AAOI
Applied Optoelectronics, Inc.
AAOI has the edge over VRRM overall, supported by stronger modeled upside and stronger fundamentals.
VRRM
Verra Mobility Corporation
VRRM offers stronger valuation, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
AAOI Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Under pressure | |
| Weak | |
| Unavailable |
AAOI's revenue is currently strong, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
VRRM Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Under pressure | |
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Under pressure |
VRRM's profitability and cash flow are currently healthy, but its revenue and balance sheet are under pressure.
AAOI PE Valuation
AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year. If it returns to profit as analysts expect, today's price would be 18x next year's earnings.
VRRM PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 2.6x | $1.96 | — |
| Current | 8.2x | $1.96 | — |
| Cheap | 31x | $7.49 | +282% |
| Fair | 46x | $11.05 | +464% |
| Expensive | 111x | $26.65 | +1260% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
VRRM's PE is in its cheap range at 8.2x. On analysts' estimates for next year's earnings, today's price would be 2.6x.
AAOI Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Returning to profit | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
AAOI has the edge over VRRM on the outlook, with more favorable earnings and revenue expectations.
VRRM Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong decline | |
| Decline | |
| Strongly weakening | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect VRRM's earnings and revenue to decline, with profitability weakening. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
AAOI Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $2.98 | — |
| Q3 2026 | -$0.42 | +$3.02 |
| Q2 2026 | -$0.77 | +$2.81 |
| Q1 2026 | -$0.65 | +$3.43 |
| Q4 2025 | -$0.64 | +$3.86 |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.44 | -$1.41 |
| Q2 2025 | -$3.58 | -$1.70 |
| Q1 2025 | -$4.08 | -$2.29 |
| Q4 2024 | -$4.50 | -$2.75 |
AAOI is still losing money, but far less than before: $0.42 per share over the past year, against $4.50 at its worst in late 2024.
VRRM Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $0.75 | +214% |
| Q3 2026 | $0.24 | -29% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.26 | 0% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.82 | +273% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.85 | +347% |
| Q3 2025 | $0.34 | -43% |
| Q2 2025 | $0.26 | -54% |
| Q1 2025 | $0.22 | -56% |
| Q4 2024 | $0.19 | -47% |
VRRM has the edge over AAOI on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
AAOI Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $269.9M | +127% |
| Q2 2026 | $191.9M | +86% |
| Q1 2026 | $151.1M | +51% |
| Q4 2025 | $134.3M | +34% |
| Q3 2025 | $118.6M | +82% |
| Q2 2025 | $103M | +138% |
| Q1 2025 | $99.9M | +146% |
| Q4 2024 | $100.3M | +66% |
AAOI has the edge over VRRM on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5% | +15 points |
| Q2 2026 | -13% | +2.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | -8.6% | +0.3 points |
| Q4 2025 | -8.6% | -2.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | -15% | +10 points |
| Q2 2025 | -16% | +45 points |
| Q1 2025 | -8.9% | +44 points |
| Q4 2024 | -6.5% | +1 points |
AAOI's operating margin was −0.5% last quarter, up 15 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the top of its range since 2019.
VRRM Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $28.3M | -21% |
| Q2 2026 | $25.8M | -22% |
| Q1 2026 | $27.3M | -13% |
| Q4 2025 | $32.7M | +0.7% |
| Q3 2025 | $35.7M | +26% |
| Q2 2025 | $33.2M | +15% |
| Q1 2025 | $31.4M | +19% |
| Q4 2024 | $32.4M | +17% |
VRRM's revenue has slid since its 2022 peak: $28M last quarter, down 21% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 232% | +22 points |
| Q2 2026 | -127% | -318 points |
| Q1 2026 | 190% | +7.2 points |
| Q4 2025 | 132% | +266 points |
| Q3 2025 | 210% | -16 points |
| Q2 2025 | 191% | -21 points |
| Q1 2025 | 182% | -24 points |
| Q4 2024 | -134% | -218 points |
VRRM has the edge over AAOI on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
AAOI Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$369.9M | -$291.2M |
| Q2 2026 | -$265.3M | -$174.4M |
| Q1 2026 | -$143.6M | -$64.3M |
| Q4 2025 | -$104.6M | -$51.6M |
| Q3 2025 | -$78.7M | -$58M |
| Q2 2025 | -$91M | -$86M |
| Q1 2025 | -$79.3M | -$45.1M |
| Q4 2024 | -$53M | -$48.4M |
AAOI has burned cash in almost every quarter: −$883M over the past year, against −$302M the year before.
