AAOI
Applied Optoelectronics, Inc.
AAOI has the edge over PAGS overall, supported by stronger modeled upside and stronger fundamentals.
PAGS
PagSeguro Digital Ltd.
PAGS has lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
AAOI Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Under pressure | |
| Weak | |
| Unavailable |
AAOI's revenue is currently strong, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
PAGS Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Strong | |
| Under pressure | |
| Weak |
PAGS's profitability is currently strong, and its revenue is stable, but its cash flow and balance sheet are under pressure.
AAOI PE Valuation
AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year. If it returns to profit as analysts expect, today's price would be 18x next year's earnings.
PAGS PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current | 5.8x | $7.82 | — |
| Cheap | 7.1x | $9.52 | +22% |
| Fair | 12x | $16.50 | +111% |
| Expensive | 51x | $67.68 | +766% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
PAGS's PE is 5.8x, but its earnings don't support one, so it isn't a reliable read right now.
AAOI Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Returning to profit | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
AAOI has the edge over PAGS on the outlook, with more favorable earnings and revenue expectations.
PAGS Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect PAGS's earnings, revenue and profitability to hold roughly steady.
AAOI Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $2.98 | — |
| Q3 2026 | -$0.42 | +$3.02 |
| Q2 2026 | -$0.77 | +$2.81 |
| Q1 2026 | -$0.65 | +$3.43 |
| Q4 2025 | -$0.64 | +$3.86 |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.44 | -$1.41 |
| Q2 2025 | -$3.58 | -$1.70 |
| Q1 2025 | -$4.08 | -$2.29 |
| Q4 2024 | -$4.50 | -$2.75 |
AAOI is still losing money, but far less than before: $0.42 per share over the past year, against $4.50 at its worst in late 2024.
PAGS Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $1.34 | +5.5% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.31 | +6.5% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.28 | +7.6% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.31 | +17% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.27 | +21% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.23 | +26% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.19 | +31% |
| Q3 2024 | $1.12 | +30% |
PAGS has the edge over AAOI on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
AAOI Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $269.9M | +127% |
| Q2 2026 | $191.9M | +86% |
| Q1 2026 | $151.1M | +51% |
| Q4 2025 | $134.3M | +34% |
| Q3 2025 | $118.6M | +82% |
| Q2 2025 | $103M | +138% |
| Q1 2025 | $99.9M | +146% |
| Q4 2024 | $100.3M | +66% |
AAOI has the edge over PAGS on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5% | +15 points |
| Q2 2026 | -13% | +2.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | -8.6% | +0.3 points |
| Q4 2025 | -8.6% | -2.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | -15% | +10 points |
| Q2 2025 | -16% | +45 points |
| Q1 2025 | -8.9% | +44 points |
| Q4 2024 | -6.5% | +1 points |
AAOI's operating margin was −0.5% last quarter, up 15 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the top of its range since 2019.
PAGS Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $873.8M | -0.2% |
| Q1 2026 | $840.1M | -0.4% |
| Q4 2025 | $949.7M | +6% |
| Q3 2025 | $880.1M | +4.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $875.7M | +11% |
| Q1 2025 | $843.5M | +12% |
| Q4 2024 | $895.7M | +17% |
| Q3 2024 | $842.3M | +19% |
PAGS's revenue has held roughly level: $874M last quarter, about level with the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 36% | -0.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 37% | +1.6 points |
| Q4 2025 | 39% | +5.2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 38% | +6.6 points |
| Q2 2025 | 37% | +5 points |
| Q1 2025 | 36% | +3.3 points |
| Q4 2024 | 34% | -0.5 points |
| Q3 2024 | 32% | -2.1 points |
PAGS has the edge over AAOI on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
AAOI Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$369.9M | -$291.2M |
| Q2 2026 | -$265.3M | -$174.4M |
| Q1 2026 | -$143.6M | -$64.3M |
| Q4 2025 | -$104.6M | -$51.6M |
| Q3 2025 | -$78.7M | -$58M |
| Q2 2025 | -$91M | -$86M |
| Q1 2025 | -$79.3M | -$45.1M |
| Q4 2024 | -$53M | -$48.4M |
AAOI has burned cash in almost every quarter: −$883M over the past year, against −$302M the year before.
