AAOI
Applied Optoelectronics, Inc.
AAOI has a slight edge over IPGP overall, supported by stronger valuation.
IPGP
IPG Photonics Corporation
IPGP has lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
AAOI Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Under pressure | |
| Weak | |
| Unavailable |
AAOI's revenue is currently strong, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
IPGP Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Stable | |
| Strong |
IPGP's revenue, profitability and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its cash flow is stable.
AAOI PE Valuation
AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year. If it returns to profit as analysts expect, today's price would be 18x next year's earnings.
IPGP PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 21x | $19.24 | -73% |
| Forward | 35x | $70.86 | — |
| Fair | 47x | $43.25 | -39% |
| Current | 76x | $70.86 | — |
| Expensive | 111x | $103 | +46% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
IPGP's PE is in its expensive range at 76x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 35x next year's earnings, in its fair range.
AAOI Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Returning to profit | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect AAOI to return to profit, with revenue growing. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
IPGP Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for IPGP, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
AAOI Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $2.98 | — |
| Q3 2026 | -$0.42 | +$3.02 |
| Q2 2026 | -$0.77 | +$2.81 |
| Q1 2026 | -$0.65 | +$3.43 |
| Q4 2025 | -$0.64 | +$3.86 |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.44 | -$1.41 |
| Q2 2025 | -$3.58 | -$1.70 |
| Q1 2025 | -$4.08 | -$2.29 |
| Q4 2024 | -$4.50 | -$2.75 |
AAOI is still losing money, but far less than before: $0.42 per share over the past year, against $4.50 at its worst in late 2024.
IPGP Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $2.03 | +118% |
| Q3 2026 | $0.93 | +33% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.64 | +$5.45 |
| Q1 2026 | $0.68 | +$5.20 |
| Q4 2025 | $0.73 | +$4.82 |
| Q3 2025 | $0.70 | +$4.16 |
| Q2 2025 | -$4.81 | -259% |
| Q1 2025 | -$4.52 | -216% |
| Q4 2024 | -$4.09 | -188% |
IPGP has the edge over AAOI on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
AAOI Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $269.9M | +127% |
| Q2 2026 | $191.9M | +86% |
| Q1 2026 | $151.1M | +51% |
| Q4 2025 | $134.3M | +34% |
| Q3 2025 | $118.6M | +82% |
| Q2 2025 | $103M | +138% |
| Q1 2025 | $99.9M | +146% |
| Q4 2024 | $100.3M | +66% |
AAOI has the edge over IPGP on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5% | +15 points |
| Q2 2026 | -13% | +2.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | -8.6% | +0.3 points |
| Q4 2025 | -8.6% | -2.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | -15% | +10 points |
| Q2 2025 | -16% | +45 points |
| Q1 2025 | -8.9% | +44 points |
| Q4 2024 | -6.5% | +1 points |
AAOI's operating margin was −0.5% last quarter, up 15 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the top of its range since 2019.
IPGP Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $287.5M | +15% |
| Q2 2026 | $278.6M | +11% |
| Q1 2026 | $265.5M | +17% |
| Q4 2025 | $274.5M | +17% |
| Q3 2025 | $250.8M | +7.6% |
| Q2 2025 | $250.7M | -2.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $227.8M | -9.6% |
| Q4 2024 | $234.3M | -22% |
IPGP's revenue is recovering but still below its 2021 peak: $288M last quarter, up 15% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 7.2% | +4.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 1.6% | +1.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | -2.9% | -3.7 points |
| Q4 2025 | 1.2% | -4.7 points |
| Q3 2025 | 3.1% | +112 points |
| Q2 2025 | 0% | -4.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 0.8% | -6.8 points |
| Q4 2024 | 6% | -3.7 points |
IPGP has the edge over AAOI on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
AAOI Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$369.9M | -$291.2M |
| Q2 2026 | -$265.3M | -$174.4M |
| Q1 2026 | -$143.6M | -$64.3M |
| Q4 2025 | -$104.6M | -$51.6M |
| Q3 2025 | -$78.7M | -$58M |
| Q2 2025 | -$91M | -$86M |
| Q1 2025 | -$79.3M | -$45.1M |
| Q4 2024 | -$53M | -$48.4M |
AAOI has burned cash in almost every quarter: −$883M over the past year, against −$302M the year before.
