AAPL

Apple Inc.

59
Fundamentals75/ 100
Valuation33/ 100
Upside potential54/ 100
Risk potential15/ 100

AAPL has the edge over FOUR overall, supported by lower modeled downside and stronger fundamentals.

FOUR

Shift4 Payments, Inc.

55
Fundamentals59/ 100
Valuation50/ 100
Upside potential62/ 100
Risk potential34/ 100

FOUR offers stronger valuation, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.

AAPL Fundamentals

MetricStatus
Healthy
Strong
Strong
Strong

AAPL's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.

FOUR Fundamentals

MetricStatus
Healthy
Healthy
Healthy
Weak

FOUR's revenue, profitability and cash flow are currently healthy, but its balance sheet is weak.

AAPL PE Valuation

CHEAPFAIREXPENSIVE11x22x33x44x
CHEAPFAIREXPENSIVE11x22x33x44x
LevelPEPriceVs current
Cheap26x$230-35%
Fair31x$279-21%
Expensive37x$328-7.5%
Forward38x$355—
Current40x$355—

Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.

AAPL's PE is in its expensive range at 40x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 38x next year's earnings.

FOUR PE Valuation

FOUR has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.

AAPL Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Stable
Growth
Growth
Weakening
Moderate
Moderate

Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for AAPL, but weaker profitability.

FOUR Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
--
Strong growth
Growth
Stable
Moderate
Low

FOUR has the edge over AAPL on the outlook, with more favorable profitability expectations.

AAPL Risk to reward

ScenarioChangePrice
Upside+17%$416.94
Downside-15%$301.30

Calculated from the latest close: $354.88 on Nov 12.

AAPL trails FOUR on modeled risk to reward, with less potential upside relative to its potential downside.

FOUR Risk to reward

ScenarioChangePrice
Upside+55%$64.38
Downside-34%$27.23

Calculated from the latest close: $41.52 on Nov 12.

FOUR has a better modeled risk to reward balance than AAPL, with more potential upside relative to its potential downside.

AAPL Earnings Per Share

Q4 2023: $6.43Q1 2024: $6.44Q2 2024: $6.58Q3 2024: $6.08Q4 2024: $6.30Q1 2025: $6.42Q2 2025: $6.59Q3 2025: $7.46Q4 2025: $7.90Q1 2026: $8.26Q2 2026: $8.71Q3 2026: $8.98Forward: $9.28
Q4 2023: $6.43Q1 2024: $6.44Q2 2024: $6.58Q3 2024: $6.08Q4 2024: $6.30Q1 2025: $6.42Q2 2025: $6.59Q3 2025: $7.46Q4 2025: $7.90Q1 2026: $8.26Q2 2026: $8.71Q3 2026: $8.98Forward: $9.28
QuarterTTM EPSYoY
Forward$9.28+3.3%
Q3 2026$8.98+20%
Q2 2026$8.71+32%
Q1 2026$8.26+29%
Q4 2025$7.90+25%
Q3 2025$7.46+23%
Q2 2025$6.59+0.2%
Q1 2025$6.42-0.3%
Q4 2024$6.30-2%

AAPL has the stronger earnings trend. Trailing diluted EPS is up 20% for AAPL versus FOUR up 5%.

FOUR Earnings Per Share

Q4 2023: $1.36Q1 2024: $1.48Q2 2024: $1.64Q3 2024: $1.69Forward: $7.29
Q4 2023: $1.36Q1 2024: $1.48Q2 2024: $1.64Q3 2024: $1.69Forward: $7.29
QuarterTTM EPSYoY
Forward$7.29+331%
Q3 2024$1.69+5%
Q2 2024$1.64+3.1%
Q1 2024$1.48+14%
Q4 2023$1.36+37%
Q3 2023$1.61+360%
Q2 2023$1.59+$1.94
Q1 2023$1.30+$1.73
Q4 2022$0.99+$1.91

FOUR's earnings per share have climbed steadily: $1.69 over the past year, up 5% from the year before, and higher year over year every quarter since early 2022.

AAPL Quarterly Revenue

Q4 2023: $120BQ1 2024: $90.8BQ2 2024: $85.8BQ3 2024: $94.9BQ4 2024: $124BQ1 2025: $95.4BQ2 2025: $94BQ3 2025: $102BQ4 2025: $144BQ1 2026: $111BQ2 2026: $109BQ3 2026: $114B
Q4 2023: $120BQ1 2024: $90.8BQ2 2024: $85.8BQ3 2024: $94.9BQ4 2024: $124BQ1 2025: $95.4BQ2 2025: $94BQ3 2025: $102BQ4 2025: $144BQ1 2026: $111BQ2 2026: $109BQ3 2026: $114B
QuarterRevenueYoY
Q3 2026$114.5B+12%
Q2 2026$109.4B+16%
Q1 2026$111.2B+17%
Q4 2025$143.8B+16%
Q3 2025$102.5B+7.9%
Q2 2025$94B+9.6%
Q1 2025$95.4B+5.1%
Q4 2024$124.3B+4%

AAPL's revenue has grown year over year for 10 quarters in a row: $114B last quarter, up 12% from the same quarter a year ago.

