ADTN
ADTRAN Holdings, Inc.
ADTN trails on the overall score without a compensating advantage in the available component scores.
MSFT
Microsoft Corporation
MSFT has the edge over ADTN overall, supported by lower modeled downside and stronger valuation.
ADTN Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| Under pressure | |
| Weak |
ADTN's revenue and profitability are currently stable, but its cash flow and balance sheet are under pressure.
MSFT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Healthy | |
| Strong |
MSFT's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
ADTN PE Valuation
ADTN has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
MSFT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 25x | $523 | — |
| Cheap | 27x | $525 | +0.4% |
| Current | 27x | $523 | — |
| Fair | 34x | $652 | +25% |
| Expensive | 37x | $711 | +36% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MSFT's PE is in its cheap range at 27x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 25x next year's earnings.
ADTN Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| Weakening | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect ADTN's profitability to weaken, with its earnings and revenue holding steady. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
MSFT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Stable | |
| Moderate | |
| High |
MSFT has the edge over ADTN on the outlook, with more favorable earnings and revenue expectations.
ADTN Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $0.31 | — |
| Q3 2026 | -$0.26 | +$0.82 |
| Q2 2026 | -$0.28 | +$1.04 |
| Q1 2026 | -$0.39 | +$1.32 |
| Q4 2025 | -$0.52 | +$5.17 |
| Q3 2025 | -$1.08 | +$5.43 |
| Q2 2025 | -$1.32 | +$5.83 |
| Q1 2025 | -$1.71 | +$5.31 |
| Q4 2024 | -$5.69 | -$2.28 |
ADTN is still losing money, but far less than before: $0.26 per share over the past year, against $7.15 at its worst in mid-2024.
MSFT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $20.79 | +8.6% |
| Q3 2026 | $19.15 | +36% |
| Q2 2026 | $17.95 | +32% |
| Q1 2026 | $16.80 | +30% |
| Q4 2025 | $15.99 | +29% |
| Q3 2025 | $14.06 | +16% |
| Q2 2025 | $13.64 | +16% |
| Q1 2025 | $12.93 | +12% |
| Q4 2024 | $12.41 | +12% |
MSFT has the edge over ADTN on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
ADTN Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $281.2M | +0.6% |
| Q2 2026 | $281.1M | +6.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $286.1M | +15% |
| Q4 2025 | $291.6M | +20% |
| Q3 2025 | $279.4M | +23% |
| Q2 2025 | $265.1M | +17% |
| Q1 2025 | $247.7M | +9.5% |
| Q4 2024 | $242.9M | +7.7% |
ADTN's revenue has grown year over year for eight quarters in a row: $281M last quarter, about level with the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.3% | +0.7 points |
| Q2 2026 | -3.6% | +1.4 points |
| Q1 2026 | 2.2% | +3.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 1.5% | +8.4 points |
| Q3 2025 | -1% | +9.5 points |
| Q2 2025 | -5% | +12 points |
| Q1 2025 | -1.6% | +149 points |
| Q4 2024 | -6.9% | +9.8 points |
ADTN's operating margin was −0.3% last quarter, up 0.7 points from the same quarter a year ago.
MSFT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $92.3B | +19% |
| Q2 2026 | $90B | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $82.9B | +18% |
| Q4 2025 | $81.3B | +17% |
| Q3 2025 | $77.7B | +18% |
| Q2 2025 | $76.4B | +18% |
| Q1 2025 | $70.1B | +13% |
| Q4 2024 | $69.6B | +12% |
MSFT has the edge over ADTN on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 50% | +0.9 points |
| Q2 2026 | 45% | +0.2 points |
| Q1 2026 | 46% | +0.7 points |
| Q4 2025 | 47% | +1.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 49% | +2.3 points |
| Q2 2025 | 45% | +1.8 points |
| Q1 2025 | 46% | +1.1 points |
| Q4 2024 | 45% | +1.9 points |
MSFT has the edge over ADTN on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
ADTN Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$30.2M | -819% |
| Q2 2026 | $17M | -38% |
| Q1 2026 | $5.2M | -86% |
| Q4 2025 | $30.6M | +$31.5M |
| Q3 2025 | $4.2M | -82% |
| Q2 2025 | $27.5M | +604% |
| Q1 2025 | $35.8M | +54% |
| Q4 2024 | -$895K | +$24.8M |
ADTN has the edge over MSFT on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
MSFT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $18.6B | -27% |
| Q2 2026 | $19.6B | -23% |
| Q1 2026 | $15.8B | -22% |
| Q4 2025 | $5.9B | -9.3% |
| Q3 2025 | $25.7B | +33% |
| Q2 2025 | $25.6B | +9.6% |
| Q1 2025 | $20.3B | -3.2% |
| Q4 2024 | $6.5B | -29% |
MSFT's free cash flow has been positive every quarter for seven years: $60B over the past year, down 23% from the year before.