IPGP Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $28.8M | +98% |
| Q2 2026 | $17.1M | +$34.7M |
| Q1 2026 | -$21.8M | -$10.4M |
| Q4 2025 | $10.9M | -78% |
| Q3 2025 | $14.6M | -66% |
| Q2 2025 | -$17.6M | -160% |
| Q1 2025 | -$11.4M | -143% |
| Q4 2024 | $50.6M | -37% |
IPGP has the edge over AAOI on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
AAOI Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +7.7% | +6.3M shares |
| 1 year | +39% | +24.5M shares |
| 3 years | +168% | +55.1M shares |
| 5 years | +224% | +60.7M shares |
| Available history | +340% | +67.9M shares |
AAOI has 88M diluted shares, up 39% from a year ago.
IPGP Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.2% | -72.9K shares |
| 1 year | +0.7% | +284K shares |
| 3 years | -9.6% | -4.5M shares |
| 5 years | -20% | -11M shares |
| Available history | -20% | -11M shares |
IPGP has the edge over AAOI on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $2.6M |
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2024 | $57.3M |
| Q3 2024 | $74.5M |
| Q2 2024 | $122.4M |
| Q1 2024 | $89.6M |
| Q4 2023 | $64M |
AAOI Net Leverage
AAOI's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
IPGP Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -8.1x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -5.3x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -6.8x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -5.1x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -4.1x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2024 | -4.0x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2024 | -2.0x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2023 | -1.7x | Net Cash |
IPGP has more cash than debt.
AAOI Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 35.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 4.8 | Oversold |
AAOI's weekly RSI is 35 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 5 (oversold).
IPGP Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 39.4 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 17.8 | Oversold |
IPGP's weekly RSI is 39 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 18 (oversold).
AAOI PE vs Technology Sector
AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
IPGP PE vs Technology Sector
| Metric | IPGP | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 76x | 28x | 173% above |
| PE % | 76 | 35 | 41 pts above |
IPGP is trading at 76x earnings, a 173% premium to the Technology sector's median of 28x.
AAOI Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $80.2 | 34% below |
| 20 week MA | $100.6 | 47% below |
| 50 week MA | $100.3 | 47% below |
| 100 week MA | $62.3 | 15% below |
| 200 week MA | $36.9 | 43% above |
AAOI has the edge over IPGP on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
IPGP Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $73.9 | 4.1% below |
| 20 week MA | $82.3 | 14% below |
| 50 week MA | $97.2 | 27% below |
| 100 week MA | $84.6 | 16% below |
| 200 week MA | $90.9 | 22% below |
IPGP is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 22% below its 200-week average.
AAOI Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $11.5 | $8.77 | -24% |
| 2021 | $8.77 | $5.64 | -36% |
| 2022 | $5.64 | $1.95 | -65% |
| 2023 | $1.95 | $19.3 | +891% |
| 2024 | $19.3 | $37.7 | +95% |
| 2025 | $37.7 | $37.2 | -1.5% |
| 2026 YTD | $37.2 | $52.9 | +42% |
AAOI has the edge over IPGP on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
IPGP Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $143.9 | $221.0 | +54% |
| 2021 | $221.0 | $168.9 | -24% |
| 2022 | $168.9 | $92.9 | -45% |
| 2023 | $92.9 | $108.5 | +17% |
| 2024 | $108.5 | $73.4 | -32% |
| 2025 | $73.4 | $75.2 | +2.4% |
| 2026 YTD | $75.2 | $70.9 | -5.7% |
IPGP has finished lower in three of the last six years. It's down 5.7% so far in 2026.