AAOI
Applied Optoelectronics, Inc.
AAOI's outlook is improving, though it still trails on the overall score.
NVMI
Nova Ltd.
NVMI has the edge over AAOI overall, supported by lower modeled downside and stronger fundamentals.
AAOI Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Under pressure | |
| Weak | |
| Unavailable |
AAOI's revenue is currently strong, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
NVMI Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Healthy | |
| Stable |
NVMI's revenue, profitability and cash flow are currently healthy, and its balance sheet is stable.
AAOI PE Valuation
AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year. If it returns to profit as analysts expect, today's price would be 18x next year's earnings.
NVMI PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 25x | $328 | — |
| Cheap | 26x | $211 | -36% |
| Fair | 39x | $313 | -4.5% |
| Current | 41x | $328 | — |
| Expensive | 54x | $433 | +32% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
NVMI's PE is in its fair range at 41x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 25x next year's earnings, in its cheap range.
AAOI Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Returning to profit | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect AAOI to return to profit, with revenue growing. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
NVMI Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect strong earnings and revenue growth for NVMI, with profitability improving.
AAOI Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $2.98 | — |
| Q3 2026 | -$0.42 | +$3.02 |
| Q2 2026 | -$0.77 | +$2.81 |
| Q1 2026 | -$0.65 | +$3.43 |
| Q4 2025 | -$0.64 | +$3.86 |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.44 | -$1.41 |
| Q2 2025 | -$3.58 | -$1.70 |
| Q1 2025 | -$4.08 | -$2.29 |
| Q4 2024 | -$4.50 | -$2.75 |
AAOI is still losing money, but far less than before: $0.42 per share over the past year, against $4.50 at its worst in late 2024.
NVMI Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $13.34 | +66% |
| Q2 2026 | $8.05 | +9.5% |
| Q1 2026 | $7.99 | +21% |
| Q4 2025 | $8.01 | +40% |
| Q3 2025 | $7.65 | +43% |
| Q2 2025 | $7.35 | +53% |
| Q1 2025 | $6.61 | +53% |
| Q4 2024 | $5.73 | +34% |
| Q3 2024 | $5.34 | +27% |
NVMI has the edge over AAOI on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
AAOI Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $269.9M | +127% |
| Q2 2026 | $191.9M | +86% |
| Q1 2026 | $151.1M | +51% |
| Q4 2025 | $134.3M | +34% |
| Q3 2025 | $118.6M | +82% |
| Q2 2025 | $103M | +138% |
| Q1 2025 | $99.9M | +146% |
| Q4 2024 | $100.3M | +66% |
AAOI has the edge over NVMI on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5% | +15 points |
| Q2 2026 | -13% | +2.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | -8.6% | +0.3 points |
| Q4 2025 | -8.6% | -2.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | -15% | +10 points |
| Q2 2025 | -16% | +45 points |
| Q1 2025 | -8.9% | +44 points |
| Q4 2024 | -6.5% | +1 points |
AAOI's operating margin was −0.5% last quarter, up 15 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the top of its range since 2019.
NVMI Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $255M | +16% |
| Q1 2026 | $235.3M | +10% |
| Q4 2025 | $222.6M | +14% |
| Q3 2025 | $224.6M | +25% |
| Q2 2025 | $220M | +40% |
| Q1 2025 | $213.4M | +50% |
| Q4 2024 | $194.8M | +45% |
| Q3 2024 | $179M | +39% |
NVMI's revenue has grown year over year for 10 quarters in a row: $255M last quarter, up 16% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 30% | 0 points |
| Q1 2026 | 30% | +0.5 points |
| Q4 2025 | 27% | -1.2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 28% | +0.9 points |
| Q2 2025 | 30% | +0.8 points |
| Q1 2025 | 30% | +3.4 points |
| Q4 2024 | 28% | +3.4 points |
| Q3 2024 | 28% | +1 points |
NVMI has the edge over AAOI on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
AAOI Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$369.9M | -$291.2M |
| Q2 2026 | -$265.3M | -$174.4M |
| Q1 2026 | -$143.6M | -$64.3M |
| Q4 2025 | -$104.6M | -$51.6M |
| Q3 2025 | -$78.7M | -$58M |
| Q2 2025 | -$91M | -$86M |
| Q1 2025 | -$79.3M | -$45.1M |
| Q4 2024 | -$53M | -$48.4M |
AAOI has burned cash in almost every quarter: −$883M over the past year, against −$302M the year before.
