ADTN

ADTRAN Holdings, Inc.

43
Fundamentals66/ 100
Valuation50/ 100
Upside potential63/ 100
Risk potential40/ 100

ADTN lost money over the past year, so it has no meaningful PE right now. Analysts expect earnings to hold roughly steady, though they disagree widely on how much.

ADTN Fundamentals

MetricStatus
Stable
Stable
Under pressure
Weak

ADTN's revenue and profitability are currently stable, but its cash flow and balance sheet are under pressure.

ADTN PE Valuation

ADTN has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.

ADTN Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
--
Stable
Stable
Weakening
Limited
Low

Analysts expect ADTN's profitability to weaken, with its earnings and revenue holding steady. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.

ADTN Risk to reward

ScenarioChangePrice
Upside+67%$8.12
Downside-40%$2.90

Calculated from the latest close: $4.86 on Nov 12.

ADTN's one-year upside scenario is somewhat larger than its downside: +67% against −40%.

ADTN Earnings Per Share

Q4 2023: $-3.41Q1 2024: $-7.02Q2 2024: $-7.15Q3 2024: $-6.51Q4 2024: $-5.69Q1 2025: $-1.71Q2 2025: $-1.32Q3 2025: $-1.08Q4 2025: $-0.52Q1 2026: $-0.39Q2 2026: $-0.28Q3 2026: $-0.26Forward: $0.31
Q4 2023: $-3.41Q1 2024: $-7.02Q2 2024: $-7.15Q3 2024: $-6.51Q4 2024: $-5.69Q1 2025: $-1.71Q2 2025: $-1.32Q3 2025: $-1.08Q4 2025: $-0.52Q1 2026: $-0.39Q2 2026: $-0.28Q3 2026: $-0.26Forward: $0.31
QuarterTTM EPSYoY
Forward$0.31—
Q3 2026-$0.26+$0.82
Q2 2026-$0.28+$1.04
Q1 2026-$0.39+$1.32
Q4 2025-$0.52+$5.17
Q3 2025-$1.08+$5.43
Q2 2025-$1.32+$5.83
Q1 2025-$1.71+$5.31
Q4 2024-$5.69-$2.28

ADTN is still losing money, but far less than before: $0.26 per share over the past year, against $7.15 at its worst in mid-2024.

ADTN Quarterly Revenue

Q4 2023: $225MQ1 2024: $226MQ2 2024: $226MQ3 2024: $228MQ4 2024: $243MQ1 2025: $248MQ2 2025: $265MQ3 2025: $279MQ4 2025: $292MQ1 2026: $286MQ2 2026: $281MQ3 2026: $281M
Q4 2023: $225MQ1 2024: $226MQ2 2024: $226MQ3 2024: $228MQ4 2024: $243MQ1 2025: $248MQ2 2025: $265MQ3 2025: $279MQ4 2025: $292MQ1 2026: $286MQ2 2026: $281MQ3 2026: $281M
QuarterRevenueYoY
Q3 2026$281.2M+0.6%
Q2 2026$281.1M+6.1%
Q1 2026$286.1M+15%
Q4 2025$291.6M+20%
Q3 2025$279.4M+23%
Q2 2025$265.1M+17%
Q1 2025$247.7M+9.5%
Q4 2024$242.9M+7.7%

ADTN's revenue has grown year over year for eight quarters in a row: $281M last quarter, about level with the same quarter a year ago.

ADTN Free Cash Flow

Q4 2023: −$26MQ1 2024: $23MQ2 2024: $4MQ3 2024: $23MQ4 2024: −$895,000Q1 2025: $36MQ2 2025: $27MQ3 2025: $4MQ4 2025: $31MQ1 2026: $5MQ2 2026: $17MQ3 2026: −$30M
Q4 2023: −$26MQ1 2024: $23MQ2 2024: $4MQ3 2024: $23MQ4 2024: −$895,000Q1 2025: $36MQ2 2025: $27MQ3 2025: $4MQ4 2025: $31MQ1 2026: $5MQ2 2026: $17MQ3 2026: −$30M
QuarterFree cash flowYoY
Q3 2026-$30.2M-819%
Q2 2026$17M-38%
Q1 2026$5.2M-86%
Q4 2025$30.6M+$31.5M
Q3 2025$4.2M-82%
Q2 2025$27.5M+604%
Q1 2025$35.8M+54%
Q4 2024-$895K+$24.8M

ADTN usually generates cash, though not every quarter: the latest was −$30M, but it generated $22M over the past year.

ADTN Total Shares

Q4 2023: 78MQ1 2024: 79MQ2 2024: 79MQ3 2024: 79MQ4 2024: 79MQ1 2025: 80MQ2 2025: 80MQ3 2025: 80MQ4 2025: 80MQ1 2026: 80MQ2 2026: 81MQ3 2026: 81M
Q4 2023: 78MQ1 2024: 79MQ2 2024: 79MQ3 2024: 79MQ4 2024: 79MQ1 2025: 80MQ2 2025: 80MQ3 2025: 80MQ4 2025: 80MQ1 2026: 80MQ2 2026: 81MQ3 2026: 81M
PeriodChange %Net change
Quarterly+0.3%+274K shares
1 year+1.8%+1.4M shares
3 years+3.6%+2.8M shares
5 years+64%+31.8M shares
Available history+70%+33.4M shares

ADTN has 81M diluted shares, up 1.8% from a year ago.

ADTN Net Leverage

Q1 2025: 39.3xQ2 2025: 16.1xQ3 2025: 6.5xQ4 2025: 3.2xQ1 2026: 2.6xQ2 2026: 2.6xQ3 2026: 4.5x
Q1 2025: 39.3xQ2 2025: 16.1xQ3 2025: 6.5xQ4 2025: 3.2xQ1 2026: 2.6xQ2 2026: 2.6xQ3 2026: 4.5x
QuarterNet LeverageStatus
Q3 20264.5xHigh
Q2 20262.6xModerate
Q1 20262.6xModerate
Q4 20253.2xElevated
Q3 20256.5xHigh
Q2 202516.1xHigh
Q1 202539.3xHigh
Q2 2022-7.4xNet Cash

ADTN's net debt is about 4.5 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 6.5 years a year ago.

ADTN Weekly Momentum

MetricValueStatus
RSI31.6Neutral
Stochastic9.6Oversold

ADTN's weekly RSI is 32 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 10 (oversold).

ADTN PE vs Technology Sector

MetricADTNSector medianRelative
PEN/A28x—

ADTN has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.

ADTN Weekly Moving Averages

Moving averageMA priceRelative
8 week MA$6.2222% below
20 week MA$7.9639% below
50 week MA$10.554% below
100 week MA$9.7350% below
200 week MA$8.9546% below

ADTN is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 46% below its 200-week average.

ADTN Yearly ROI

YearStart priceEnd priceROI
2020$9.74$15.0+54%
2021$15.0$22.0+47%
2022$22.0$18.8-15%
2023$18.8$7.34-61%
2024$7.34$8.21+12%
2025$8.21$8.75+6.6%
2026 YTD$8.75$4.86-44%

ADTN is down 44% so far in 2026, after finishing higher in four of the previous six years.

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