AAOI
Applied Optoelectronics, Inc.
AAOI has a slight edge over MSI overall, supported by stronger modeled upside and stronger valuation.
MSI
Motorola Solutions, Inc.
MSI has lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
AAOI Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Under pressure | |
| Weak | |
| Unavailable |
AAOI's revenue is currently strong, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
MSI Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Stable |
MSI's revenue, profitability and cash flow are currently healthy, and its balance sheet is stable.
AAOI PE Valuation
AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year. If it returns to profit as analysts expect, today's price would be 18x next year's earnings.
MSI PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 31x | $385 | -27% |
| Fair | 35x | $434 | -18% |
| Expensive | 39x | $482 | -9.1% |
| Current | 43x | $530 | — |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MSI's PE is in its expensive range at 43x.
AAOI Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Returning to profit | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect AAOI to return to profit, with revenue growing. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
MSI Forward outlook
There aren't enough analyst estimates for MSI to show an outlook.
AAOI Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $2.98 | — |
| Q3 2026 | -$0.42 | +$3.02 |
| Q2 2026 | -$0.77 | +$2.81 |
| Q1 2026 | -$0.65 | +$3.43 |
| Q4 2025 | -$0.64 | +$3.86 |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.44 | -$1.41 |
| Q2 2025 | -$3.58 | -$1.70 |
| Q1 2025 | -$4.08 | -$2.29 |
| Q4 2024 | -$4.50 | -$2.75 |
AAOI is still losing money, but far less than before: $0.42 per share over the past year, against $4.50 at its worst in late 2024.
MSI Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $12.42 | -0.4% |
| Q2 2026 | $12.69 | +2.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $12.40 | +3.4% |
| Q4 2025 | $12.75 | +38% |
| Q3 2025 | $12.47 | +37% |
| Q2 2025 | $12.43 | +46% |
| Q1 2025 | $11.99 | +48% |
| Q4 2024 | $9.23 | -7% |
MSI has the edge over AAOI on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
AAOI Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $269.9M | +127% |
| Q2 2026 | $191.9M | +86% |
| Q1 2026 | $151.1M | +51% |
| Q4 2025 | $134.3M | +34% |
| Q3 2025 | $118.6M | +82% |
| Q2 2025 | $103M | +138% |
| Q1 2025 | $99.9M | +146% |
| Q4 2024 | $100.3M | +66% |
AAOI has the edge over MSI on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5% | +15 points |
| Q2 2026 | -13% | +2.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | -8.6% | +0.3 points |
| Q4 2025 | -8.6% | -2.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | -15% | +10 points |
| Q2 2025 | -16% | +45 points |
| Q1 2025 | -8.9% | +44 points |
| Q4 2024 | -6.5% | +1 points |
AAOI's operating margin was −0.5% last quarter, up 15 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the top of its range since 2019.
MSI Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.4B | +12% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.1B | +13% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.7B | +7.4% |
| Q4 2025 | $3.4B | +12% |
| Q3 2025 | $3B | +7.8% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.8B | +5.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $2.5B | +5.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $3B | +5.7% |
MSI's revenue has grown year over year for 23 quarters in a row: $3.4B last quarter, up 12% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 23% | -2.6 points |
| Q2 2026 | 26% | +0.8 points |
| Q1 2026 | 19% | -3.7 points |
| Q4 2025 | 28% | +0.9 points |
| Q3 2025 | 26% | +0.1 points |
| Q2 2025 | 25% | +0.5 points |
| Q1 2025 | 23% | +1.3 points |
| Q4 2024 | 27% | +1.1 points |
MSI has the edge over AAOI on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
AAOI Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$369.9M | -$291.2M |
| Q2 2026 | -$265.3M | -$174.4M |
| Q1 2026 | -$143.6M | -$64.3M |
| Q4 2025 | -$104.6M | -$51.6M |
| Q3 2025 | -$78.7M | -$58M |
| Q2 2025 | -$91M | -$86M |
| Q1 2025 | -$79.3M | -$45.1M |
| Q4 2024 | -$53M | -$48.4M |
AAOI has burned cash in almost every quarter: −$883M over the past year, against −$302M the year before.
