AAOI
Applied Optoelectronics, Inc.
AAOI has a slight edge over YMM overall, supported by stronger modeled upside and stronger fundamentals.
YMM
Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd.
YMM has lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
AAOI Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Under pressure | |
| Weak | |
| Unavailable |
AAOI's revenue is currently strong, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
YMM Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
YMM's profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are currently strong, and its revenue is stable.
AAOI PE Valuation
AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year. If it returns to profit as analysts expect, today's price would be 18x next year's earnings.
YMM PE Valuation
YMM has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
AAOI Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Returning to profit | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect AAOI to return to profit, with revenue growing. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
YMM Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for YMM, with profitability improving.
AAOI Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $2.98 | — |
| Q3 2026 | -$0.42 | +$3.02 |
| Q2 2026 | -$0.77 | +$2.81 |
| Q1 2026 | -$0.65 | +$3.43 |
| Q4 2025 | -$0.64 | +$3.86 |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.44 | -$1.41 |
| Q2 2025 | -$3.58 | -$1.70 |
| Q1 2025 | -$4.08 | -$2.29 |
| Q4 2024 | -$4.50 | -$2.75 |
YMM has the stronger earnings trend. Trailing diluted EPS is down 112% for AAOI versus YMM up 60%.
YMM Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $0.08 | +60% |
| Q1 2025 | $0.07 | +40% |
| Q4 2024 | $0.06 | +50% |
| Q3 2024 | $0.06 | +50% |
| Q2 2024 | $0.05 | +67% |
| Q1 2024 | $0.05 | +150% |
| Q4 2023 | $0.04 | +300% |
| Q3 2023 | $0.04 | +$0.06 |
YMM's earnings per share have climbed steadily: $0.08 over the past year, up 60% from the year before, and higher year over year for 11 quarters in a row.
AAOI Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $269.9M | +127% |
| Q2 2026 | $191.9M | +86% |
| Q1 2026 | $151.1M | +51% |
| Q4 2025 | $134.3M | +34% |
| Q3 2025 | $118.6M | +82% |
| Q2 2025 | $103M | +138% |
| Q1 2025 | $99.9M | +146% |
| Q4 2024 | $100.3M | +66% |
AAOI has the edge over YMM on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5% | +15 points |
| Q2 2026 | -13% | +2.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | -8.6% | +0.3 points |
| Q4 2025 | -8.6% | -2.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | -15% | +10 points |
| Q2 2025 | -16% | +45 points |
| Q1 2025 | -8.9% | +44 points |
| Q4 2024 | -6.5% | +1 points |
AAOI's operating margin was −0.5% last quarter, up 15 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the top of its range since 2019.
YMM Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $506M | +4.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $427.5M | +5.5% |
| Q4 2025 | $479.1M | +0.6% |
| Q3 2025 | $504M | +11% |
| Q2 2025 | $486.1M | +17% |
| Q1 2025 | $405.2M | +19% |
| Q4 2024 | $476.4M | +32% |
| Q3 2024 | $454.9M | +34% |
YMM's revenue has grown year over year every quarter since late 2020: $506M last quarter, up 4.1% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 44% | +8.7 points |
| Q1 2026 | 35% | -9.2 points |
| Q4 2025 | 32% | +5.9 points |
| Q3 2025 | 23% | -2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 35% | +15 points |
| Q1 2025 | 45% | +31 points |
| Q4 2024 | 26% | +16 points |
| Q3 2024 | 25% | +14 points |
YMM has the edge over AAOI on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
AAOI Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$369.9M | -$291.2M |
| Q2 2026 | -$265.3M | -$174.4M |
| Q1 2026 | -$143.6M | -$64.3M |
| Q4 2025 | -$104.6M | -$51.6M |
| Q3 2025 | -$78.7M | -$58M |
| Q2 2025 | -$91M | -$86M |
| Q1 2025 | -$79.3M | -$45.1M |
| Q4 2024 | -$53M | -$48.4M |
AAOI has burned cash in almost every quarter: −$883M over the past year, against −$302M the year before.
YMM Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $322.7M | +$322.7M |
| Q1 2026 | $234.4M | +$234.4M |
| Q4 2025 | $0 | $0 |
| Q3 2025 | $0 | $0 |
| Q2 2025 | $0 | $0 |
| Q1 2025 | $0 | $0 |
| Q4 2024 | $0 | $0 |
| Q3 2024 | $0 | $0 |
YMM has the edge over AAOI on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
AAOI Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +7.7% | +6.3M shares |
| 1 year | +39% | +24.5M shares |
| 3 years | +168% | +55.1M shares |
| 5 years | +224% | +60.7M shares |
| Available history | +340% | +67.9M shares |
AAOI has 88M diluted shares, up 39% from a year ago.
YMM Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.3% | -3.2M shares |
| 1 year | -0.7% | -7M shares |
| 3 years | -2.5% | -26.7M shares |
| 5 years | -5.2% | -57.3M shares |
| Available history | -5.2% | -57.3M shares |
YMM has the edge over AAOI on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q3 2024 | — |
YMM hasn't bought back shares in the past year.
AAOI Net Leverage
AAOI's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
YMM Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | -1.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -1.5x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -1.3x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -1.3x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -1.1x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -2.4x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -2.3x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2024 | -2.3x | Net Cash |
YMM has more cash than debt.
AAOI Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 35.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 4.8 | Oversold |
AAOI's weekly RSI is 35 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 5 (oversold).
YMM Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 47.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 41.8 | Neutral |
YMM's weekly RSI is 47 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 42 (neutral).
AAOI PE vs Technology Sector
AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
YMM PE vs Technology Sector
| Metric | YMM | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | N/A | 28x | — |
YMM has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
AAOI Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $80.2 | 34% below |
| 20 week MA | $100.6 | 47% below |
| 50 week MA | $100.3 | 47% below |
| 100 week MA | $62.3 | 15% below |
| 200 week MA | $36.9 | 43% above |
AAOI has fallen below most of its moving averages, though it's still 43% above its 200-week average.
YMM Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $8.49 | 0% above |
| 20 week MA | $8.69 | 2.3% below |
| 50 week MA | $9.06 | 6.3% below |
| 100 week MA | $10.5 | 19% below |
| 200 week MA | $9.02 | 5.9% below |
YMM is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 5.9% below its 200-week average.
AAOI Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $11.5 | $8.77 | -24% |
| 2021 | $8.77 | $5.64 | -36% |
| 2022 | $5.64 | $1.95 | -65% |
| 2023 | $1.95 | $19.3 | +891% |
| 2024 | $19.3 | $37.7 | +95% |
| 2025 | $37.7 | $37.2 | -1.5% |
| 2026 YTD | $37.2 | $52.9 | +42% |
AAOI has the edge over YMM on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
YMM Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | $19.7 | $8.30 | -58% |
| 2022 | $8.30 | $8.14 | -1.9% |
| 2023 | $8.14 | $7.01 | -14% |
| 2024 | $7.01 | $11.0 | +56% |
| 2025 | $11.0 | $11.2 | +1.8% |
| 2026 YTD | $11.2 | $8.49 | -24% |
YMM has finished lower in three of the last five years. It's down 24% so far in 2026.