 2026: $197MQ3 2026: $405M
QuarterFree cash flowYoY
Q3 2026$405.5M+$1.2B
Q2 2026$197.3M-40%
Q1 2026$182.7M+$365.5M
Q4 2025$3.1B+218%
Q3 2025-$784.5M-213%
Q2 2025$328.5M-32%
Q1 2025-$182.7M-144%
Q4 2024$964.6M+$969.8M

COIN's free cash flow was $3.9B over the past year, more than ten times what it generated the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like COIN.

AJG Total Shares

Q4 2023: 215MQ1 2024: 218MQ2 2024: 219MQ3 2024: 219MQ4 2024: 221MQ1 2025: 255MQ2 2025: 256MQ3 2025: 257MQ4 2025: 256MQ1 2026: 257MQ2 2026: 257MQ3 2026: 257M
Q4 2023: 215MQ1 2024: 218MQ2 2024: 219MQ3 2024: 219MQ4 2024: 221MQ1 2025: 255MQ2 2025: 256MQ3 2025: 257MQ4 2025: 256MQ1 2026: 257MQ2 2026: 257MQ3 2026: 257M
PeriodChange %Net change
Quarterly0%--
1 year0%+100K shares
3 years+19%+41M shares
5 years+24%+49.7M shares
Available history+38%+70.7M shares

AJG has 257M diluted shares, about the same as a year ago.

COIN Total Shares

Q4 2023: 254MQ1 2024: 268MQ2 2024: 267MQ3 2024: 267MQ4 2024: 273MQ1 2025: 271MQ2 2025: 279MQ3 2025: 292MQ4 2025: 287MQ1 2026: 265MQ2 2026: 263MQ3 2026: 288M
Q4 2023: 254MQ1 2024: 268MQ2 2024: 267MQ3 2024: 267MQ4 2024: 273MQ1 2025: 271MQ2 2025: 279MQ3 2025: 292MQ4 2025: 287MQ1 2026: 265MQ2 2026: 263MQ3 2026: 288M
PeriodChange %Net change
Quarterly+9.3%+24.6M shares
1 year-1.4%-4M shares
3 years+21%+50.7M shares
5 years+15%+37.4M shares
Available history+330%+221M shares

COIN has the edge over AJG on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.

AJG Net Leverage

Q4 2023: 3.6xQ1 2024: 3.0xQ2 2024: 3.0xQ3 2024: 2.6xQ4 2024: -0.8xQ1 2025: -1.3xQ2 2025: -0.5xQ3 2025: 3.8xQ4 2025: 3.8xQ1 2026: 3.5xQ2 2026: 3.6xQ3 2026: 3.2x
Q4 2023: 3.6xQ1 2024: 3.0xQ2 2024: 3.0xQ3 2024: 2.6xQ4 2024: -0.8xQ1 2025: -1.3xQ2 2025: -0.5xQ3 2025: 3.8xQ4 2025: 3.8xQ1 2026: 3.5xQ2 2026: 3.6xQ3 2026: 3.2x
QuarterNet LeverageStatus
Q3 20263.2xElevated
Q2 20263.6xElevated
Q1 20263.5xElevated
Q4 20253.8xElevated
Q3 20253.8xElevated
Q2 2025-0.5xNet Cash
Q1 2025-1.3xNet Cash
Q4 2024-0.8xNet Cash

AJG's net debt is about 3.2 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 3.8 years a year ago. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like AJG.

COIN Net Leverage

Q1 2024: -2.9xQ2 2024: -2.4xQ3 2024: -2.3xQ4 2024: -1.8xQ1 2025: -1.6xQ2 2025: -1.6xQ3 2025: -0.6xQ4 2025: -2.3xQ1 2026: -2.8xQ2 2026: -2.5xQ3 2026: -4.4x
Q1 2024: -2.9xQ2 2024: -2.4xQ3 2024: -2.3xQ4 2024: -1.8xQ1 2025: -1.6xQ2 2025: -1.6xQ3 2025: -0.6xQ4 2025: -2.3xQ1 2026: -2.8xQ2 2026: -2.5xQ3 2026: -4.4x
QuarterNet LeverageStatus
Q3 2026-4.4xNet Cash
Q2 2026-2.5xNet Cash
Q1 2026-2.8xNet Cash
Q4 2025-2.3xNet Cash
Q3 2025-0.6xNet Cash
Q2 2025-1.6xNet Cash
Q1 2025-1.6xNet Cash
Q4 2024-1.8xNet Cash

COIN has the edge over AJG on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.

AJG Weekly Momentum

MetricValueStatus
RSI63.3Neutral
Stochastic85.8Overbought

AJG's weekly RSI is 63 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 86 (overbought).

COIN Weekly Momentum

MetricValueStatus
RSI35.3Neutral
Stochastic5.0Oversold

COIN's weekly RSI is 35 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 5 (oversold).

AJG PE vs Financial Services Sector

MetricAJGSector medianRelative
PE42x13x226% above
PE %66633 pts above

AJG is trading at 42x earnings, a 226% premium to the Financial Services sector's median of 13x.

COIN PE vs Financial Services Sector

MetricCOINSector medianRelative
PEN/A13xโ€”

COIN has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.

AJG Weekly Moving Averages

Moving averageMA priceRelative
8 week MA$256.08.3% above
20 week MA$253.99.2% above
50 week MA$237.617% above
100 week MA$271.82% above
200 week MA$256.18.3% above

AJG has the edge over COIN on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.

COIN Weekly Moving Averages

Moving averageMA priceRelative
8 week MA$163.020% below
20 week MA$165.621% below
50 week MA$184.429% below
100 week MA$232.844% below
200 week MA$190.331% below

COIN is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 31% below its 200-week average.

AJG Yearly ROI

YearStart priceEnd priceROI
2020$94.8$123.4+30%
2021$123.4$166.5+35%
2022$166.5$188.4+13%
2023$188.4$224.9+19%
2024$224.9$286.5+27%
2025$286.5$261.5-8.7%
2026 YTD$261.5$277.3+6%

AJG has the edge over COIN on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.

COIN Yearly ROI

YearStart priceEnd priceROI
2021$342.0$268.2-22%
2022$268.2$35.5-87%
2023$35.5$173.9+390%
2024$173.9$265.7+53%
2025$265.7$236.9-11%
2026 YTD$236.9$130.7-45%

COIN's yearly returns have swung widely, from +390% in 2023 to โˆ’87% in 2022. It's down 45% so far in 2026.

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