AAOI
Applied Optoelectronics, Inc.
AAOI has a slight edge over PEGA overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and stronger modeled upside.
PEGA
Pegasystems Inc.
PEGA has lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
AAOI Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Under pressure | |
| Weak | |
| Unavailable |
AAOI's revenue is currently strong, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
PEGA Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
PEGA's cash flow and balance sheet are currently strong, and its revenue and profitability are stable.
AAOI PE Valuation
AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year. If it returns to profit as analysts expect, today's price would be 18x next year's earnings.
PEGA PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 14x | $32.04 | — |
| Cheap | 26x | $30.01 | -6.3% |
| Current | 28x | $32.04 | — |
| Fair | 46x | $53.25 | +66% |
| Expensive | 75x | $86.65 | +170% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
PEGA's PE is in its cheap range at 28x. On analysts' estimates for next year's earnings, today's price would be 14x.
AAOI Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Returning to profit | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
AAOI has the edge over PEGA on the outlook, with more favorable earnings and revenue expectations.
PEGA Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect PEGA's earnings, revenue and profitability to hold roughly steady.
AAOI Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $2.98 | — |
| Q3 2026 | -$0.42 | +$3.02 |
| Q2 2026 | -$0.77 | +$2.81 |
| Q1 2026 | -$0.65 | +$3.43 |
| Q4 2025 | -$0.64 | +$3.86 |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.44 | -$1.41 |
| Q2 2025 | -$3.58 | -$1.70 |
| Q1 2025 | -$4.08 | -$2.29 |
| Q4 2024 | -$4.50 | -$2.75 |
AAOI is still losing money, but far less than before: $0.42 per share over the past year, against $4.50 at its worst in late 2024.
PEGA Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $2.34 | +103% |
| Q3 2026 | $1.15 | -25% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.31 | +7.4% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.40 | +30% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.67 | +198% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.54 | +123% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.22 | +67% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.08 | +157% |
| Q4 2024 | $0.56 | +56% |
PEGA has the edge over AAOI on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
AAOI Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $269.9M | +127% |
| Q2 2026 | $191.9M | +86% |
| Q1 2026 | $151.1M | +51% |
| Q4 2025 | $134.3M | +34% |
| Q3 2025 | $118.6M | +82% |
| Q2 2025 | $103M | +138% |
| Q1 2025 | $99.9M | +146% |
| Q4 2024 | $100.3M | +66% |
AAOI has the edge over PEGA on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5% | +15 points |
| Q2 2026 | -13% | +2.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | -8.6% | +0.3 points |
| Q4 2025 | -8.6% | -2.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | -15% | +10 points |
| Q2 2025 | -16% | +45 points |
| Q1 2025 | -8.9% | +44 points |
| Q4 2024 | -6.5% | +1 points |
AAOI's operating margin was −0.5% last quarter, up 15 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the top of its range since 2019.
PEGA Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $393.4M | +3.1% |
| Q2 2026 | $420.7M | +9.4% |
| Q1 2026 | $430M | -9.6% |
| Q4 2025 | $504.3M | +2.7% |
| Q3 2025 | $381.4M | +17% |
| Q2 2025 | $384.5M | +9.5% |
| Q1 2025 | $475.6M | +44% |
| Q4 2024 | $490.8M | +3.5% |
PEGA's revenue has held roughly level: $393M last quarter, up 3.1% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 3.8% | 0 points |
| Q2 2026 | 4% | -0.5 points |
| Q1 2026 | 8.6% | -18 points |
| Q4 2025 | 21% | -8.4 points |
| Q3 2025 | 3.8% | +7.4 points |
| Q2 2025 | 4.5% | +0.8 points |
| Q1 2025 | 27% | +33 points |
| Q4 2024 | 29% | -3.6 points |
PEGA has the edge over AAOI on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
AAOI Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$369.9M | -$291.2M |
| Q2 2026 | -$265.3M | -$174.4M |
| Q1 2026 | -$143.6M | -$64.3M |
| Q4 2025 | -$104.6M | -$51.6M |
| Q3 2025 | -$78.7M | -$58M |
| Q2 2025 | -$91M | -$86M |
| Q1 2025 | -$79.3M | -$45.1M |
| Q4 2024 | -$53M | -$48.4M |
AAOI has burned cash in almost every quarter: −$883M over the past year, against −$302M the year before.