FOUR Quarterly Revenue

Q4 2023: $705MQ1 2024: $707MQ2 2024: $827MQ3 2024: $909MQ4 2024: $887MQ1 2025: $848MQ2 2025: $966MQ3 2025: $1.2BQ4 2025: $1.2BQ1 2026: $1.1BQ2 2026: $1.3BQ3 2026: $1.3B
Q4 2023: $705MQ1 2024: $707MQ2 2024: $827MQ3 2024: $909MQ4 2024: $887MQ1 2025: $848MQ2 2025: $966MQ3 2025: $1.2BQ4 2025: $1.2BQ1 2026: $1.1BQ2 2026: $1.3BQ3 2026: $1.3B
QuarterRevenueYoY
Q3 2026$1.3B+12%
Q2 2026$1.3B+34%
Q1 2026$1.1B+32%
Q4 2025$1.2B+34%
Q3 2025$1.2B+29%
Q2 2025$966.2M+17%
Q1 2025$848.3M+20%
Q4 2024$887M+26%

FOUR has the edge over AAPL on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.

AAPL Free Cash Flow

Q4 2023: $37.5BQ1 2024: $20.7BQ2 2024: $26.7BQ3 2024: $23.9BQ4 2024: $27BQ1 2025: $20.9BQ2 2025: $24.4BQ3 2025: $26.5BQ4 2025: $51.6BQ1 2026: $26.7BQ2 2026: $31.9BQ3 2026: $25.9B
Q4 2023: $37.5BQ1 2024: $20.7BQ2 2024: $26.7BQ3 2024: $23.9BQ4 2024: $27BQ1 2025: $20.9BQ2 2025: $24.4BQ3 2025: $26.5BQ4 2025: $51.6BQ1 2026: $26.7BQ2 2026: $31.9BQ3 2026: $25.9B
QuarterFree cash flowYoY
Q3 2026$25.9B-2.4%
Q2 2026$31.9B+31%
Q1 2026$26.7B+28%
Q4 2025$51.6B+91%
Q3 2025$26.5B+11%
Q2 2025$24.4B-8.6%
Q1 2025$20.9B+0.9%
Q4 2024$27B-28%

AAPL's free cash flow has been positive every quarter for seven years: $136B over the past year, up 38% from the year before.

FOUR Free Cash Flow

Q4 2023: $73MQ1 2024: $89MQ2 2024: $75MQ3 2024: $264MQ4 2024: $144MQ1 2025: $45MQ2 2025: $93MQ3 2025: $273MQ4 2025: $223MQ1 2026: $128MQ2 2026: $57MQ3 2026: $216M
Q4 2023: $73MQ1 2024: $89MQ2 2024: $75MQ3 2024: $264MQ4 2024: $144MQ1 2025: $45MQ2 2025: $93MQ3 2025: $273MQ4 2025: $223MQ1 2026: $128MQ2 2026: $57MQ3 2026: $216M
QuarterFree cash flowYoY
Q3 2026$216M-21%
Q2 2026$57M-39%
Q1 2026$128M+186%
Q4 2025$222.5M+55%
Q3 2025$272.5M+3.4%
Q2 2025$93M+24%
Q1 2025$44.8M-50%
Q4 2024$143.8M+97%

FOUR has the edge over AAPL on cash flow, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.

AAPL Total Shares

Q4 2023: 15.6BQ1 2024: 15.5BQ2 2024: 15.3BQ3 2024: 15.4BQ4 2024: 15.2BQ1 2025: 15.1BQ2 2025: 14.9BQ3 2025: 15BQ4 2025: 14.8BQ1 2026: 14.7BQ2 2026: 14.7BQ3 2026: 14.7B
Q4 2023: 15.6BQ1 2024: 15.5BQ2 2024: 15.3BQ3 2024: 15.4BQ4 2024: 15.2BQ1 2025: 15.1BQ2 2025: 14.9BQ3 2025: 15BQ4 2025: 14.8BQ1 2026: 14.7BQ2 2026: 14.7BQ3 2026: 14.7B
PeriodChange %Net change
Quarterly0%+5.6M shares
1 year-1.9%-284M shares
3 years-6.9%-1.1B shares
5 years-13%-2.1B shares
Available history-17%-3.1B shares

AAPL has 14.7B diluted shares, down 1.9% from a year ago, with $86.4B in buybacks over the past year.

