AAOI
Applied Optoelectronics, Inc.
AAOI has a slight edge over SAIC overall, supported by stronger modeled upside and stronger fundamentals.
SAIC
Science Applications International Corporation
SAIC has lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
AAOI Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Under pressure | |
| Weak | |
| Unavailable |
AAOI's revenue is currently strong, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
SAIC Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Under pressure |
SAIC's profitability and cash flow are currently healthy, and its revenue is stable, but its balance sheet is under pressure.
AAOI PE Valuation
AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year. If it returns to profit as analysts expect, today's price would be 18x next year's earnings.
SAIC PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 13x | $114 | -25% |
| Forward | 14x | $151 | — |
| Fair | 18x | $157 | +3.7% |
| Current | 18x | $151 | — |
| Expensive | 24x | $202 | +34% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
SAIC's PE is in its fair range at 18x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 14x next year's earnings, in its cheap range.
AAOI Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Returning to profit | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
AAOI has the edge over SAIC on the outlook, with more favorable revenue expectations.
SAIC Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Growth | |
| Stable | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect SAIC's earnings to grow and its profitability to improve, with its revenue holding steady.
AAOI Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $2.98 | — |
| Q3 2026 | -$0.42 | +$3.02 |
| Q2 2026 | -$0.77 | +$2.81 |
| Q1 2026 | -$0.65 | +$3.43 |
| Q4 2025 | -$0.64 | +$3.86 |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.44 | -$1.41 |
| Q2 2025 | -$3.58 | -$1.70 |
| Q1 2025 | -$4.08 | -$2.29 |
| Q4 2024 | -$4.50 | -$2.75 |
AAOI is still losing money, but far less than before: $0.42 per share over the past year, against $4.50 at its worst in late 2024.
SAIC Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $10.73 | +25% |
| Q3 2026 | $8.56 | +3.9% |
| Q2 2026 | $8.89 | +25% |
| Q1 2026 | $7.70 | +7.4% |
| Q4 2025 | $7.80 | +31% |
| Q3 2025 | $8.24 | +47% |
| Q2 2025 | $7.11 | -17% |
| Q1 2025 | $7.17 | -19% |
| Q4 2024 | $5.96 | -37% |
SAIC has the edge over AAOI on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
AAOI Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $269.9M | +127% |
| Q2 2026 | $191.9M | +86% |
| Q1 2026 | $151.1M | +51% |
| Q4 2025 | $134.3M | +34% |
| Q3 2025 | $118.6M | +82% |
| Q2 2025 | $103M | +138% |
| Q1 2025 | $99.9M | +146% |
| Q4 2024 | $100.3M | +66% |
AAOI has the edge over SAIC on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5% | +15 points |
| Q2 2026 | -13% | +2.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | -8.6% | +0.3 points |
| Q4 2025 | -8.6% | -2.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | -15% | +10 points |
| Q2 2025 | -16% | +45 points |
| Q1 2025 | -8.9% | +44 points |
| Q4 2024 | -6.5% | +1 points |
AAOI's operating margin was −0.5% last quarter, up 15 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the top of its range since 2019.
SAIC Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.9B | +6.3% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.9B | +1.5% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.8B | -4.8% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.9B | -5.6% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.8B | -2.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.9B | +1.6% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.8B | +5.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $2B | +4.3% |
SAIC's revenue grew through 2020 and has held roughly level since: $1.9B last quarter, up 6.3% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 8.1% | +0.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 9.4% | +2.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 7.6% | +0.1 points |
| Q4 2025 | 6.9% | -1.2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 7.9% | +0.5 points |
| Q2 2025 | 6.5% | -0.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 7.5% | +3 points |
| Q4 2024 | 8.1% | +0.5 points |
SAIC has the edge over AAOI on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
AAOI Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$369.9M | -$291.2M |
| Q2 2026 | -$265.3M | -$174.4M |
| Q1 2026 | -$143.6M | -$64.3M |
| Q4 2025 | -$104.6M | -$51.6M |
| Q3 2025 | -$78.7M | -$58M |
| Q2 2025 | -$91M | -$86M |
| Q1 2025 | -$79.3M | -$45.1M |
| Q4 2024 | -$53M | -$48.4M |
AAOI has burned cash in almost every quarter: −$883M over the past year, against −$302M the year before.