PEGA Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.6M | -97% |
| Q2 2026 | $81.7M | -2.9% |
| Q1 2026 | $206.5M | +2.1% |
| Q4 2025 | $152.4M | +65% |
| Q3 2025 | $51.8M | +89% |
| Q2 2025 | $84.1M | +117% |
| Q1 2025 | $202.3M | +13% |
| Q4 2024 | $92.4M | +19% |
PEGA has the edge over AAOI on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
AAOI Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +7.7% | +6.3M shares |
| 1 year | +39% | +24.5M shares |
| 3 years | +168% | +55.1M shares |
| 5 years | +224% | +60.7M shares |
| Available history | +340% | +67.9M shares |
AAOI has 88M diluted shares, up 39% from a year ago.
PEGA Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -1.8% | -3.1M shares |
| 1 year | -8.4% | -15.5M shares |
| 3 years | +1.2% | +2M shares |
| 5 years | +3.4% | +5.6M shares |
| Available history | +6.7% | +10.5M shares |
PEGA has the edge over AAOI on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $65M |
| Q2 2026 | $200.4M |
| Q1 2026 | $167.3M |
| Q4 2025 | $105M |
| Q3 2025 | $143M |
| Q2 2025 | $134.5M |
| Q1 2025 | $117.2M |
| Q4 2024 | $56.8M |
PEGA spent $538M buying back its own shares over the past year, up 19% from the year before.
AAOI Net Leverage
AAOI's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
PEGA Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -1.1x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -1.0x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -1.5x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -0.8x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.7x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.8x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | 0.9x | Very low |
PEGA has more cash than debt.
AAOI Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 35.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 4.8 | Oversold |
AAOI's weekly RSI is 35 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 5 (oversold).
PEGA Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 42.5 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 32.6 | Neutral |
PEGA's weekly RSI is 43 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 33 (neutral).
AAOI PE vs Technology Sector
AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
PEGA PE vs Technology Sector
| Metric | PEGA | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 28x | 28x | Same PE |
| PE % | 22 | 35 | 13 pts below |
PEGA is trading at 28x earnings, in line with the Technology sector's median of 28x.
AAOI Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $80.2 | 34% below |
| 20 week MA | $100.6 | 47% below |
| 50 week MA | $100.3 | 47% below |
| 100 week MA | $62.3 | 15% below |
| 200 week MA | $36.9 | 43% above |
AAOI has the edge over PEGA on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
PEGA Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $34.1 | 6% below |
| 20 week MA | $33.4 | 4.1% below |
| 50 week MA | $39.7 | 19% below |
| 100 week MA | $44.7 | 28% below |
| 200 week MA | $36.5 | 12% below |
PEGA is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 12% below its 200-week average.
AAOI Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $11.5 | $8.77 | -24% |
| 2021 | $8.77 | $5.64 | -36% |
| 2022 | $5.64 | $1.95 | -65% |
| 2023 | $1.95 | $19.3 | +891% |
| 2024 | $19.3 | $37.7 | +95% |
| 2025 | $37.7 | $37.2 | -1.5% |
| 2026 YTD | $37.2 | $52.9 | +42% |
AAOI has the edge over PEGA on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
PEGA Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $39.7 | $69.3 | +75% |
| 2021 | $69.3 | $55.2 | -20% |
| 2022 | $55.2 | $17.1 | -69% |
| 2023 | $17.1 | $24.4 | +43% |
| 2024 | $24.4 | $47.2 | +93% |
| 2025 | $47.2 | $62.4 | +32% |
| 2026 YTD | $62.4 | $32.0 | -49% |
PEGA is down 49% so far in 2026, after finishing higher in four of the previous six years.