MSI Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $589M | -20% |
| Q2 2026 | $414M | +84% |
| Q1 2026 | $389M | -18% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.1B | +16% |
| Q3 2025 | $732M | +4.3% |
| Q2 2025 | $225M | +101% |
| Q1 2025 | $473M | +41% |
| Q4 2024 | $984M | -15% |
MSI has the edge over AAOI on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
AAOI Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +7.7% | +6.3M shares |
| 1 year | +39% | +24.5M shares |
| 3 years | +168% | +55.1M shares |
| 5 years | +224% | +60.7M shares |
| Available history | +340% | +67.9M shares |
AAOI has 88M diluted shares, up 39% from a year ago.
MSI Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.1% | +200K shares |
| 1 year | -0.9% | -1.6M shares |
| 3 years | -2.5% | -4.3M shares |
| 5 years | -3.8% | -6.7M shares |
| Available history | -4.7% | -8.2M shares |
MSI has the edge over AAOI on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $94M |
| Q2 2026 | $331M |
| Q1 2026 | $118M |
| Q4 2025 | $490M |
| Q3 2025 | $121M |
| Q2 2025 | $218M |
| Q1 2025 | $325M |
| Q4 2024 | $103M |
MSI spent $1B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 35% from the year before.
AAOI Net Leverage
AAOI's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
MSI Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 2.6x | Moderate |
| Q2 2026 | 2.3x | Moderate |
| Q1 2026 | 2.4x | Moderate |
| Q4 2025 | 2.3x | Moderate |
| Q3 2025 | 2.6x | Moderate |
| Q2 2025 | 1.4x | Healthy |
| Q1 2025 | 1.4x | Healthy |
| Q4 2024 | 1.3x | Healthy |
MSI's net debt is about 2.6 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), about the same as a year ago.
AAOI Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 35.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 4.8 | Oversold |
AAOI's weekly RSI is 35 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 5 (oversold).
MSI Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 72.9 | Overbought |
| Stochastic | 81.5 | Overbought |
MSI's weekly RSI is 73 (overbought) and its Stochastic is 82 (overbought).
AAOI PE vs Technology Sector
AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
MSI PE vs Technology Sector
| Metric | MSI | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 43x | 28x | 53% above |
| PE % | 86 | 35 | 51 pts above |
MSI is trading at 43x earnings, a 53% premium to the Technology sector's median of 28x.
AAOI Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $80.2 | 34% below |
| 20 week MA | $100.6 | 47% below |
| 50 week MA | $100.3 | 47% below |
| 100 week MA | $62.3 | 15% below |
| 200 week MA | $36.9 | 43% above |
AAOI has fallen below most of its moving averages, though it's still 43% above its 200-week average.
MSI Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $478.7 | 11% above |
| 20 week MA | $461.8 | 15% above |
| 50 week MA | $434.8 | 22% above |
| 100 week MA | $434.6 | 22% above |
| 200 week MA | $387.3 | 37% above |
MSI has the edge over AAOI on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
AAOI Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $11.5 | $8.77 | -24% |
| 2021 | $8.77 | $5.64 | -36% |
| 2022 | $5.64 | $1.95 | -65% |
| 2023 | $1.95 | $19.3 | +891% |
| 2024 | $19.3 | $37.7 | +95% |
| 2025 | $37.7 | $37.2 | -1.5% |
| 2026 YTD | $37.2 | $52.9 | +42% |
AAOI has the edge over MSI on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
MSI Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $161.5 | $168.5 | +4.3% |
| 2021 | $168.5 | $262.9 | +56% |
| 2022 | $262.9 | $256.6 | -2.4% |
| 2023 | $256.6 | $313.1 | +22% |
| 2024 | $313.1 | $467.3 | +49% |
| 2025 | $467.3 | $377.0 | -19% |
| 2026 YTD | $377.0 | $530.4 | +41% |
MSI has finished higher in four of the last six years. It's up 41% so far in 2026.