AAOI
Applied Optoelectronics, Inc.
AAOI offers stronger valuation, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
MCHP
Microchip Technology Incorporated
MCHP has the edge over AAOI overall, supported by lower modeled downside and stronger fundamentals.
AAOI Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Under pressure | |
| Weak | |
| Unavailable |
AAOI's revenue is currently strong, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
MCHP Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Stable |
MCHP's revenue, profitability and cash flow are currently strong, and its balance sheet is stable.
AAOI PE Valuation
AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year. If it returns to profit as analysts expect, today's price would be 18x next year's earnings.
MCHP PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 15x | $62.08 | — |
| Cheap | 21x | $28.42 | -54% |
| Fair | 40x | $53.17 | -14% |
| Current | 47x | $62.08 | — |
| Expensive | 104x | $138 | +122% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MCHP's PE is in its fair range at 47x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 15x next year's earnings, in its cheap range.
AAOI Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Returning to profit | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect AAOI to return to profit, with revenue growing. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
MCHP Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect strong earnings and revenue growth for MCHP, with profitability improving.
AAOI Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $2.98 | — |
| Q3 2026 | -$0.42 | +$3.02 |
| Q2 2026 | -$0.77 | +$2.81 |
| Q1 2026 | -$0.65 | +$3.43 |
| Q4 2025 | -$0.64 | +$3.86 |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.44 | -$1.41 |
| Q2 2025 | -$3.58 | -$1.70 |
| Q1 2025 | -$4.08 | -$2.29 |
| Q4 2024 | -$4.50 | -$2.75 |
AAOI is still losing money, but far less than before: $0.42 per share over the past year, against $4.50 at its worst in late 2024.
MCHP Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $4.02 | +202% |
| Q3 2026 | $1.33 | +$1.78 |
| Q2 2026 | $0.68 | +$1.02 |
| Q1 2026 | $0.22 | +$0.23 |
| Q4 2025 | -$0.29 | -151% |
| Q3 2025 | -$0.45 | -131% |
| Q2 2025 | -$0.34 | -114% |
| Q1 2025 | -$0.01 | -100% |
| Q4 2024 | $0.57 | -87% |
MCHP has the edge over AAOI on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
AAOI Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $269.9M | +127% |
| Q2 2026 | $191.9M | +86% |
| Q1 2026 | $151.1M | +51% |
| Q4 2025 | $134.3M | +34% |
| Q3 2025 | $118.6M | +82% |
| Q2 2025 | $103M | +138% |
| Q1 2025 | $99.9M | +146% |
| Q4 2024 | $100.3M | +66% |
AAOI has the edge over MCHP on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5% | +15 points |
| Q2 2026 | -13% | +2.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | -8.6% | +0.3 points |
| Q4 2025 | -8.6% | -2.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | -15% | +10 points |
| Q2 2025 | -16% | +45 points |
| Q1 2025 | -8.9% | +44 points |
| Q4 2024 | -6.5% | +1 points |
AAOI's operating margin was −0.5% last quarter, up 15 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the top of its range since 2019.
MCHP Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.6B | +42% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.5B | +38% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.3B | +35% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.2B | +16% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.1B | -2% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.1B | -13% |
| Q1 2025 | $970.5M | -27% |
| Q4 2024 | $1B | -42% |
MCHP's revenue is recovering but still below its 2023 peak: $1.6B last quarter, up 42% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 29% | +21 points |
| Q2 2026 | 23% | +20 points |
| Q1 2026 | 17% | +27 points |
| Q4 2025 | 13% | +9.8 points |
| Q3 2025 | 7.8% | -4.8 points |
| Q2 2025 | 3% | -15 points |
| Q1 2025 | -10% | -30 points |
| Q4 2024 | 3% | -27 points |
MCHP has the edge over AAOI on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
AAOI Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$369.9M | -$291.2M |
| Q2 2026 | -$265.3M | -$174.4M |
| Q1 2026 | -$143.6M | -$64.3M |
| Q4 2025 | -$104.6M | -$51.6M |
| Q3 2025 | -$78.7M | -$58M |
| Q2 2025 | -$91M | -$86M |
| Q1 2025 | -$79.3M | -$45.1M |
| Q4 2024 | -$53M | -$48.4M |
AAOI has burned cash in almost every quarter: −$883M over the past year, against −$302M the year before.
