AIR
AAR Corp.
AIR has the edge over CAT overall, supported by stronger valuation.
CAT
Caterpillar Inc.
CAT has lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
AIR Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Stable |
AIR's revenue, profitability and cash flow are currently healthy, and its balance sheet is stable.
CAT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
CAT's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
AIR PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 18x | $108 | — |
| Cheap | 20x | $98.18 | -9.3% |
| Current | 22x | $108 | — |
| Fair | 31x | $151 | +40% |
| Expensive | 165x | $809 | +647% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
AIR has the edge over CAT in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
CAT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 15x | $380 | -37% |
| Fair | 18x | $461 | -24% |
| Forward | 20x | $605 | — |
| Current | 24x | $605 | — |
| Expensive | 33x | $840 | +39% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CAT's PE is in its expensive range at 24x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 20x next year's earnings, in its fair range.
AIR Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Stable | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for AIR, with profitability holding steady.
CAT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
CAT has the edge over AIR on the outlook, with more favorable profitability expectations.
AIR Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $5.92 | +21% |
| Q3 2026 | $4.91 | +514% |
| Q2 2026 | $4.86 | +1289% |
| Q1 2026 | $4.53 | +$4.90 |
| Q4 2025 | $2.57 | +852% |
| Q3 2025 | $0.80 | -56% |
| Q2 2025 | $0.35 | -73% |
| Q1 2025 | -$0.37 | -122% |
| Q4 2024 | $0.27 | -86% |
AIR has the edge over CAT on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
CAT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $30.32 | +19% |
| Q3 2026 | $25.48 | +31% |
| Q2 2026 | $23.23 | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.08 | -2% |
| Q4 2025 | $18.81 | -15% |
| Q3 2025 | $19.46 | -9.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $19.64 | -10% |
| Q1 2025 | $20.50 | -7.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $22.05 | +9.6% |
CAT earned $25.48 per share over the past year, up 31% from the year before.
AIR Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $918M | +24% |
| Q2 2026 | $928M | +23% |
| Q1 2026 | $845.1M | +25% |
| Q4 2025 | $795.3M | +16% |
| Q3 2025 | $739.6M | +12% |
| Q2 2025 | $754.5M | +15% |
| Q1 2025 | $678.2M | +20% |
| Q4 2024 | $686.1M | +26% |
AIR has the edge over CAT on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 6% | -0.3 points |
| Q2 2026 | 6.2% | N/A |
| Q1 2026 | 11% | N/A |
| Q4 2025 | 6% | N/A |
| Q3 2025 | 6.3% | N/A |
| Q2 2023 | 6.6% | -0.3 points |
| Q1 2023 | 6.8% | -0.1 points |
| Q4 2022 | 7% | +0.1 points |
AIR's operating margin was 6% last quarter, about level with the same quarter a year ago.
CAT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.7B | +17% |
| Q2 2026 | $20.5B | +24% |
| Q1 2026 | $17.4B | +22% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.1B | +18% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.6B | +9.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.6B | -0.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $14.2B | -9.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | -5% |
CAT's revenue has grown year over year for five quarters in a row: $20.7B last quarter, up 17% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 20% | +3.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 21% | +3.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 18% | -0.4 points |
| Q4 2025 | 14% | -4.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 17% | -2.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 17% | -3.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 18% | -4.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 18% | -0.3 points |
CAT has the edge over AIR on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
AIR Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $44M | +$97.6M |
| Q2 2026 | $43.3M | +4.6% |
| Q1 2026 | $66.2M | +$93.4M |
| Q4 2025 | $6.2M | -55% |
| Q3 2025 | -$53.6M | -$27.1M |
| Q2 2025 | $41.4M | +144% |
| Q1 2025 | -$27.2M | -286% |
| Q4 2024 | $13.7M | +36% |
AIR has the edge over CAT on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
CAT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.7B | +19% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.8B | +47% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.1B | +97% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.7B | +0.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.1B | -1.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.6B | -4.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $579M | -63% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.7B | -22% |
CAT generated $11.3B in free cash flow over the past year, up 26% from the year before.
