ACAD
ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc.
ACAD offers stronger valuation, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
LLY
Eli Lilly and Company
LLY has the edge over ACAD overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and stronger modeled upside.
ACAD Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Strong |
ACAD's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
LLY Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Healthy |
LLY's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
ACAD PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current | 8.6x | $18.14 | — |
| Cheap | 9.8x | $20.70 | +14% |
| Fair | 16x | $33.30 | +84% |
| Forward | 17x | $18.14 | — |
| Expensive | 23x | $47.72 | +163% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
ACAD has the edge over LLY in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
LLY PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 27x | $845 | -41% |
| Forward | 30x | $1,427 | — |
| Current | 46x | $1,427 | — |
| Fair | 48x | $1,466 | +2.7% |
| Expensive | 85x | $2,612 | +83% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
LLY's PE is in its fair range at 46x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 30x next year's earnings, in its cheap range.
ACAD Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly deteriorating | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect strong earnings and revenue growth for ACAD, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
LLY Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
LLY has the edge over ACAD on the outlook, with more favorable valuation expectations.
ACAD Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $1.05 | -50% |
| Q3 2026 | $2.12 | +37% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.23 | +68% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.21 | +61% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.30 | +69% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.55 | +99% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.33 | +639% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.37 | +$1.38 |
| Q4 2024 | $1.36 | +$1.74 |
ACAD's earnings per share have climbed steadily: $2.12 over the past year, up 37% from the year before, and higher year over year for 15 quarters in a row.
LLY Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $46.82 | +52% |
| Q3 2026 | $30.81 | +51% |
| Q2 2026 | $29.80 | +95% |
| Q1 2026 | $28.15 | +129% |
| Q4 2025 | $22.95 | +96% |
| Q3 2025 | $20.44 | +121% |
| Q2 2025 | $15.30 | +88% |
| Q1 2025 | $12.29 | +81% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.71 | +102% |
LLY's earnings per share have climbed steadily: $30.81 over the past year, up 51% from the year before, and higher year over year for 11 quarters in a row.
ACAD Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $342.3M | +23% |
| Q2 2026 | $308M | +16% |
| Q1 2026 | $268.1M | +9.7% |
| Q4 2025 | $284M | +9.4% |
| Q3 2025 | $278.6M | +11% |
| Q2 2025 | $264.6M | +9.3% |
| Q1 2025 | $244.3M | +19% |
| Q4 2024 | $259.6M | +12% |
ACAD's revenue has grown year over year for 16 quarters in a row: $342M last quarter, up 23% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 21% | +8.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 12% | 0 points |
| Q1 2026 | -1.7% | -9.6 points |
| Q4 2025 | 6.1% | -53 points |
| Q3 2025 | 13% | +0.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 12% | -0.3 points |
| Q1 2025 | 7.9% | +0.5 points |
| Q4 2024 | 59% | +44 points |
ACAD's operating margin was 21% last quarter, up 8.1 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the top of its range since 2019.
LLY Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $24.4B | +39% |
| Q2 2026 | $23B | +48% |
| Q1 2026 | $19.8B | +56% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.3B | +43% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.6B | +54% |
| Q2 2025 | $15.6B | +38% |
| Q1 2025 | $12.7B | +45% |
| Q4 2024 | $13.5B | +45% |
LLY has the edge over ACAD on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 34% | -6.6 points |
| Q2 2026 | 40% | -3.3 points |
| Q1 2026 | 45% | +18 points |
| Q4 2025 | 43% | +5.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 41% | +27 points |
| Q2 2025 | 44% | +12 points |
| Q1 2025 | 27% | -1.8 points |
| Q4 2024 | 37% | +10 points |
LLY has the edge over ACAD on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
ACAD Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $10.3M | -86% |
| Q1 2026 | $28.8M | +42% |
| Q4 2025 | -$52.7M | -232% |
| Q1 2025 | $20.3M | -30% |
| Q4 2024 | $39.9M | -53% |
| Q2 2024 | $25M | +205% |
| Q1 2024 | $29.1M | +$47M |
| Q4 2023 | $85.4M | +$109.2M |
ACAD has burned cash in most quarters: $82M over the past year, down 48% from the year before.
