ADTN
ADTRAN Holdings, Inc.
ADTN has lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
ASTS
AST SpaceMobile, Inc.
ASTS has the edge over ADTN overall, supported by stronger modeled upside.
ADTN Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| Under pressure | |
| Weak |
ADTN's revenue and profitability are currently stable, but its cash flow and balance sheet are under pressure.
ASTS Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Weak | |
| Weak | |
| Unavailable |
ASTS's revenue is currently healthy, but its profitability and cash flow are weak. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
ADTN PE Valuation
ADTN has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
ASTS PE Valuation
ASTS has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
ADTN Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| Weakening | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect ADTN's profitability to weaken, with its earnings and revenue holding steady. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
ASTS Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Losses growing | |
| Strong growth | |
| -- | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect ASTS's losses to grow, with revenue growing. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
ADTN Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $0.31 | — |
| Q3 2026 | -$0.26 | +$0.82 |
| Q2 2026 | -$0.28 | +$1.04 |
| Q1 2026 | -$0.39 | +$1.32 |
| Q4 2025 | -$0.52 | +$5.17 |
| Q3 2025 | -$1.08 | +$5.43 |
| Q2 2025 | -$1.32 | +$5.83 |
| Q1 2025 | -$1.71 | +$5.31 |
| Q4 2024 | -$5.69 | -$2.28 |
ADTN has the edge over ASTS on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
ASTS Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$2.15 | -$0.91 |
| Q2 2026 | -$2.16 | -$0.27 |
| Q1 2026 | -$1.80 | +$0.19 |
| Q4 2025 | -$1.34 | +$0.61 |
| Q3 2025 | -$1.24 | +$0.88 |
| Q2 2025 | -$1.89 | -$0.64 |
| Q1 2025 | -$1.99 | -$1.01 |
| Q4 2022 | -$0.58 | -$0.21 |
ASTS is still losing money, but far less than before: $2.15 per share over the past year, against $5.76 at its worst in mid-2021.
ADTN Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $281.2M | +0.6% |
| Q2 2026 | $281.1M | +6.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $286.1M | +15% |
| Q4 2025 | $291.6M | +20% |
| Q3 2025 | $279.4M | +23% |
| Q2 2025 | $265.1M | +17% |
| Q1 2025 | $247.7M | +9.5% |
| Q4 2024 | $242.9M | +7.7% |
ADTN's revenue has grown year over year for eight quarters in a row: $281M last quarter, about level with the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.3% | +0.7 points |
| Q2 2026 | -3.6% | +1.4 points |
| Q1 2026 | 2.2% | +3.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 1.5% | +8.4 points |
| Q3 2025 | -1% | +9.5 points |
| Q2 2025 | -5% | +12 points |
| Q1 2025 | -1.6% | +149 points |
| Q4 2024 | -6.9% | +9.8 points |
ADTN has the edge over ASTS on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
ASTS Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $42.3M | +187% |
| Q2 2026 | $31.5M | +2627% |
| Q1 2026 | $14.7M | +1952% |
| Q4 2025 | $54.3M | +2731% |
| Q3 2025 | $14.7M | +1240% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.2M | +28% |
| Q1 2025 | $718K | +44% |
| Q3 2022 | $4.2M | +70% |
ASTS's revenue has grown year over year for 11 quarters in a row: $42M last quarter, up 187% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -415% | +694 points |
| Q2 2026 | -948% | +10744 points |
| Q1 2026 | -1686% | +7083 points |
| Q4 2025 | -175% | +2446 points |
| Q3 2025 | -1109% | +4850 points |
| Q2 2025 | -11692% | -4693 points |
| Q1 2025 | -8769% | +2331 points |
| Q4 2024 | -2621% | N/A |
ASTS's operating margin was −415% last quarter, up 694 points from the same quarter a year ago.
