AAOI
Applied Optoelectronics, Inc.
AAOI offers stronger valuation, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
STM
STMicroelectronics N.V.
STM has a slight edge over AAOI overall, supported by lower modeled downside and stronger modeled upside.
AAOI Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Under pressure | |
| Weak | |
| Unavailable |
AAOI's revenue is currently strong, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
STM Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Stable | |
| Strong |
STM's revenue, profitability and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its cash flow is stable.
AAOI PE Valuation
AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year. If it returns to profit as analysts expect, today's price would be 18x next year's earnings.
STM PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 9.6x | $5.40 | -88% |
| Fair | 21x | $11.96 | -74% |
| Expensive | 40x | $22.34 | -52% |
| Current | 83x | $46.46 | — |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
STM's PE is in its expensive range at 83x.
AAOI Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Returning to profit | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect AAOI to return to profit, with revenue growing. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
STM Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect strong earnings and revenue growth for STM, with profitability improving.
AAOI Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $2.98 | — |
| Q3 2026 | -$0.42 | +$3.02 |
| Q2 2026 | -$0.77 | +$2.81 |
| Q1 2026 | -$0.65 | +$3.43 |
| Q4 2025 | -$0.64 | +$3.86 |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.44 | -$1.41 |
| Q2 2025 | -$3.58 | -$1.70 |
| Q1 2025 | -$4.08 | -$2.29 |
| Q4 2024 | -$4.50 | -$2.75 |
AAOI is still losing money, but far less than before: $0.42 per share over the past year, against $4.50 at its worst in late 2024.
STM Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $0.56 | -1.8% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.51 | -25% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.16 | -86% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.18 | -89% |
| Q3 2025 | $0.57 | -77% |
| Q2 2025 | $0.68 | -79% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.17 | -70% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.65 | -63% |
STM has the edge over AAOI on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
AAOI Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $269.9M | +127% |
| Q2 2026 | $191.9M | +86% |
| Q1 2026 | $151.1M | +51% |
| Q4 2025 | $134.3M | +34% |
| Q3 2025 | $118.6M | +82% |
| Q2 2025 | $103M | +138% |
| Q1 2025 | $99.9M | +146% |
| Q4 2024 | $100.3M | +66% |
AAOI has the edge over STM on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5% | +15 points |
| Q2 2026 | -13% | +2.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | -8.6% | +0.3 points |
| Q4 2025 | -8.6% | -2.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | -15% | +10 points |
| Q2 2025 | -16% | +45 points |
| Q1 2025 | -8.9% | +44 points |
| Q4 2024 | -6.5% | +1 points |
AAOI's operating margin was −0.5% last quarter, up 15 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the top of its range since 2019.
STM Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.8B | +18% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.5B | +24% |
| Q1 2026 | $3.1B | +23% |
| Q4 2025 | $3.3B | +0.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.2B | -2.4% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.8B | -13% |
| Q1 2025 | $2.5B | -27% |
| Q4 2024 | $3.3B | -22% |
STM's revenue is recovering but still below its 2023 peak: $3.8B last quarter, up 18% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 11% | +5.8 points |
| Q2 2026 | 6.3% | +7.2 points |
| Q1 2026 | 3.1% | +4.6 points |
| Q4 2025 | 6.2% | -4.9 points |
| Q3 2025 | 5.1% | -6.6 points |
| Q2 2025 | -0.9% | -13 points |
| Q1 2025 | -1.5% | -17 points |
| Q4 2024 | 11% | -13 points |
STM has the edge over AAOI on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
AAOI Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$369.9M | -$291.2M |
| Q2 2026 | -$265.3M | -$174.4M |
| Q1 2026 | -$143.6M | -$64.3M |
| Q4 2025 | -$104.6M | -$51.6M |
| Q3 2025 | -$78.7M | -$58M |
| Q2 2025 | -$91M | -$86M |
| Q1 2025 | -$79.3M | -$45.1M |
| Q4 2024 | -$53M | -$48.4M |
AAOI has burned cash in almost every quarter: −$883M over the past year, against −$302M the year before.
STM Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | -$121.5M | +$139.5M |
| Q1 2026 | $155.5M | +$182.5M |
| Q4 2025 | -$62.5K | -100% |
| Q3 2025 | $182.4M | +9019% |
| Q2 2025 | -$261M | -2275% |
| Q1 2025 | -$27M | +$108M |
| Q4 2024 | $65M | -83% |
| Q3 2024 | $2M | -100% |
STM has the edge over AAOI on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
AAOI Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +7.7% | +6.3M shares |
| 1 year | +39% | +24.5M shares |
| 3 years | +168% | +55.1M shares |
| 5 years | +224% | +60.7M shares |
| Available history | +340% | +67.9M shares |
AAOI has 88M diluted shares, up 39% from a year ago.
STM Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.4% | +3.7M shares |
| 1 year | +1.4% | +12.8M shares |
| 3 years | -1.3% | -12.1M shares |
| 5 years | +1% | +8.9M shares |
| Available history | +2.4% | +21.7M shares |
STM has the edge over AAOI on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | $184M |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q2 2025 | $92M |
| Q1 2025 | $92M |
| Q4 2024 | $92M |
| Q3 2024 | $92M |
AAOI Net Leverage
AAOI's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
STM Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 0.2x | Very low |
| Q2 2026 | 0.4x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | 0.3x | Very low |
| Q4 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | 0.2x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 0.4x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | 0.2x | Very low |
STM's net debt is less than a year of its operating earnings (EBITDA).
AAOI Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 35.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 4.8 | Oversold |
AAOI's weekly RSI is 35 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 5 (oversold).
STM Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 45.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 22.3 | Neutral |
STM's weekly RSI is 46 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 22 (neutral).
AAOI PE vs Technology Sector
AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
STM PE vs Technology Sector
| Metric | STM | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 83x | 28x | 198% above |
| PE % | 90 | 35 | 55 pts above |
STM is trading at 83x earnings, a 198% premium to the Technology sector's median of 28x.
AAOI Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $80.2 | 34% below |
| 20 week MA | $100.6 | 47% below |
| 50 week MA | $100.3 | 47% below |
| 100 week MA | $62.3 | 15% below |
| 200 week MA | $36.9 | 43% above |
AAOI has fallen below most of its moving averages, though it's still 43% above its 200-week average.
STM Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $48.2 | 3.6% below |
| 20 week MA | $52.8 | 12% below |
| 50 week MA | $46.8 | 0.6% below |
| 100 week MA | $36.2 | 28% above |
| 200 week MA | $39.0 | 19% above |
STM has the edge over AAOI on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
AAOI Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $11.5 | $8.77 | -24% |
| 2021 | $8.77 | $5.64 | -36% |
| 2022 | $5.64 | $1.95 | -65% |
| 2023 | $1.95 | $19.3 | +891% |
| 2024 | $19.3 | $37.7 | +95% |
| 2025 | $37.7 | $37.2 | -1.5% |
| 2026 YTD | $37.2 | $52.9 | +42% |
AAOI's yearly returns have swung widely, from +891% in 2023 to −65% in 2022. It's up 42% so far in 2026.
STM Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $27.1 | $36.9 | +36% |
| 2021 | $36.9 | $48.6 | +32% |
| 2022 | $48.6 | $35.9 | -26% |
| 2023 | $35.9 | $50.1 | +40% |
| 2024 | $50.1 | $25.5 | -49% |
| 2025 | $25.5 | $26.2 | +3% |
| 2026 YTD | $26.2 | $46.5 | +77% |
STM has the edge over AAOI on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.