AIR Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +3.9% | +1.5M shares |
| 1 year | +11% | +4M shares |
| 3 years | +14% | +4.8M shares |
| 5 years | +13% | +4.6M shares |
| Available history | +14% | +4.9M shares |
AIR has 40M diluted shares, up 11% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2024 | — |
| Q2 2023 | — |
| Q1 2023 | — |
| Q4 2022 | $28.2M |
| Q3 2022 | $21.9M |
| Q2 2022 | $22.2M |
| Q2 2020 | — |
| Q1 2020 | — |
CAT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.3% | -1.6M shares |
| 1 year | -2.1% | -9.9M shares |
| 3 years | -10% | -51.7M shares |
| 5 years | -16% | -86.7M shares |
| Available history | -19% | -107M shares |
CAT has the edge over AIR on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.2B |
| Q2 2026 | $1.5B |
| Q1 2026 | $5B |
| Q4 2025 | $340M |
| Q3 2025 | $362M |
| Q2 2025 | $828M |
| Q1 2025 | $3.7B |
| Q4 2024 | $640M |
CAT spent $8.1B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 47% from the year before.
AIR Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 2.3x | Moderate |
| Q2 2026 | 2.6x | Moderate |
| Q2 2023 | 1.2x | Healthy |
| Q1 2023 | 0.8x | Very low |
| Q4 2022 | 0.9x | Very low |
| Q3 2022 | 0.4x | Very low |
| Q2 2022 | 0.3x | Very low |
| Q1 2022 | 0.5x | Very low |
AIR's net debt is about 2.3 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), up from less than a year a year ago.
CAT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | -0.6x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | 1.6x | Healthy |
CAT has the edge over AIR on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
AIR Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 45.3 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 24.1 | Neutral |
AIR's weekly RSI is 45 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 24 (neutral).
CAT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 32.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 6.7 | Oversold |
CAT's weekly RSI is 33 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 7 (oversold).
AIR PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | AIR | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 22x | 24x | 8.4% below |
| PE % | 31 | 58 | 27 pts below |
AIR has the edge over CAT on valuation relative to its sector.
CAT PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | CAT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 24x | 24x | 1.3% below |
| PE % | 69 | 58 | 11 pts above |
CAT is trading at 24x earnings, in line with the Industrials sector's median of 24x.
AIR Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $103.9 | 4.2% above |
| 20 week MA | $121.6 | 11% below |
| 50 week MA | $113.7 | 4.8% below |
| 100 week MA | $91.7 | 18% above |
| 200 week MA | $76.6 | 41% above |
AIR has the edge over CAT on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
CAT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $709.0 | 15% below |
| 20 week MA | $797.0 | 24% below |
| 50 week MA | $771.3 | 22% below |
| 100 week MA | $586.7 | 3.2% above |
| 200 week MA | $443.1 | 37% above |
CAT has pulled back, but its long-term trend is still up: it's below its 8-, 20- and 50-week averages, but 37% above its 200-week average.
AIR Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $45.3 | $35.5 | -22% |
| 2021 | $35.5 | $38.5 | +8.5% |
| 2022 | $38.5 | $42.9 | +11% |
| 2023 | $42.9 | $62.4 | +45% |
| 2024 | $62.4 | $60.4 | -3.2% |
| 2025 | $60.4 | $85.1 | +41% |
| 2026 YTD | $85.1 | $108.3 | +27% |
AIR has the edge over CAT on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
CAT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $148.3 | $179.6 | +21% |
| 2021 | $179.6 | $206.2 | +15% |
| 2022 | $206.2 | $239.9 | +16% |
| 2023 | $239.9 | $295.7 | +23% |
| 2024 | $295.7 | $364.9 | +23% |
| 2025 | $364.9 | $583.0 | +60% |
| 2026 YTD | $583.0 | $605.3 | +3.8% |
CAT has finished every year since 2020 higher, and it's up 3.8% so far in 2026.