NVMI Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $38.4M | -10% |
| Q1 2026 | $36M | -40% |
| Q4 2025 | $48.4M | -21% |
| Q3 2025 | $66.9M | +55% |
| Q2 2025 | $42.9M | -26% |
| Q1 2025 | $59.7M | +5.3% |
| Q4 2024 | $61M | +191% |
| Q3 2024 | $43.1M | -0.2% |
NVMI has the edge over AAOI on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
AAOI Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +7.7% | +6.3M shares |
| 1 year | +39% | +24.5M shares |
| 3 years | +168% | +55.1M shares |
| 5 years | +224% | +60.7M shares |
| Available history | +340% | +67.9M shares |
AAOI has 88M diluted shares, up 39% from a year ago.
NVMI Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | 0% | +11K shares |
| 1 year | +7.5% | +2.4M shares |
| 3 years | +7.9% | +2.5M shares |
| 5 years | +16% | +4.6M shares |
| Available history | +21% | +6M shares |
NVMI has the edge over AAOI on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | $15M |
| Q3 2025 | $55M |
| Q2 2025 | $96,440 |
| Q1 2025 | $20M |
| Q4 2024 | $30M |
| Q3 2024 | — |
NVMI spent $70M buying back its own shares over the past year, up 40% from the year before.
AAOI Net Leverage
AAOI's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
NVMI Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 2.1x | Moderate |
| Q1 2026 | 1.1x | Healthy |
| Q4 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | 1.2x | Healthy |
| Q2 2025 | 0.2x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 0.4x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | 0.3x | Very low |
| Q3 2024 | 0.4x | Very low |
NVMI's net debt is about 2.1 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), up from less than a year a year ago.
AAOI Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 35.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 4.8 | Oversold |
AAOI's weekly RSI is 35 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 5 (oversold).
NVMI Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 39.5 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 21.0 | Neutral |
NVMI's weekly RSI is 39 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 21 (neutral).
AAOI PE vs Technology Sector
AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
NVMI PE vs Technology Sector
| Metric | NVMI | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 41x | 28x | 46% above |
| PE % | 56 | 35 | 21 pts above |
NVMI is trading at 41x earnings, a 46% premium to the Technology sector's median of 28x.
AAOI Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $80.2 | 34% below |
| 20 week MA | $100.6 | 47% below |
| 50 week MA | $100.3 | 47% below |
| 100 week MA | $62.3 | 15% below |
| 200 week MA | $36.9 | 43% above |
AAOI has fallen below most of its moving averages, though it's still 43% above its 200-week average.
NVMI Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $337.9 | 3% below |
| 20 week MA | $377.6 | 13% below |
| 50 week MA | $422.9 | 23% below |
| 100 week MA | $336.0 | 2.5% below |
| 200 week MA | $242.9 | 35% above |
NVMI has fallen below most of its moving averages, though it's still 35% above its 200-week average.
AAOI Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $11.5 | $8.77 | -24% |
| 2021 | $8.77 | $5.64 | -36% |
| 2022 | $5.64 | $1.95 | -65% |
| 2023 | $1.95 | $19.3 | +891% |
| 2024 | $19.3 | $37.7 | +95% |
| 2025 | $37.7 | $37.2 | -1.5% |
| 2026 YTD | $37.2 | $52.9 | +42% |
AAOI has the edge over NVMI on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
NVMI Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $38.1 | $70.3 | +85% |
| 2021 | $70.3 | $137.0 | +95% |
| 2022 | $137.0 | $81.7 | -40% |
| 2023 | $81.7 | $137.4 | +68% |
| 2024 | $137.4 | $200.1 | +46% |
| 2025 | $200.1 | $330.9 | +65% |
| 2026 YTD | $330.9 | $327.6 | -1% |
NVMI has finished higher in five of the last six years, four of them by more than 50%. It's down 1% so far in 2026.