ADM
Archer-Daniels-Midland Company
ADM has lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
CELH
Celsius Holdings, Inc.
CELH has the edge over ADM overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and stronger valuation.
ADM Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Under pressure | |
| Healthy |
ADM's revenue, profitability and balance sheet are currently healthy, but its cash flow is under pressure.
CELH Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Stable | |
| Strong |
CELH's revenue, profitability and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its cash flow is stable.
ADM PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 11x | $54.56 | -23% |
| Forward | 12x | $70.97 | — |
| Current | 14x | $70.97 | — |
| Fair | 15x | $75.23 | +6% |
| Expensive | 22x | $113 | +59% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
ADM's PE is in its fair range at 14x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 12x next year's earnings, in its cheap range.
CELH PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 21x | $31.89 | — |
| Current | 35x | $31.89 | — |
| Cheap | 40x | $35.95 | +13% |
| Fair | 141x | $127 | +299% |
| Expensive | 650x | $585 | +1735% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CELH has the edge over ADM in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
ADM Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for ADM, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
CELH Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for CELH, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
ADM Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $5.82 | +13% |
| Q3 2026 | $5.14 | +106% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.66 | +58% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.24 | -21% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.23 | -39% |
| Q3 2025 | $2.49 | -29% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.31 | -54% |
| Q1 2025 | $2.84 | -50% |
| Q4 2024 | $3.65 | -43% |
ADM has the edge over CELH on earnings, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
CELH Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $1.53 | +70% |
| Q3 2026 | $0.90 | +718% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.24 | -37% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.43 | +30% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.25 | -44% |
| Q3 2025 | $0.11 | -85% |
| Q2 2025 | $0.38 | -62% |
| Q1 2025 | $0.33 | -64% |
| Q4 2024 | $0.45 | -42% |
CELH earned $0.90 per share over the past year, about eight times what it earned the year before.
ADM Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $22.3B | +9.6% |
| Q2 2026 | $22.7B | +7.2% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.5B | +1.6% |
| Q4 2025 | $18.6B | -14% |
| Q3 2025 | $20.4B | +2.2% |
| Q2 2025 | $21.2B | -4.9% |
| Q1 2025 | $20.2B | -7.7% |
| Q4 2024 | $21.5B | -6.4% |
ADM's revenue is recovering but still below its 2022 peak: $22.3B last quarter, up 9.6% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 4.5% | +3.7 points |
| Q2 2026 | 4.8% | +3.5 points |
| Q1 2026 | 1.9% | +0.1 points |
| Q4 2025 | 2.6% | -0.5 points |
| Q3 2025 | 0.7% | +0.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 1.3% | -1.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 1.8% | -2.3 points |
| Q4 2024 | 3.1% | -0.1 points |
ADM's operating margin was 4.5% last quarter, up 3.7 points from the same quarter a year ago.
CELH Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $847.2M | +17% |
| Q2 2026 | $817.9M | +11% |
| Q1 2026 | $782.6M | +138% |
| Q4 2025 | $721.6M | +117% |
| Q3 2025 | $725.1M | +173% |
| Q2 2025 | $739.3M | +84% |
| Q1 2025 | $329.3M | -7.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $332.2M | -4.4% |
CELH has the edge over ADM on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 20% | +31 points |
| Q2 2026 | 9.2% | -10 points |
| Q1 2026 | 18% | +2 points |
| Q4 2025 | 3.6% | +9.2 points |
| Q3 2025 | -11% | -9.8 points |
| Q2 2025 | 19% | -4.1 points |
| Q1 2025 | 16% | -7.6 points |
| Q4 2024 | -5.6% | -23 points |
CELH has the edge over ADM on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
ADM Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $182M | -88% |
| Q2 2026 | $877M | -78% |
| Q1 2026 | -$44M | +$589M |
| Q4 2025 | -$669M | -$499M |
| Q3 2025 | $1.5B | +65% |
| Q2 2025 | $4B | +3667% |
| Q1 2025 | -$633M | -270% |
| Q4 2024 | -$170M | -108% |
ADM still generates free cash flow, though less than at its 2025 peak: $346M over the past year.
