ADM
Archer-Daniels-Midland Company
ADM's fundamentals are mixed: earnings per share more than doubled, but free cash flow fell 93%. At 14x earnings, it's trading in line with its usual 15x. Analysts expect strong earnings growth, though they disagree widely on how much.
ADM Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Under pressure | |
| Healthy |
ADM's revenue, profitability and balance sheet are currently healthy, but its cash flow is under pressure.
ADM PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 11x | $54.56 | -23% |
| Forward | 12x | $70.97 | — |
| Current | 14x | $70.97 | — |
| Fair | 15x | $75.23 | +6% |
| Expensive | 22x | $113 | +59% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
ADM's PE is in its fair range at 14x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 12x next year's earnings, in its cheap range.
ADM Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for ADM, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
ADM Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $5.82 | +13% |
| Q3 2026 | $5.14 | +106% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.66 | +58% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.24 | -21% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.23 | -39% |
| Q3 2025 | $2.49 | -29% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.31 | -54% |
| Q1 2025 | $2.84 | -50% |
| Q4 2024 | $3.65 | -43% |
ADM's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $5.14 over the past year, against $7.97 in early 2023.
ADM Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $22.3B | +9.6% |
| Q2 2026 | $22.7B | +7.2% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.5B | +1.6% |
| Q4 2025 | $18.6B | -14% |
| Q3 2025 | $20.4B | +2.2% |
| Q2 2025 | $21.2B | -4.9% |
| Q1 2025 | $20.2B | -7.7% |
| Q4 2024 | $21.5B | -6.4% |
ADM's revenue is recovering but still below its 2022 peak: $22.3B last quarter, up 9.6% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 4.5% | +3.7 points |
| Q2 2026 | 4.8% | +3.5 points |
| Q1 2026 | 1.9% | +0.1 points |
| Q4 2025 | 2.6% | -0.5 points |
| Q3 2025 | 0.7% | +0.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 1.3% | -1.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 1.8% | -2.3 points |
| Q4 2024 | 3.1% | -0.1 points |
ADM's operating margin was 4.5% last quarter, up 3.7 points from the same quarter a year ago.
ADM Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $182M | -88% |
| Q2 2026 | $877M | -78% |
| Q1 2026 | -$44M | +$589M |
| Q4 2025 | -$669M | -$499M |
| Q3 2025 | $1.5B | +65% |
| Q2 2025 | $4B | +3667% |
| Q1 2025 | -$633M | -270% |
| Q4 2024 | -$170M | -108% |
ADM still generates free cash flow, though less than at its 2025 peak: $346M over the past year.
ADM Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.2% | -1M shares |
| 1 year | 0% | -- |
| 3 years | -10% | -56M shares |
| 5 years | -14% | -82M shares |
| Available history | -14% | -81M shares |
ADM has 484M diluted shares, about the same as a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q3 2024 | — |
| Q2 2024 | $1B |
| Q1 2024 | $1.3B |
ADM Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 1.9x | Healthy |
| Q2 2026 | 2.1x | Moderate |
| Q1 2026 | 3.5x | Elevated |
| Q4 2025 | 3.0x | Elevated |
| Q3 2025 | 2.5x | Moderate |
| Q2 2025 | 3.2x | Elevated |
| Q1 2025 | 3.6x | Elevated |
| Q4 2024 | 2.8x | Moderate |
ADM's net debt is about 1.9 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 2.5 years a year ago.
ADM Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 40.3 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 7.6 | Oversold |
ADM's weekly RSI is 40 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 8 (oversold).
ADM PE vs Consumer Defensive Sector
| Metric | ADM | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 14x | 19x | 29% below |
| PE % | 40 | 18 | 22 pts above |
ADM is trading at 14x earnings, a 29% discount to the Consumer Defensive sector's median of 19x.
ADM Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $77.8 | 8.7% below |
| 20 week MA | $80.3 | 12% below |
| 50 week MA | $73.9 | 4% below |
| 100 week MA | $63.7 | 11% above |
| 200 week MA | $66.0 | 7.5% above |
ADM has slipped below its 8-, 20- and 50-week averages, though it's still 7.5% above its 200-week average.
ADM Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $46.3 | $49.4 | +6.8% |
| 2021 | $49.4 | $65.4 | +32% |
| 2022 | $65.4 | $94.6 | +45% |
| 2023 | $94.6 | $72.2 | -24% |
| 2024 | $72.2 | $50.6 | -30% |
| 2025 | $50.6 | $57.9 | +14% |
| 2026 YTD | $57.9 | $71.0 | +23% |
ADM has finished higher in four of the last six years. It's up 23% so far in 2026.