SAIC Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $131M | +14% |
| Q2 2026 | $118M | +28% |
| Q1 2026 | $250M | +150% |
| Q4 2025 | $120M | -10% |
| Q3 2025 | $115M | -13% |
| Q2 2025 | $92M | 0% |
| Q1 2025 | $100M | +92% |
| Q4 2024 | $134M | +38% |
SAIC has the edge over AAOI on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
AAOI Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +7.7% | +6.3M shares |
| 1 year | +39% | +24.5M shares |
| 3 years | +168% | +55.1M shares |
| 5 years | +224% | +60.7M shares |
| Available history | +340% | +67.9M shares |
AAOI has 88M diluted shares, up 39% from a year ago.
SAIC Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -2.7% | -1.2M shares |
| 1 year | -8.5% | -4M shares |
| 3 years | -21% | -11.1M shares |
| 5 years | -27% | -15.6M shares |
| Available history | -27% | -15.5M shares |
SAIC has the edge over AAOI on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $98M |
| Q2 2026 | $188M |
| Q1 2026 | $98M |
| Q4 2025 | $95M |
| Q3 2025 | $110M |
| Q2 2025 | $142M |
| Q1 2025 | $133M |
| Q4 2024 | $121M |
SAIC spent $479M buying back its own shares over the past year, down 5.3% from the year before.
AAOI Net Leverage
AAOI's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
SAIC Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 3.2x | Elevated |
| Q2 2026 | 3.3x | Elevated |
| Q1 2026 | 3.4x | Elevated |
| Q4 2025 | 3.6x | Elevated |
| Q3 2025 | 3.2x | Elevated |
| Q2 2025 | 3.2x | Elevated |
| Q1 2025 | 3.1x | Elevated |
| Q4 2024 | 3.3x | Elevated |
SAIC's net debt is about 3.1 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), about the same as a year ago.
AAOI Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 35.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 4.8 | Oversold |
AAOI's weekly RSI is 35 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 5 (oversold).
SAIC Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 70.4 | Overbought |
| Stochastic | 86.2 | Overbought |
SAIC's weekly RSI is 70 (overbought) and its Stochastic is 86 (overbought).
AAOI PE vs Technology Sector
AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
SAIC PE vs Technology Sector
| Metric | SAIC | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 18x | 28x | 37% below |
| PE % | 45 | 35 | 10 pts above |
SAIC is trading at 18x earnings, a 37% discount to the Technology sector's median of 28x.
AAOI Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $80.2 | 34% below |
| 20 week MA | $100.6 | 47% below |
| 50 week MA | $100.3 | 47% below |
| 100 week MA | $62.3 | 15% below |
| 200 week MA | $36.9 | 43% above |
AAOI has fallen below most of its moving averages, though it's still 43% above its 200-week average.
SAIC Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $140.1 | 8% above |
| 20 week MA | $129.7 | 17% above |
| 50 week MA | $111.9 | 35% above |
| 100 week MA | $109.9 | 38% above |
| 200 week MA | $115.1 | 31% above |
SAIC has the edge over AAOI on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
AAOI Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $11.5 | $8.77 | -24% |
| 2021 | $8.77 | $5.64 | -36% |
| 2022 | $5.64 | $1.95 | -65% |
| 2023 | $1.95 | $19.3 | +891% |
| 2024 | $19.3 | $37.7 | +95% |
| 2025 | $37.7 | $37.2 | -1.5% |
| 2026 YTD | $37.2 | $52.9 | +42% |
AAOI's yearly returns have swung widely, from +891% in 2023 to −65% in 2022. It's up 42% so far in 2026.
SAIC Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $88.3 | $96.8 | +9.7% |
| 2021 | $96.8 | $82.4 | -15% |
| 2022 | $82.4 | $109.5 | +33% |
| 2023 | $109.5 | $124.3 | +14% |
| 2024 | $124.3 | $111.1 | -11% |
| 2025 | $111.1 | $102.7 | -7.6% |
| 2026 YTD | $102.7 | $151.2 | +47% |
SAIC has the edge over AAOI on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.