AAOI
Applied Optoelectronics, Inc.
AAOI offers stronger valuation, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
TXN
Texas Instruments Incorporated
TXN has the edge over AAOI overall, supported by lower modeled downside and stronger fundamentals.
AAOI Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Under pressure | |
| Weak | |
| Unavailable |
AAOI's revenue is currently strong, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
TXN Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Healthy |
TXN's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
AAOI PE Valuation
AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year. If it returns to profit as analysts expect, today's price would be 18x next year's earnings.
TXN PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 19x | $150 | -52% |
| Fair | 27x | $206 | -34% |
| Forward | 28x | $312 | — |
| Expensive | 36x | $276 | -12% |
| Current | 40x | $312 | — |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
TXN's PE is in its expensive range at 40x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 28x next year's earnings, in its fair range.
AAOI Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Returning to profit | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect AAOI to return to profit, with revenue growing. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
TXN Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect strong earnings and revenue growth for TXN, with profitability improving.
AAOI Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $2.98 | — |
| Q3 2026 | -$0.42 | +$3.02 |
| Q2 2026 | -$0.77 | +$2.81 |
| Q1 2026 | -$0.65 | +$3.43 |
| Q4 2025 | -$0.64 | +$3.86 |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.44 | -$1.41 |
| Q2 2025 | -$3.58 | -$1.70 |
| Q1 2025 | -$4.08 | -$2.29 |
| Q4 2024 | -$4.50 | -$2.75 |
AAOI is still losing money, but far less than before: $0.42 per share over the past year, against $4.50 at its worst in late 2024.
TXN Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $11.25 | +46% |
| Q3 2026 | $7.72 | +41% |
| Q2 2026 | $6.58 | +20% |
| Q1 2026 | $5.85 | +11% |
| Q4 2025 | $5.45 | +4.8% |
| Q3 2025 | $5.48 | +1.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $5.47 | -5.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $5.28 | -18% |
| Q4 2024 | $5.20 | -26% |
TXN has the edge over AAOI on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
AAOI Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $269.9M | +127% |
| Q2 2026 | $191.9M | +86% |
| Q1 2026 | $151.1M | +51% |
| Q4 2025 | $134.3M | +34% |
| Q3 2025 | $118.6M | +82% |
| Q2 2025 | $103M | +138% |
| Q1 2025 | $99.9M | +146% |
| Q4 2024 | $100.3M | +66% |
AAOI has the edge over TXN on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5% | +15 points |
| Q2 2026 | -13% | +2.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | -8.6% | +0.3 points |
| Q4 2025 | -8.6% | -2.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | -15% | +10 points |
| Q2 2025 | -16% | +45 points |
| Q1 2025 | -8.9% | +44 points |
| Q4 2024 | -6.5% | +1 points |
AAOI's operating margin was −0.5% last quarter, up 15 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the top of its range since 2019.
TXN Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $6.1B | +28% |
| Q2 2026 | $5.5B | +23% |
| Q1 2026 | $4.8B | +19% |
| Q4 2025 | $4.4B | +10% |
| Q3 2025 | $4.7B | +14% |
| Q2 2025 | $4.4B | +16% |
| Q1 2025 | $4.1B | +11% |
| Q4 2024 | $4B | -1.7% |
TXN's revenue has grown year over year for seven quarters in a row: $6.1B last quarter, up 28% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 47% | +12 points |
| Q2 2026 | 42% | +7.1 points |
| Q1 2026 | 37% | +4.9 points |
| Q4 2025 | 33% | -1.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 35% | -2.4 points |
| Q2 2025 | 35% | +2.5 points |
| Q1 2025 | 33% | -2.6 points |
| Q4 2024 | 34% | -3.2 points |
TXN has the edge over AAOI on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
AAOI Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$369.9M | -$291.2M |
| Q2 2026 | -$265.3M | -$174.4M |
| Q1 2026 | -$143.6M | -$64.3M |
| Q4 2025 | -$104.6M | -$51.6M |
| Q3 2025 | -$78.7M | -$58M |
| Q2 2025 | -$91M | -$86M |
| Q1 2025 | -$79.3M | -$45.1M |
| Q4 2024 | -$53M | -$48.4M |
AAOI has burned cash in almost every quarter: −$883M over the past year, against −$302M the year before.