LLY Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $8.2B | +22% |
| Q2 2026 | $7.8B | +458% |
| Q1 2026 | $3B | +1826% |
| Q4 2025 | $677.9M | -31% |
| Q3 2025 | $6.7B | +186% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.4B | +476% |
| Q1 2025 | $156.1M | -13% |
| Q4 2024 | $977.8M | +$2.4B |
LLY has the edge over ACAD on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
ACAD Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +1.5% | +2.6M shares |
| 1 year | +2.8% | +4.8M shares |
| 3 years | +8.8% | +14.2M shares |
| 5 years | +13% | +20.1M shares |
ACAD has 175M diluted shares, up 2.8% from a year ago.
LLY Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | 0% | -300K shares |
| 1 year | -0.6% | -5.4M shares |
| 3 years | -0.7% | -6.4M shares |
| 5 years | -1.9% | -17.4M shares |
| Available history | -4.5% | -42.3M shares |
LLY has the edge over ACAD on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $377M |
| Q2 2026 | $1.6B |
| Q1 2026 | $2.4B |
| Q4 2025 | $1.5B |
| Q3 2025 | $708.1M |
| Q2 2025 | $692.2M |
| Q1 2025 | $1.2B |
| Q4 2024 | $2.1B |
LLY spent $5.8B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 26% from the year before.
ACAD Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -2.4x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -3.9x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -3.0x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -1.5x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -1.0x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -1.0x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.9x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -1.3x | Net Cash |
ACAD has the edge over LLY on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
LLY Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 1.2x | Healthy |
| Q2 2026 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q1 2026 | 1.2x | Healthy |
| Q4 2025 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q2 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q1 2025 | 2.3x | Moderate |
| Q4 2024 | 2.1x | Moderate |
LLY's net debt is about 1.2 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), about the same as a year ago.
ACAD Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 34.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 18.4 | Oversold |
ACAD's weekly RSI is 35 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 18 (oversold).
LLY Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 68.3 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 84.1 | Overbought |
LLY's weekly RSI is 68 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 84 (overbought).
ACAD PE vs Healthcare Sector
| Metric | ACAD | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 8.6x | 26x | 67% below |
| PE % | 0 | 29 | 29 pts below |
ACAD has the edge over LLY on valuation relative to its sector.
LLY PE vs Healthcare Sector
| Metric | LLY | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 46x | 26x | 79% above |
| PE % | 48 | 29 | 19 pts above |
LLY is trading at 46x earnings, a 79% premium to the Healthcare sector's median of 26x.
ACAD Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $19.9 | 8.8% below |
| 20 week MA | $24.4 | 26% below |
| 50 week MA | $23.8 | 24% below |
| 100 week MA | $22.2 | 18% below |
| 200 week MA | $21.6 | 16% below |
ACAD is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 16% below its 200-week average.
LLY Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $1,279.4 | 12% above |
| 20 week MA | $1,218.8 | 17% above |
| 50 week MA | $1,102.2 | 29% above |
| 100 week MA | $954.1 | 50% above |
| 200 week MA | $797.5 | 79% above |
LLY has the edge over ACAD on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
ACAD Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $44.0 | $55.0 | +25% |
| 2021 | $55.0 | $24.3 | -56% |
| 2022 | $24.3 | $15.5 | -36% |
| 2023 | $15.5 | $31.3 | +102% |
| 2024 | $31.3 | $17.0 | -46% |
| 2025 | $17.0 | $27.6 | +63% |
| 2026 YTD | $27.6 | $18.1 | -34% |
ACAD's yearly returns have swung widely, from +102% in 2023 to −56% in 2021. It's down 34% so far in 2026.
LLY Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $131.5 | $166.7 | +27% |
| 2021 | $166.7 | $273.1 | +64% |
| 2022 | $273.1 | $367.9 | +35% |
| 2023 | $367.9 | $582.9 | +58% |
| 2024 | $582.9 | $783.2 | +34% |
| 2025 | $783.2 | $1,077.8 | +38% |
| 2026 YTD | $1,077.8 | $1,427.3 | +32% |
LLY has the edge over ACAD on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.