CELH Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $127.7M | -60% |
| Q2 2026 | $205.5M | +479% |
| Q1 2026 | $65.8M | -32% |
| Q4 2025 | -$130M | -285% |
| Q3 2025 | $321.5M | +3599% |
| Q2 2025 | $35.5M | +17% |
| Q1 2025 | $96.4M | -26% |
| Q4 2024 | $70.3M | +16394% |
CELH has the edge over ADM on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
ADM Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.2% | -1M shares |
| 1 year | 0% | -- |
| 3 years | -10% | -56M shares |
| 5 years | -14% | -82M shares |
| Available history | -14% | -81M shares |
ADM has 484M diluted shares, about the same as a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q3 2024 | — |
| Q2 2024 | $1B |
| Q1 2024 | $1.3B |
CELH Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.8% | -2M shares |
| 1 year | -1.1% | -2.9M shares |
| 3 years | +7.4% | +17.6M shares |
| 5 years | +8.3% | +19.5M shares |
| Available history | +32% | +62.4M shares |
CELH has the edge over ADM on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $300,000 |
| Q2 2026 | $1M |
| Q1 2026 | $8.8M |
| Q4 2025 | $2.5M |
| Q3 2025 | $448,000 |
| Q2 2025 | $879,000 |
| Q1 2025 | $1.9M |
| Q4 2024 | $603,000 |
CELH spent $13M buying back its own shares over the past year, about three times what it spent the year before.
ADM Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 1.9x | Healthy |
| Q2 2026 | 2.1x | Moderate |
| Q1 2026 | 3.5x | Elevated |
| Q4 2025 | 3.0x | Elevated |
| Q3 2025 | 2.5x | Moderate |
| Q2 2025 | 3.2x | Elevated |
| Q1 2025 | 3.6x | Elevated |
| Q4 2024 | 2.8x | Moderate |
ADM's net debt is about 1.9 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 2.5 years a year ago.
CELH Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.1x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | 0.2x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q4 2025 | 1.6x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | 1.4x | Healthy |
| Q1 2025 | -7.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -5.5x | Net Cash |
CELH has the edge over ADM on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
ADM Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 40.3 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 7.6 | Oversold |
ADM's weekly RSI is 40 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 8 (oversold).
CELH Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 51.3 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 56.8 | Neutral |
CELH's weekly RSI is 51 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 57 (neutral).
ADM PE vs Consumer Defensive Sector
| Metric | ADM | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 14x | 19x | 29% below |
| PE % | 40 | 18 | 22 pts above |
ADM has the edge over CELH on valuation relative to its sector.
CELH PE vs Consumer Defensive Sector
| Metric | CELH | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 35x | 19x | 82% above |
| PE % | 11 | 18 | 7 pts below |
CELH is trading at 35x earnings, a 82% premium to the Consumer Defensive sector's median of 19x.
ADM Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $77.8 | 8.7% below |
| 20 week MA | $80.3 | 12% below |
| 50 week MA | $73.9 | 4% below |
| 100 week MA | $63.7 | 11% above |
| 200 week MA | $66.0 | 7.5% above |
ADM has slipped below its 8-, 20- and 50-week averages, though it's still 7.5% above its 200-week average.
CELH Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $29.1 | 9.4% above |
| 20 week MA | $29.6 | 7.8% above |
| 50 week MA | $36.1 | 12% below |
| 100 week MA | $38.8 | 18% below |
| 200 week MA | $44.6 | 29% below |
CELH has bounced recently, but its long-term trend is still down: it's above its 8- and 20-week averages, but 29% below its 200-week average.
ADM Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $46.3 | $49.4 | +6.8% |
| 2021 | $49.4 | $65.4 | +32% |
| 2022 | $65.4 | $94.6 | +45% |
| 2023 | $94.6 | $72.2 | -24% |
| 2024 | $72.2 | $50.6 | -30% |
| 2025 | $50.6 | $57.9 | +14% |
| 2026 YTD | $57.9 | $71.0 | +23% |
ADM has the edge over CELH on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
CELH Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $1.58 | $14.7 | +832% |
| 2021 | $14.7 | $24.9 | +69% |
| 2022 | $24.9 | $35.6 | +43% |
| 2023 | $35.6 | $54.5 | +53% |
| 2024 | $54.5 | $26.5 | -51% |
| 2025 | $26.5 | $45.6 | +72% |
| 2026 YTD | $45.6 | $31.9 | -30% |
CELH's yearly returns have swung widely, from +832% in 2020 to −51% in 2024. It's down 30% so far in 2026.