ADTN Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$30.2M | -819% |
| Q2 2026 | $17M | -38% |
| Q1 2026 | $5.2M | -86% |
| Q4 2025 | $30.6M | +$31.5M |
| Q3 2025 | $4.2M | -82% |
| Q2 2025 | $27.5M | +604% |
| Q1 2025 | $35.8M | +54% |
| Q4 2024 | -$895K | +$24.8M |
ADTN has the edge over ASTS on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
ASTS Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$464.2M | -$161.4M |
| Q2 2026 | -$694.8M | -$341.1M |
| Q1 2026 | -$309.7M | -$160.7M |
| Q4 2025 | -$330.7M | -$220.3M |
| Q3 2025 | -$302.9M | -$239.1M |
| Q2 2025 | -$353.6M | -$315.3M |
| Q1 2025 | -$149M | -$61.3M |
| Q4 2024 | -$110.5M | -$63.2M |
ASTS has burned cash in almost every quarter: −$1.8B over the past year, against −$916M the year before.
ADTN Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.3% | +274K shares |
| 1 year | +1.8% | +1.4M shares |
| 3 years | +3.6% | +2.8M shares |
| 5 years | +64% | +31.8M shares |
| Available history | +70% | +33.4M shares |
ADTN has the edge over ASTS on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q4 2019 | — |
ASTS Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.4% | +1.1M shares |
| 1 year | +10% | +27.3M shares |
| 3 years | +235% | +211M shares |
| 5 years | +480% | +248M shares |
| Available history | +944% | +271M shares |
ASTS has 300M diluted shares, up 10% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q3 2024 | — |
| Q2 2024 | — |
| Q1 2024 | — |
| Q4 2023 | — |
| Q3 2023 | — |
| Q2 2023 | — |
ADTN Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 4.5x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 2.6x | Moderate |
| Q1 2026 | 2.6x | Moderate |
| Q4 2025 | 3.2x | Elevated |
| Q3 2025 | 6.5x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 16.1x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 39.3x | High |
| Q2 2022 | -7.4x | Net Cash |
ADTN's net debt is about 4.5 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 6.5 years a year ago.
ASTS Net Leverage
ASTS's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
ADTN Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 31.6 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 9.6 | Oversold |
ADTN's weekly RSI is 32 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 10 (oversold).
ASTS Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 34.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 11.9 | Oversold |
ASTS's weekly RSI is 34 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 12 (oversold).
ADTN PE vs Technology Sector
| Metric | ADTN | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | N/A | 28x | — |
ADTN has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
ASTS PE vs Technology Sector
ASTS has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
ADTN Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $6.22 | 22% below |
| 20 week MA | $7.96 | 39% below |
| 50 week MA | $10.5 | 54% below |
| 100 week MA | $9.73 | 50% below |
| 200 week MA | $8.95 | 46% below |
ADTN is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 46% below its 200-week average.
ASTS Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $44.9 | 23% below |
| 20 week MA | $57.1 | 40% below |
| 50 week MA | $75.5 | 54% below |
| 100 week MA | $57.8 | 40% below |
| 200 week MA | $33.6 | 2.8% above |
ASTS has the edge over ADTN on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
ADTN Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $9.74 | $15.0 | +54% |
| 2021 | $15.0 | $22.0 | +47% |
| 2022 | $22.0 | $18.8 | -15% |
| 2023 | $18.8 | $7.34 | -61% |
| 2024 | $7.34 | $8.21 | +12% |
| 2025 | $8.21 | $8.75 | +6.6% |
| 2026 YTD | $8.75 | $4.86 | -44% |
ADTN has the edge over ASTS on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
ASTS Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $9.87 | $13.4 | +36% |
| 2021 | $13.4 | $8.71 | -35% |
| 2022 | $8.71 | $3.97 | -54% |
| 2023 | $3.97 | $6.03 | +52% |
| 2024 | $6.03 | $22.9 | +280% |
| 2025 | $22.9 | $72.0 | +214% |
| 2026 YTD | $72.0 | $34.5 | -52% |
ASTS's yearly returns have swung widely, from +280% in 2024 to −54% in 2022. It's down 52% so far in 2026.