AAOI
Applied Optoelectronics, Inc.
AAOI offers stronger modeled upside, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
UPBD
Upbound Group, Inc.
UPBD has the edge over AAOI overall, supported by lower modeled downside and stronger valuation.
AAOI Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Under pressure | |
| Weak | |
| Unavailable |
AAOI's revenue is currently strong, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
UPBD Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Strong |
UPBD's profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its revenue is stable.
AAOI PE Valuation
AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year. If it returns to profit as analysts expect, today's price would be 18x next year's earnings.
UPBD PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 5.3x | $23.88 | — |
| Cheap | 11x | $21.16 | -11% |
| Current | 13x | $23.88 | — |
| Fair | 15x | $28.18 | +18% |
| Expensive | 31x | $59.71 | +150% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
UPBD's PE is in its fair range at 13x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 5.3x next year's earnings, in its cheap range.
AAOI Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Returning to profit | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
AAOI has the edge over UPBD on the outlook, with more favorable revenue and profitability expectations.
UPBD Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Growth | |
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect UPBD's earnings to grow, with its revenue and profitability holding steady.
AAOI Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $2.98 | — |
| Q3 2026 | -$0.42 | +$3.02 |
| Q2 2026 | -$0.77 | +$2.81 |
| Q1 2026 | -$0.65 | +$3.43 |
| Q4 2025 | -$0.64 | +$3.86 |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.44 | -$1.41 |
| Q2 2025 | -$3.58 | -$1.70 |
| Q1 2025 | -$4.08 | -$2.29 |
| Q4 2024 | -$4.50 | -$2.75 |
AAOI is still losing money, but far less than before: $0.42 per share over the past year, against $4.50 at its worst in late 2024.
UPBD Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $4.52 | +136% |
| Q3 2026 | $1.91 | +32% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.55 | -13% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.44 | -32% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.25 | -43% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.45 | -2% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.78 | +76% |
| Q1 2025 | $2.13 | +$2.56 |
| Q4 2024 | $2.21 | +$2.30 |
UPBD has the edge over AAOI on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
AAOI Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $269.9M | +127% |
| Q2 2026 | $191.9M | +86% |
| Q1 2026 | $151.1M | +51% |
| Q4 2025 | $134.3M | +34% |
| Q3 2025 | $118.6M | +82% |
| Q2 2025 | $103M | +138% |
| Q1 2025 | $99.9M | +146% |
| Q4 2024 | $100.3M | +66% |
AAOI has the edge over UPBD on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5% | +15 points |
| Q2 2026 | -13% | +2.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | -8.6% | +0.3 points |
| Q4 2025 | -8.6% | -2.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | -15% | +10 points |
| Q2 2025 | -16% | +45 points |
| Q1 2025 | -8.9% | +44 points |
| Q4 2024 | -6.5% | +1 points |
AAOI's operating margin was −0.5% last quarter, up 15 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the top of its range since 2019.
UPBD Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.1B | -1.6% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.2B | +0.5% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.2B | +3.7% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.2B | +11% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.2B | +9% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.2B | +7.5% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.2B | +7.3% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.1B | +6% |
UPBD's revenue has held roughly level: $1.1B last quarter, down 1.6% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 6.2% | +1.7 points |
| Q2 2026 | 4.7% | +0.3 points |
| Q1 2026 | 6.3% | +1 points |
| Q4 2025 | 4.8% | -2.5 points |
| Q3 2025 | 4.5% | -2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 4.4% | -3.1 points |
| Q1 2025 | 5.3% | -0.3 points |
| Q4 2024 | 7.3% | +1.8 points |
UPBD has the edge over AAOI on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
AAOI Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$369.9M | -$291.2M |
| Q2 2026 | -$265.3M | -$174.4M |
| Q1 2026 | -$143.6M | -$64.3M |
| Q4 2025 | -$104.6M | -$51.6M |
| Q3 2025 | -$78.7M | -$58M |
| Q2 2025 | -$91M | -$86M |
| Q1 2025 | -$79.3M | -$45.1M |
| Q4 2024 | -$53M | -$48.4M |
AAOI has burned cash in almost every quarter: −$883M over the past year, against −$302M the year before.
UPBD Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $147M | +50% |
| Q2 2026 | $107.8M | +$118.2M |
| Q1 2026 | $154.7M | +22% |
| Q4 2025 | $24M | +$98.1M |
| Q3 2025 | $97.9M | +11% |
| Q2 2025 | -$10.4M | -1802% |
| Q1 2025 | $127.2M | +278% |
| Q4 2024 | -$74M | -$37.1M |
UPBD has the edge over AAOI on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
AAOI Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +7.7% | +6.3M shares |
| 1 year | +39% | +24.5M shares |
| 3 years | +168% | +55.1M shares |
| 5 years | +224% | +60.7M shares |
| Available history | +340% | +67.9M shares |
AAOI has 88M diluted shares, up 39% from a year ago.
UPBD Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.1% | +59K shares |
| 1 year | -0.2% | -123K shares |
| 3 years | +3.4% | +1.9M shares |
| 5 years | -14% | -9.4M shares |
| Available history | +5% | +2.8M shares |
UPBD has the edge over AAOI on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q4 2023 | $26M |
| Q4 2022 | $45.3M |
| Q4 2021 | $370.1M |
| Q3 2021 | $20M |
| Q2 2021 | — |
| Q1 2021 | — |
| Q4 2020 | — |
AAOI Net Leverage
AAOI's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
UPBD Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -0.2x | Net Cash |
UPBD has more cash than debt.
AAOI Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 35.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 4.8 | Oversold |
AAOI's weekly RSI is 35 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 5 (oversold).
UPBD Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 65.5 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 86.5 | Overbought |
UPBD's weekly RSI is 66 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 86 (overbought).
AAOI PE vs Technology Sector
AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
UPBD PE vs Technology Sector
| Metric | UPBD | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 13x | 28x | 55% below |
| PE % | 33 | 35 | 2 pts below |
UPBD is trading at 13x earnings, a 55% discount to the Technology sector's median of 28x.
AAOI Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $80.2 | 34% below |
| 20 week MA | $100.6 | 47% below |
| 50 week MA | $100.3 | 47% below |
| 100 week MA | $62.3 | 15% below |
| 200 week MA | $36.9 | 43% above |
AAOI has fallen below most of its moving averages, though it's still 43% above its 200-week average.
UPBD Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $18.7 | 28% above |
| 20 week MA | $19.2 | 24% above |
| 50 week MA | $19.1 | 25% above |
| 100 week MA | $21.7 | 10% above |
| 200 week MA | $26.2 | 8.9% below |
UPBD has the edge over AAOI on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
AAOI Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $11.5 | $8.77 | -24% |
| 2021 | $8.77 | $5.64 | -36% |
| 2022 | $5.64 | $1.95 | -65% |
| 2023 | $1.95 | $19.3 | +891% |
| 2024 | $19.3 | $37.7 | +95% |
| 2025 | $37.7 | $37.2 | -1.5% |
| 2026 YTD | $37.2 | $52.9 | +42% |
AAOI has the edge over UPBD on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
UPBD Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $28.5 | $38.2 | +34% |
| 2021 | $38.2 | $48.1 | +26% |
| 2022 | $48.1 | $22.6 | -53% |
| 2023 | $22.6 | $34.0 | +50% |
| 2024 | $34.0 | $29.2 | -14% |
| 2025 | $29.2 | $17.6 | -40% |
| 2026 YTD | $17.6 | $23.9 | +36% |
UPBD is up 36% so far in 2026, after finishing lower in three of the previous six years.