PAGS Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $139.8M | -54% |
| Q1 2026 | $39.4M | -61% |
| Q4 2025 | -$579.5M | -$433.3M |
| Q3 2025 | $299M | +$527.2M |
| Q2 2025 | $305.5M | +$1.2B |
| Q1 2025 | $101.6M | -70% |
| Q4 2024 | -$146.2M | -314% |
| Q3 2024 | -$228.1M | -387% |
PAGS has the edge over AAOI on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
AAOI Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +7.7% | +6.3M shares |
| 1 year | +39% | +24.5M shares |
| 3 years | +168% | +55.1M shares |
| 5 years | +224% | +60.7M shares |
| Available history | +340% | +67.9M shares |
AAOI has 88M diluted shares, up 39% from a year ago.
PAGS Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -1.2% | -3.4M shares |
| 1 year | -7.1% | -21.2M shares |
| 3 years | -14% | -46M shares |
| 5 years | -15% | -50.9M shares |
| Available history | -15% | -51.1M shares |
PAGS has the edge over AAOI on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $16.9M |
| Q1 2026 | $49.7M |
| Q4 2025 | $107.9M |
| Q3 2025 | $8.6M |
| Q2 2025 | $83.8M |
| Q1 2025 | $40.9M |
| Q4 2024 | $63.9M |
| Q3 2024 | $76.6M |
PAGS spent $183M buying back its own shares over the past year, down 31% from the year before.
AAOI Net Leverage
AAOI's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
PAGS Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 4.7x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 4.6x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 4.5x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 4.5x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 4.8x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 4.7x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 5.3x | High |
| Q3 2024 | 5.1x | High |
PAGS's net debt is about 4.7 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), about the same as a year ago.
AAOI Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 35.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 4.8 | Oversold |
AAOI's weekly RSI is 35 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 5 (oversold).
PAGS Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 40.9 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 7.0 | Oversold |
PAGS's weekly RSI is 41 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 7 (oversold).
AAOI PE vs Technology Sector
AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
PAGS PE vs Technology Sector
| Metric | PAGS | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 5.8x | 28x | 79% below |
| PE % | 1 | 35 | 34 pts below |
PAGS is trading at 5.8x earnings, a 79% discount to the Technology sector's median of 28x, though its earnings don't support one.
AAOI Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $80.2 | 34% below |
| 20 week MA | $100.6 | 47% below |
| 50 week MA | $100.3 | 47% below |
| 100 week MA | $62.3 | 15% below |
| 200 week MA | $36.9 | 43% above |
AAOI has the edge over PAGS on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
PAGS Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $9.38 | 17% below |
| 20 week MA | $9.29 | 16% below |
| 50 week MA | $9.69 | 19% below |
| 100 week MA | $9.11 | 14% below |
| 200 week MA | $9.76 | 20% below |
PAGS is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 20% below its 200-week average.
AAOI Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $11.5 | $8.77 | -24% |
| 2021 | $8.77 | $5.64 | -36% |
| 2022 | $5.64 | $1.95 | -65% |
| 2023 | $1.95 | $19.3 | +891% |
| 2024 | $19.3 | $37.7 | +95% |
| 2025 | $37.7 | $37.2 | -1.5% |
| 2026 YTD | $37.2 | $52.9 | +42% |
AAOI has the edge over PAGS on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
PAGS Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $34.5 | $53.8 | +56% |
| 2021 | $53.8 | $26.7 | -50% |
| 2022 | $26.7 | $8.62 | -68% |
| 2023 | $8.62 | $12.5 | +45% |
| 2024 | $12.5 | $6.38 | -49% |
| 2025 | $6.38 | $9.77 | +53% |
| 2026 YTD | $9.77 | $7.82 | -20% |
PAGS has finished lower in three of the last six years. It's down 20% so far in 2026.