MCHP Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $396.1M | +668% |
| Q2 2026 | $497.6M | +93% |
| Q1 2026 | $242.8M | +27% |
| Q4 2025 | $318.9M | +26% |
| Q3 2025 | $51.6M | +126% |
| Q2 2025 | $257.7M | -15% |
| Q1 2025 | $191.7M | -51% |
| Q4 2024 | $253.4M | -68% |
MCHP has the edge over AAOI on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
AAOI Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +7.7% | +6.3M shares |
| 1 year | +39% | +24.5M shares |
| 3 years | +168% | +55.1M shares |
| 5 years | +224% | +60.7M shares |
| Available history | +340% | +67.9M shares |
AAOI has 88M diluted shares, up 39% from a year ago.
MCHP Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | 0% | +100K shares |
| 1 year | +1% | +5.6M shares |
| 3 years | +0.3% | +1.4M shares |
| 5 years | -2.7% | -15.3M shares |
| Available history | +6.6% | +34M shares |
MCHP has the edge over AAOI on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | $6.5M |
| Q3 2024 | $17.3M |
| Q2 2024 | $72.7M |
AAOI Net Leverage
AAOI's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
MCHP Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 2.8x | Moderate |
| Q2 2026 | 3.5x | Elevated |
| Q1 2026 | 4.5x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 5.9x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 6.7x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 5.8x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 4.6x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 4.3x | High |
MCHP's net debt is about 2.8 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 6.7 years a year ago.
AAOI Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 35.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 4.8 | Oversold |
AAOI's weekly RSI is 35 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 5 (oversold).
MCHP Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 38.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 28.2 | Neutral |
MCHP's weekly RSI is 39 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 28 (neutral).
AAOI PE vs Technology Sector
AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
MCHP PE vs Technology Sector
| Metric | MCHP | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 47x | 28x | 68% above |
| PE % | 61 | 35 | 26 pts above |
MCHP is trading at 47x earnings, a 68% premium to the Technology sector's median of 28x.
AAOI Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $80.2 | 34% below |
| 20 week MA | $100.6 | 47% below |
| 50 week MA | $100.3 | 47% below |
| 100 week MA | $62.3 | 15% below |
| 200 week MA | $36.9 | 43% above |
AAOI has the edge over MCHP on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
MCHP Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $72.7 | 15% below |
| 20 week MA | $76.2 | 18% below |
| 50 week MA | $77.2 | 20% below |
| 100 week MA | $68.2 | 9% below |
| 200 week MA | $75.2 | 17% below |
MCHP is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 17% below its 200-week average.
AAOI Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $11.5 | $8.77 | -24% |
| 2021 | $8.77 | $5.64 | -36% |
| 2022 | $5.64 | $1.95 | -65% |
| 2023 | $1.95 | $19.3 | +891% |
| 2024 | $19.3 | $37.7 | +95% |
| 2025 | $37.7 | $37.2 | -1.5% |
| 2026 YTD | $37.2 | $52.9 | +42% |
AAOI has the edge over MCHP on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
MCHP Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $52.7 | $68.4 | +30% |
| 2021 | $68.4 | $86.9 | +27% |
| 2022 | $86.9 | $69.9 | -20% |
| 2023 | $69.9 | $90.2 | +29% |
| 2024 | $90.2 | $58.3 | -35% |
| 2025 | $58.3 | $64.9 | +11% |
| 2026 YTD | $64.9 | $62.1 | -4.4% |
MCHP has finished higher in four of the last six years. It's down 4.4% so far in 2026.