TXN Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3B | +198% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.2B | +294% |
| Q1 2026 | $844M | +$1.1B |
| Q4 2025 | $1.3B | +65% |
| Q3 2025 | $993M | +139% |
| Q2 2025 | $555M | +9.5% |
| Q1 2025 | -$274M | -$43M |
| Q4 2024 | $806M | +3.9% |
TXN has the edge over AAOI on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
AAOI Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +7.7% | +6.3M shares |
| 1 year | +39% | +24.5M shares |
| 3 years | +168% | +55.1M shares |
| 5 years | +224% | +60.7M shares |
| Available history | +340% | +67.9M shares |
AAOI has 88M diluted shares, up 39% from a year ago.
TXN Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.1% | +1M shares |
| 1 year | +0.8% | +7M shares |
| 3 years | +0.5% | +5M shares |
| 5 years | -1.6% | -15M shares |
| Available history | -3.3% | -31M shares |
TXN has the edge over AAOI on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $48M |
| Q2 2026 | $27M |
| Q1 2026 | $158M |
| Q4 2025 | $403M |
| Q3 2025 | $119M |
| Q2 2025 | $302M |
| Q1 2025 | $653M |
| Q4 2024 | $537M |
TXN spent $636M buying back its own shares over the past year, down 61% from the year before.
AAOI Net Leverage
AAOI's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
TXN Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 0.9x | Very low |
| Q2 2026 | 1.1x | Healthy |
| Q1 2026 | 1.2x | Healthy |
| Q4 2025 | 1.4x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | 1.4x | Healthy |
| Q2 2025 | 1.5x | Healthy |
| Q1 2025 | 1.4x | Healthy |
| Q4 2024 | 1.5x | Healthy |
TXN's net debt is less than a year of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 1.4 years a year ago.
AAOI Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 35.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 4.8 | Oversold |
AAOI's weekly RSI is 35 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 5 (oversold).
TXN Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 60.6 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 72.2 | Neutral |
TXN's weekly RSI is 61 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 72 (neutral).
AAOI PE vs Technology Sector
AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
TXN PE vs Technology Sector
| Metric | TXN | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 40x | 28x | 45% above |
| PE % | 92 | 35 | 57 pts above |
TXN is trading at 40x earnings, a 45% premium to the Technology sector's median of 28x.
AAOI Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $80.2 | 34% below |
| 20 week MA | $100.6 | 47% below |
| 50 week MA | $100.3 | 47% below |
| 100 week MA | $62.3 | 15% below |
| 200 week MA | $36.9 | 43% above |
AAOI has fallen below most of its moving averages, though it's still 43% above its 200-week average.
TXN Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $288.4 | 8.3% above |
| 20 week MA | $281.7 | 11% above |
| 50 week MA | $251.1 | 24% above |
| 100 week MA | $217.0 | 44% above |
| 200 week MA | $197.7 | 58% above |
TXN has the edge over AAOI on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
AAOI Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $11.5 | $8.77 | -24% |
| 2021 | $8.77 | $5.64 | -36% |
| 2022 | $5.64 | $1.95 | -65% |
| 2023 | $1.95 | $19.3 | +891% |
| 2024 | $19.3 | $37.7 | +95% |
| 2025 | $37.7 | $37.2 | -1.5% |
| 2026 YTD | $37.2 | $52.9 | +42% |
AAOI's yearly returns have swung widely, from +891% in 2023 to −65% in 2022. It's up 42% so far in 2026.
TXN Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $128.6 | $161.6 | +26% |
| 2021 | $161.6 | $187.4 | +16% |
| 2022 | $187.4 | $164.4 | -12% |
| 2023 | $164.4 | $170.5 | +3.7% |
| 2024 | $170.5 | $191.2 | +12% |
| 2025 | $191.2 | $176.9 | -7.5% |
| 2026 YTD | $176.9 | $312.5 | +77% |
TXN has the edge over AAOI on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.