ADTN Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.3% | +274K shares |
| 1 year | +1.8% | +1.4M shares |
| 3 years | +3.6% | +2.8M shares |
| 5 years | +64% | +31.8M shares |
| Available history | +70% | +33.4M shares |
ADTN has 81M diluted shares, up 1.8% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q4 2019 | — |
MSFT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.1% | -7M shares |
| 1 year | -0.3% | -20M shares |
| 3 years | -0.2% | -16M shares |
| 5 years | -1.6% | -121M shares |
| Available history | -3.2% | -245M shares |
MSFT has the edge over ADTN on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $4.4B |
| Q2 2026 | $4.6B |
| Q1 2026 | $4.6B |
| Q4 2025 | $7.4B |
| Q3 2025 | $5.7B |
| Q2 2025 | $4.5B |
| Q1 2025 | $4.8B |
| Q4 2024 | $5B |
MSFT spent $21B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 5.2% from the year before.
ADTN Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 4.5x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 2.6x | Moderate |
| Q1 2026 | 2.6x | Moderate |
| Q4 2025 | 3.2x | Elevated |
| Q3 2025 | 6.5x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 16.1x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 39.3x | High |
| Q2 2022 | -7.4x | Net Cash |
ADTN's net debt is about 4.5 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 6.5 years a year ago.
MSFT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q2 2026 | 0.1x | Very low |
MSFT has the edge over ADTN on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
ADTN Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 31.6 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 9.6 | Oversold |
ADTN's weekly RSI is 32 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 10 (oversold).
MSFT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 62.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 68.0 | Neutral |
MSFT's weekly RSI is 62 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 68 (neutral).
ADTN PE vs Technology Sector
| Metric | ADTN | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | N/A | 28x | — |
ADTN has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
MSFT PE vs Technology Sector
| Metric | MSFT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 27x | 28x | 2% below |
| PE % | 16 | 35 | 19 pts below |
MSFT is trading at 27x earnings, in line with the Technology sector's median of 28x.
ADTN Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $6.22 | 22% below |
| 20 week MA | $7.96 | 39% below |
| 50 week MA | $10.5 | 54% below |
| 100 week MA | $9.73 | 50% below |
| 200 week MA | $8.95 | 46% below |
ADTN is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 46% below its 200-week average.
MSFT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $524.7 | 0.3% below |
| 20 week MA | $484.8 | 7.9% above |
| 50 week MA | $446.9 | 17% above |
| 100 week MA | $453.8 | 15% above |
| 200 week MA | $411.5 | 27% above |
MSFT has the edge over ADTN on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
ADTN Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $9.74 | $15.0 | +54% |
| 2021 | $15.0 | $22.0 | +47% |
| 2022 | $22.0 | $18.8 | -15% |
| 2023 | $18.8 | $7.34 | -61% |
| 2024 | $7.34 | $8.21 | +12% |
| 2025 | $8.21 | $8.75 | +6.6% |
| 2026 YTD | $8.75 | $4.86 | -44% |
ADTN is down 44% so far in 2026, after finishing higher in four of the previous six years.
MSFT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $159.0 | $222.8 | +40% |
| 2021 | $222.8 | $334.7 | +50% |
| 2022 | $334.7 | $238.7 | -29% |
| 2023 | $238.7 | $376.0 | +58% |
| 2024 | $376.0 | $430.5 | +14% |
| 2025 | $430.5 | $487.7 | +13% |
| 2026 YTD | $487.7 | $523.0 | +7.2% |
MSFT has the edge over ADTN on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.