AAOI
Applied Optoelectronics, Inc.
AAOI has a slight edge over LDOS overall, supported by stronger modeled upside and stronger fundamentals.
LDOS
Leidos Holdings, Inc.
LDOS has lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
AAOI Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Under pressure | |
| Weak | |
| Unavailable |
AAOI's revenue is currently strong, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
LDOS Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Stable |
LDOS's profitability and cash flow are currently healthy, and its revenue and balance sheet are stable.
AAOI PE Valuation
AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year. If it returns to profit as analysts expect, today's price would be 18x next year's earnings.
LDOS PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 11x | $131 | — |
| Current | 12x | $131 | — |
| Cheap | 16x | $180 | +37% |
| Fair | 19x | $218 | +66% |
| Expensive | 25x | $277 | +111% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
LDOS's PE is in its cheap range at 12x. On analysts' estimates for next year's earnings, today's price would be 11x.
AAOI Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Returning to profit | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
AAOI has the edge over LDOS on the outlook, with more favorable earnings and revenue expectations.
LDOS Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect LDOS's earnings, revenue and profitability to hold roughly steady.
AAOI Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $2.98 | — |
| Q3 2026 | -$0.42 | +$3.02 |
| Q2 2026 | -$0.77 | +$2.81 |
| Q1 2026 | -$0.65 | +$3.43 |
| Q4 2025 | -$0.64 | +$3.86 |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.44 | -$1.41 |
| Q2 2025 | -$3.58 | -$1.70 |
| Q1 2025 | -$4.08 | -$2.29 |
| Q4 2024 | -$4.50 | -$2.75 |
AAOI is still losing money, but far less than before: $0.42 per share over the past year, against $4.50 at its worst in late 2024.
LDOS Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $11.56 | +3.3% |
| Q3 2026 | $11.19 | +4.6% |
| Q2 2026 | $10.73 | +1.6% |
| Q1 2026 | $10.93 | +10% |
| Q4 2025 | $11.14 | +21% |
| Q3 2025 | $10.70 | +22% |
| Q2 2025 | $10.56 | +229% |
| Q1 2025 | $9.92 | +324% |
| Q4 2024 | $9.22 | +540% |
LDOS has the edge over AAOI on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
AAOI Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $269.9M | +127% |
| Q2 2026 | $191.9M | +86% |
| Q1 2026 | $151.1M | +51% |
| Q4 2025 | $134.3M | +34% |
| Q3 2025 | $118.6M | +82% |
| Q2 2025 | $103M | +138% |
| Q1 2025 | $99.9M | +146% |
| Q4 2024 | $100.3M | +66% |
AAOI has the edge over LDOS on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5% | +15 points |
| Q2 2026 | -13% | +2.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | -8.6% | +0.3 points |
| Q4 2025 | -8.6% | -2.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | -15% | +10 points |
| Q2 2025 | -16% | +45 points |
| Q1 2025 | -8.9% | +44 points |
| Q4 2024 | -6.5% | +1 points |
AAOI's operating margin was −0.5% last quarter, up 15 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the top of its range since 2019.
LDOS Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $4.6B | +3.6% |
| Q2 2026 | $4.6B | +7.2% |
| Q1 2026 | $4.4B | +3.7% |
| Q4 2025 | $4.2B | -3.6% |
| Q3 2025 | $4.5B | +6.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $4.3B | +2.9% |
| Q1 2025 | $4.2B | +6.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $4.4B | +9.7% |
LDOS's revenue grew through 2025 and has held roughly level since: $4.6B last quarter, up 3.6% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 12% | 0 points |
| Q2 2026 | 11% | -2.2 points |
| Q1 2026 | 12% | -0.9 points |
| Q4 2025 | 11% | +1.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 12% | -0.3 points |
| Q2 2025 | 13% | +1.9 points |
| Q1 2025 | 12% | +2.1 points |
| Q4 2024 | 9.6% | +0.6 points |
LDOS has the edge over AAOI on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
AAOI Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$369.9M | -$291.2M |
| Q2 2026 | -$265.3M | -$174.4M |
| Q1 2026 | -$143.6M | -$64.3M |
| Q4 2025 | -$104.6M | -$51.6M |
| Q3 2025 | -$78.7M | -$58M |
| Q2 2025 | -$91M | -$86M |
| Q1 2025 | -$79.3M | -$45.1M |
| Q4 2024 | -$53M | -$48.4M |
AAOI has burned cash in almost every quarter: −$883M over the past year, against −$302M the year before.