FOUR Total Shares

Q4 2023: 65MQ1 2024: 68MQ2 2024: 67MQ3 2024: 89MQ1 2025: 91MQ2 2025: 89MQ3 2025: 91MQ1 2026: 79MQ2 2026: 79MQ3 2026: 75M
Q4 2023: 65MQ1 2024: 68MQ2 2024: 67MQ3 2024: 89MQ1 2025: 91MQ2 2025: 89MQ3 2025: 91MQ1 2026: 79MQ2 2026: 79MQ3 2026: 75M
PeriodChange %Net change
Quarterly-5.1%-4M shares
1 year-16%-14.3M shares
3 years-11%-9.5M shares
5 years-7.4%-6M shares

FOUR has the edge over AAPL on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.

AAPL Net Leverage

Q4 2023: 0.5xQ1 2024: 0.6xQ2 2024: 0.6xQ3 2024: 0.6xQ4 2024: 0.5xQ1 2025: 0.5xQ2 2025: 0.5xQ3 2025: 0.4xQ4 2025: 0.3xQ1 2026: 0.2xQ2 2026: 0.3xQ3 2026: 0.3x
Q4 2023: 0.5xQ1 2024: 0.6xQ2 2024: 0.6xQ3 2024: 0.6xQ4 2024: 0.5xQ1 2025: 0.5xQ2 2025: 0.5xQ3 2025: 0.4xQ4 2025: 0.3xQ1 2026: 0.2xQ2 2026: 0.3xQ3 2026: 0.3x
QuarterNet LeverageStatus
Q3 20260.3xVery low
Q2 20260.3xVery low
Q1 20260.2xVery low
Q4 20250.3xVery low
Q3 20250.4xVery low
Q2 20250.5xVery low
Q1 20250.5xVery low
Q4 20240.5xVery low

AAPL has the edge over FOUR on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.

FOUR Net Leverage

Q4 2023: 3.6xQ1 2024: 3.2xQ2 2024: 3.6xQ3 2024: 6.8xQ4 2024: 5.6xQ1 2025: 5.5xQ2 2025: 2.0xQ3 2025: 4.6xQ4 2025: 4.5xQ1 2026: 4.7xQ2 2026: 4.6xQ3 2026: 4.5x
Q4 2023: 3.6xQ1 2024: 3.2xQ2 2024: 3.6xQ3 2024: 6.8xQ4 2024: 5.6xQ1 2025: 5.5xQ2 2025: 2.0xQ3 2025: 4.6xQ4 2025: 4.5xQ1 2026: 4.7xQ2 2026: 4.6xQ3 2026: 4.5x
QuarterNet LeverageStatus
Q3 20264.5xHigh
Q2 20264.6xHigh
Q1 20264.7xHigh
Q4 20254.5xHigh
Q3 20254.6xHigh
Q2 20252.0xModerate
Q1 20255.5xHigh
Q4 20245.6xHigh

FOUR's net debt is about 4.5 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), about the same as a year ago.

AAPL Weekly Momentum

MetricValueStatus
RSI68.1Neutral
Stochastic85.0Overbought

AAPL's weekly RSI is 68 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 85 (overbought).

FOUR Weekly Momentum

MetricValueStatus
RSI46.1Neutral
Stochastic33.7Neutral

FOUR's weekly RSI is 46 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 34 (neutral).

AAPL PE vs Technology Sector

MetricAAPLSector medianRelative
PE40x28x42% above
PE %963561 pts above

AAPL is trading at 40x earnings, a 42% premium to the Technology sector's median of 28x.

FOUR PE vs Technology Sector

MetricFOURSector medianRelative
PEN/A28x—

FOUR has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.

AAPL Weekly Moving Averages

Moving averageMA priceRelative
8 week MA$343.13.4% above
20 week MA$329.07.9% above
50 week MA$295.620% above
100 week MA$262.435% above
200 week MA$226.357% above

AAPL has the edge over FOUR on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.

FOUR Weekly Moving Averages

Moving averageMA priceRelative
8 week MA$39.84.3% above
20 week MA$44.05.7% below
50 week MA$48.514% below
100 week MA$69.740% below
200 week MA$70.341% below

FOUR has bounced recently, but its long-term trend is still down: it's above its 8-week average, but 41% below its 200-week average.

AAPL Yearly ROI

YearStart priceEnd priceROI
2020$72.5$132.0+82%
2021$132.0$176.3+34%
2022$176.3$131.9-25%
2023$131.9$192.5+46%
2024$192.5$255.6+33%
2025$255.6$273.4+7%
2026 YTD$273.4$354.9+30%

AAPL has the edge over FOUR on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.

FOUR Yearly ROI

YearStart priceEnd priceROI
2020$33.5$71.8+114%
2021$71.8$59.2-18%
2022$59.2$54.1-8.6%
2023$54.1$74.3+38%
2024$74.3$104.7+41%
2025$104.7$65.2-38%
2026 YTD$65.2$41.5-36%

FOUR has finished lower in three of the last six years. It's down 36% so far in 2026.

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