AIG
American International Group, Inc.
AIG has slightly lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
MS
Morgan Stanley
MS has the edge over AIG overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and stronger valuation.
AIG Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
AIG's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like AIG.
MS Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
MS's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like MS.
AIG PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 4.6x | $28.10 | -66% |
| Forward | 9.7x | $82.57 | — |
| Fair | 11x | $67.19 | -19% |
| Current | 13x | $82.57 | — |
| Expensive | 14x | $89.12 | +7.9% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
AIG's PE is in its expensive range at 13x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 9.7x next year's earnings, in its fair range.
MS PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 11x | $134 | -29% |
| Fair | 14x | $178 | -5.7% |
| Forward | 14x | $189 | — |
| Current | 15x | $189 | — |
| Expensive | 18x | $223 | +18% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MS has the edge over AIG in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
AIG Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for AIG, with profitability improving.
MS Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for MS, with profitability improving.
AIG Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $8.55 | +39% |
| Q3 2026 | $6.15 | +12% |
| Q2 2026 | $5.48 | +3.8% |
| Q1 2026 | $5.68 | +$8.34 |
| Q4 2025 | $5.43 | +$7.51 |
| Q3 2025 | $5.50 | +$8.90 |
| Q2 2025 | $5.28 | +$6.58 |
| Q1 2025 | -$2.66 | -140% |
| Q4 2024 | -$2.08 | -142% |
AIG's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $6.15 over the past year, against $16.81 in late 2022.
MS Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $13.39 | +6.3% |
| Q3 2026 | $12.60 | +29% |
| Q2 2026 | $12.37 | +40% |
| Q1 2026 | $11.04 | +29% |
| Q4 2025 | $10.21 | +28% |
| Q3 2025 | $9.76 | +48% |
| Q2 2025 | $8.84 | +45% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.53 | +55% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.95 | +53% |
MS has the edge over AIG on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
AIG Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $7.4B | +17% |
| Q2 2026 | $7.1B | -0.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $6.7B | -2% |
| Q4 2025 | $6.6B | -8.7% |
| Q3 2025 | $6.4B | -5.9% |
| Q2 2025 | $7.1B | +8.1% |
| Q1 2025 | $6.8B | -46% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.2B | -27% |
AIG's revenue is recovering but still below its 2022 peak: $7.4B last quarter, up 17% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 15% | +3.8 points |
| Q2 2026 | 18% | -3.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 15% | +0.7 points |
| Q4 2025 | 10% | -11 points |
| Q3 2025 | 11% | +1.6 points |
| Q2 2025 | 22% | +12 points |
| Q1 2025 | 14% | -2.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 22% | +35 points |
AIG's operating margin was 15% last quarter, up 3.8 points from the same quarter a year ago.
MS Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.3B | +12% |
| Q2 2026 | $21.3B | +27% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.6B | +16% |
| Q4 2025 | $17.9B | +10% |
| Q3 2025 | $18.2B | +18% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.8B | +12% |
| Q1 2025 | $17.7B | +17% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | +26% |
MS has the edge over AIG on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 32% | -1.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 34% | +6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 34% | +2.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 32% | +2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 33% | +5.6 points |
| Q2 2025 | 28% | +0.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 31% | +2.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 30% | +14 points |
MS has the edge over AIG on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
AIG Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $2.7B | +100% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.7B | +23% |
| Q1 2026 | $155M | +$211M |
| Q4 2025 | $636M | +409% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.3B | -21% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.4B | +50% |
| Q1 2025 | -$56M | -111% |
| Q3 2024 | $1.7B | -52% |
AIG has the edge over MS on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
MS Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$46B | -$42.7B |
| Q2 2026 | -$2.7B | -123% |
| Q1 2026 | -$7.1B | +$16.9B |
| Q4 2025 | -$2.4B | -120% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.3B | +$14B |
| Q2 2025 | $11.8B | +368% |
| Q1 2025 | -$24B | -650% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.8B | +$29.6B |
MS's free cash flow was −$58.3B over the past year, against −$3.7B the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
AIG Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -1.2% | -6.3M shares |
| 1 year | -5.6% | -31.3M shares |
| 3 years | -27% | -192M shares |
| 5 years | -39% | -337M shares |
| Available history | -41% | -369M shares |
AIG has the edge over MS on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $529M |
| Q2 2026 | $645M |
| Q1 2026 | $508M |
| Q4 2025 | $584M |
| Q3 2025 | $1.2B |
| Q2 2025 | $1.8B |
| Q1 2025 | $2.2B |
| Q4 2024 | $1.8B |
AIG spent $2.3B buying back its own shares over the past year, down 68% from the year before.
MS Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.2% | -3M shares |
| 1 year | -1.5% | -24M shares |
| 3 years | -4.7% | -77M shares |
| 5 years | -14% | -246M shares |
| Available history | -4.5% | -74M shares |
MS has 1.6B diluted shares, down 1.5% from a year ago.
AIG Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.2x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.2x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.2x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | 1.1x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | -0.2x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.2x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.2x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | 0.9x | Very low |
AIG has the edge over MS on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
MS Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 7.8x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 7.3x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 8.2x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 8.6x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 8.4x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 7.9x | High |
MS's net debt is about 7.8 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 8.4 years a year ago. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
AIG Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 59.8 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 75.3 | Neutral |
AIG's weekly RSI is 60 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 75 (neutral).
MS Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 45.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 18.7 | Oversold |
MS's weekly RSI is 45 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 19 (oversold).
AIG PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | AIG | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 13x | 13x | 3.1% above |
| PE % | 69 | 63 | 6 pts above |
AIG has the edge over MS on valuation relative to its sector.
MS PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | MS | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 15x | 13x | 15% above |
| PE % | 59 | 63 | 4 pts below |
MS is trading at 15x earnings, a 15% premium to the Financial Services sector's median of 13x.
AIG Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $78.8 | 4.8% above |
| 20 week MA | $78.1 | 5.7% above |
| 50 week MA | $77.7 | 6.3% above |
| 100 week MA | $78.6 | 5% above |
| 200 week MA | $72.6 | 14% above |
AIG has the edge over MS on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
MS Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $186.5 | 1.5% above |
| 20 week MA | $203.3 | 6.9% below |
| 50 week MA | $191.9 | 1.4% below |
| 100 week MA | $164.9 | 15% above |
| 200 week MA | $129.3 | 46% above |
MS's trend is mixed: it's above three of its five weekly moving averages, and 46% above its 200-week average.
AIG Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $51.1 | $37.4 | -27% |
| 2021 | $37.4 | $56.6 | +51% |
| 2022 | $56.6 | $63.2 | +12% |
| 2023 | $63.2 | $67.8 | +7.3% |
| 2024 | $67.8 | $73.0 | +7.7% |
| 2025 | $73.0 | $86.5 | +18% |
| 2026 YTD | $86.5 | $82.6 | -4.5% |
AIG has finished higher in five of the last six years. It's down 4.5% so far in 2026.
MS Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $51.1 | $68.1 | +33% |
| 2021 | $68.1 | $99.3 | +46% |
| 2022 | $99.3 | $86.1 | -13% |
| 2023 | $86.1 | $93.3 | +8.3% |
| 2024 | $93.3 | $126.8 | +36% |
| 2025 | $126.8 | $181.9 | +43% |
| 2026 YTD | $181.9 | $189.2 | +4% |
MS has the edge over AIG on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.