LDOS Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $476M | -30% |
| Q2 2026 | $761M | +67% |
| Q1 2026 | $270M | +650% |
| Q4 2025 | $452M | +112% |
| Q3 2025 | $680M | +7.4% |
| Q2 2025 | $457M | +30% |
| Q1 2025 | $36M | -22% |
| Q4 2024 | $213M | -5.8% |
LDOS has the edge over AAOI on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
AAOI Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +7.7% | +6.3M shares |
| 1 year | +39% | +24.5M shares |
| 3 years | +168% | +55.1M shares |
| 5 years | +224% | +60.7M shares |
| Available history | +340% | +67.9M shares |
AAOI has 88M diluted shares, up 39% from a year ago.
LDOS Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.8% | -1M shares |
| 1 year | -3.8% | -5M shares |
| 3 years | -8.8% | -12M shares |
| 5 years | -13% | -18M shares |
| Available history | -14% | -20M shares |
LDOS has the edge over AAOI on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $500M |
| Q2 2026 | $66M |
| Q1 2026 | $200M |
| Q4 2025 | $300M |
| Q3 2025 | $100M |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | $400M |
LDOS spent $1.1B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 113% from the year before.
AAOI Net Leverage
AAOI's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
LDOS Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 2.3x | Moderate |
| Q2 2026 | 2.3x | Moderate |
| Q1 2026 | 2.5x | Moderate |
| Q4 2025 | 1.5x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | 1.6x | Healthy |
| Q2 2025 | 1.8x | Healthy |
| Q1 2025 | 1.9x | Healthy |
| Q4 2024 | 1.8x | Healthy |
LDOS's net debt is about 2.3 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), up from 1.6 years a year ago.
AAOI Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 35.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 4.8 | Oversold |
AAOI's weekly RSI is 35 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 5 (oversold).
LDOS Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 48.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 66.9 | Neutral |
LDOS's weekly RSI is 49 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 67 (neutral).
AAOI PE vs Technology Sector
AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
LDOS PE vs Technology Sector
| Metric | LDOS | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 12x | 28x | 58% below |
| PE % | 4 | 35 | 31 pts below |
LDOS is trading at 12x earnings, a 58% discount to the Technology sector's median of 28x.
AAOI Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $80.2 | 34% below |
| 20 week MA | $100.6 | 47% below |
| 50 week MA | $100.3 | 47% below |
| 100 week MA | $62.3 | 15% below |
| 200 week MA | $36.9 | 43% above |
AAOI has fallen below most of its moving averages, though it's still 43% above its 200-week average.
LDOS Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $128.8 | 1.8% above |
| 20 week MA | $126.7 | 3.5% above |
| 50 week MA | $147.1 | 11% below |
| 100 week MA | $153.6 | 15% below |
| 200 week MA | $136.5 | 3.9% below |
LDOS has the edge over AAOI on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
AAOI Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $11.5 | $8.77 | -24% |
| 2021 | $8.77 | $5.64 | -36% |
| 2022 | $5.64 | $1.95 | -65% |
| 2023 | $1.95 | $19.3 | +891% |
| 2024 | $19.3 | $37.7 | +95% |
| 2025 | $37.7 | $37.2 | -1.5% |
| 2026 YTD | $37.2 | $52.9 | +42% |
AAOI has the edge over LDOS on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
LDOS Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $98.2 | $104.2 | +6.1% |
| 2021 | $104.2 | $87.4 | -16% |
| 2022 | $87.4 | $105.2 | +20% |
| 2023 | $105.2 | $108.2 | +2.9% |
| 2024 | $108.2 | $144.5 | +33% |
| 2025 | $144.5 | $185.9 | +29% |
| 2026 YTD | $185.9 | $131.1 | -29% |
LDOS has finished higher in five of the last six years. It's down 29% so far in 2026.