VRRM Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $89.4M | +83% |
| Q2 2026 | $32.6M | -19% |
| Q1 2026 | $9.6M | -77% |
| Q4 2025 | $5.7M | -73% |
| Q3 2025 | $49M | -42% |
| Q2 2025 | $40.3M | +55% |
| Q1 2025 | $41.7M | +108% |
| Q4 2024 | $21.6M | +12% |
VRRM has the edge over AAOI on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
AAOI Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +7.7% | +6.3M shares |
| 1 year | +39% | +24.5M shares |
| 3 years | +168% | +55.1M shares |
| 5 years | +224% | +60.7M shares |
| Available history | +340% | +67.9M shares |
AAOI has 88M diluted shares, up 39% from a year ago.
VRRM Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.1% | +175K shares |
| 1 year | -6% | -9.7M shares |
| 3 years | -10% | -17.4M shares |
| 5 years | -8% | -13.3M shares |
| Available history | -7.5% | -12.3M shares |
VRRM has the edge over AAOI on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | — |
| Q2 2026 | $1.3M |
| Q1 2026 | $50.2M |
| Q4 2025 | $133.4M |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | $148.5M |
| Q3 2024 | — |
| Q4 2023 | — |
VRRM spent $185M buying back its own shares over the past year.
AAOI Net Leverage
AAOI's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
VRRM Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 3.7x | Elevated |
| Q2 2026 | 3.9x | Elevated |
| Q1 2026 | 2.9x | Moderate |
| Q4 2025 | 2.7x | Moderate |
| Q3 2025 | 3.2x | Elevated |
| Q2 2025 | 3.5x | Elevated |
| Q1 2025 | 3.7x | Elevated |
| Q4 2024 | 3.9x | Elevated |
VRRM's net debt is about 3.7 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), up from 3.1 years a year ago.
AAOI Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 35.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 4.8 | Oversold |
AAOI's weekly RSI is 35 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 5 (oversold).
VRRM Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 18.4 | Oversold |
| Stochastic | 2.7 | Oversold |
VRRM's weekly RSI is 18 (oversold) and its Stochastic is 3 (oversold).
AAOI PE vs Technology Sector
AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
VRRM PE vs Technology Sector
| Metric | VRRM | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 8.2x | 28x | 71% below |
| PE % | 3 | 35 | 32 pts below |
VRRM is trading at 8.2x earnings, a 71% discount to the Technology sector's median of 28x.
AAOI Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $80.2 | 34% below |
| 20 week MA | $100.6 | 47% below |
| 50 week MA | $100.3 | 47% below |
| 100 week MA | $62.3 | 15% below |
| 200 week MA | $36.9 | 43% above |
AAOI has the edge over VRRM on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
VRRM Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $2.74 | 28% below |
| 20 week MA | $3.67 | 47% below |
| 50 week MA | $10.8 | 82% below |
| 100 week MA | $17.3 | 89% below |
| 200 week MA | $19.7 | 90% below |
VRRM is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 90% below its 200-week average.
AAOI Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $11.5 | $8.77 | -24% |
| 2021 | $8.77 | $5.64 | -36% |
| 2022 | $5.64 | $1.95 | -65% |
| 2023 | $1.95 | $19.3 | +891% |
| 2024 | $19.3 | $37.7 | +95% |
| 2025 | $37.7 | $37.2 | -1.5% |
| 2026 YTD | $37.2 | $52.9 | +42% |
AAOI has the edge over VRRM on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
VRRM Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $14.0 | $13.5 | -3.6% |
| 2021 | $13.5 | $15.2 | +12% |
| 2022 | $15.2 | $13.5 | -11% |
| 2023 | $13.5 | $23.0 | +71% |
| 2024 | $23.0 | $24.1 | +4.6% |
| 2025 | $24.1 | $22.5 | -6.6% |
| 2026 YTD | $22.5 | $1.96 | -91% |
VRRM has finished lower in three of the last six years. It's down 91% so far in 2026.