AAOI
Applied Optoelectronics, Inc.
AAOI has the edge over FOUR overall, supported by stronger modeled upside and stronger fundamentals.
FOUR
Shift4 Payments, Inc.
FOUR has lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
AAOI Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Under pressure | |
| Weak | |
| Unavailable |
AAOI's revenue is currently strong, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
FOUR Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Weak |
FOUR's revenue, profitability and cash flow are currently healthy, but its balance sheet is weak.
AAOI PE Valuation
AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year. If it returns to profit as analysts expect, today's price would be 18x next year's earnings.
FOUR PE Valuation
FOUR has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
AAOI Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Returning to profit | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
AAOI has the edge over FOUR on the outlook, with more favorable profitability expectations.
FOUR Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Stable | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for FOUR, with profitability holding steady. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
AAOI Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $2.98 | — |
| Q3 2026 | -$0.42 | +$3.02 |
| Q2 2026 | -$0.77 | +$2.81 |
| Q1 2026 | -$0.65 | +$3.43 |
| Q4 2025 | -$0.64 | +$3.86 |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.44 | -$1.41 |
| Q2 2025 | -$3.58 | -$1.70 |
| Q1 2025 | -$4.08 | -$2.29 |
| Q4 2024 | -$4.50 | -$2.75 |
FOUR has the stronger earnings trend. Trailing diluted EPS is down 112% for AAOI versus FOUR up 5%.
FOUR Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $7.29 | +331% |
| Q3 2024 | $1.69 | +5% |
| Q2 2024 | $1.64 | +3.1% |
| Q1 2024 | $1.48 | +14% |
| Q4 2023 | $1.36 | +37% |
| Q3 2023 | $1.61 | +360% |
| Q2 2023 | $1.59 | +$1.94 |
| Q1 2023 | $1.30 | +$1.73 |
| Q4 2022 | $0.99 | +$1.91 |
FOUR's earnings per share have climbed steadily: $1.69 over the past year, up 5% from the year before, and higher year over year every quarter since early 2022.
AAOI Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $269.9M | +127% |
| Q2 2026 | $191.9M | +86% |
| Q1 2026 | $151.1M | +51% |
| Q4 2025 | $134.3M | +34% |
| Q3 2025 | $118.6M | +82% |
| Q2 2025 | $103M | +138% |
| Q1 2025 | $99.9M | +146% |
| Q4 2024 | $100.3M | +66% |
AAOI has the edge over FOUR on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5% | +15 points |
| Q2 2026 | -13% | +2.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | -8.6% | +0.3 points |
| Q4 2025 | -8.6% | -2.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | -15% | +10 points |
| Q2 2025 | -16% | +45 points |
| Q1 2025 | -8.9% | +44 points |
| Q4 2024 | -6.5% | +1 points |
AAOI's operating margin was −0.5% last quarter, up 15 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the top of its range since 2019.
FOUR Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.3B | +12% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.3B | +34% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.1B | +32% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.2B | +34% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.2B | +29% |
| Q2 2025 | $966.2M | +17% |
| Q1 2025 | $848.3M | +20% |
| Q4 2024 | $887M | +26% |
FOUR's revenue has grown year over year every quarter since early 2021: $1.3B last quarter, up 12% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 9.9% | +0.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 7.3% | -1.3 points |
| Q1 2026 | 4.5% | +1.5 points |
| Q4 2025 | 11% | +1.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 9.7% | +0.9 points |
| Q2 2025 | 8.6% | +1.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 3% | 0 points |
| Q4 2024 | 9.7% | +5.8 points |
FOUR has the edge over AAOI on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
AAOI Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$369.9M | -$291.2M |
| Q2 2026 | -$265.3M | -$174.4M |
| Q1 2026 | -$143.6M | -$64.3M |
| Q4 2025 | -$104.6M | -$51.6M |
| Q3 2025 | -$78.7M | -$58M |
| Q2 2025 | -$91M | -$86M |
| Q1 2025 | -$79.3M | -$45.1M |
| Q4 2024 | -$53M | -$48.4M |
AAOI has burned cash in almost every quarter: −$883M over the past year, against −$302M the year before.
FOUR Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $216M | -21% |
| Q2 2026 | $57M | -39% |
| Q1 2026 | $128M | +186% |
| Q4 2025 | $222.5M | +55% |
| Q3 2025 | $272.5M | +3.4% |
| Q2 2025 | $93M | +24% |
| Q1 2025 | $44.8M | -50% |
| Q4 2024 | $143.8M | +97% |
FOUR has the edge over AAOI on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
AAOI Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +7.7% | +6.3M shares |
| 1 year | +39% | +24.5M shares |
| 3 years | +168% | +55.1M shares |
| 5 years | +224% | +60.7M shares |
| Available history | +340% | +67.9M shares |
AAOI has 88M diluted shares, up 39% from a year ago.
FOUR Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -5.1% | -4M shares |
| 1 year | -16% | -14.3M shares |
| 3 years | -11% | -9.5M shares |
| 5 years | -7.4% | -6M shares |
FOUR has the edge over AAOI on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $190M |
| Q2 2026 | $26M |
| Q1 2026 | $295M |
| Q4 2025 | $304.8M |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q2 2025 | $85.3M |
| Q1 2025 | $62.9M |
| Q4 2024 | $110M |
FOUR spent $816M buying back its own shares over the past year, about three times what it spent the year before.
AAOI Net Leverage
AAOI's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
FOUR Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 4.5x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 4.6x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 4.7x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 4.5x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 4.6x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 2.0x | Moderate |
| Q1 2025 | 5.5x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 5.6x | High |
FOUR's net debt is about 4.5 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), about the same as a year ago.
AAOI Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 35.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 4.8 | Oversold |
AAOI's weekly RSI is 35 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 5 (oversold).
FOUR Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 46.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 33.7 | Neutral |
FOUR's weekly RSI is 46 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 34 (neutral).
AAOI PE vs Technology Sector
AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
FOUR PE vs Technology Sector
| Metric | FOUR | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | N/A | 28x | — |
FOUR has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
AAOI Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $80.2 | 34% below |
| 20 week MA | $100.6 | 47% below |
| 50 week MA | $100.3 | 47% below |
| 100 week MA | $62.3 | 15% below |
| 200 week MA | $36.9 | 43% above |
AAOI has fallen below most of its moving averages, though it's still 43% above its 200-week average.
FOUR Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $39.8 | 4.3% above |
| 20 week MA | $44.0 | 5.7% below |
| 50 week MA | $48.5 | 14% below |
| 100 week MA | $69.7 | 40% below |
| 200 week MA | $70.3 | 41% below |
FOUR has bounced recently, but its long-term trend is still down: it's above its 8-week average, but 41% below its 200-week average.
AAOI Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $11.5 | $8.77 | -24% |
| 2021 | $8.77 | $5.64 | -36% |
| 2022 | $5.64 | $1.95 | -65% |
| 2023 | $1.95 | $19.3 | +891% |
| 2024 | $19.3 | $37.7 | +95% |
| 2025 | $37.7 | $37.2 | -1.5% |
| 2026 YTD | $37.2 | $52.9 | +42% |
AAOI has the edge over FOUR on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
FOUR Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $33.5 | $71.8 | +114% |
| 2021 | $71.8 | $59.2 | -18% |
| 2022 | $59.2 | $54.1 | -8.6% |
| 2023 | $54.1 | $74.3 | +38% |
| 2024 | $74.3 | $104.7 | +41% |
| 2025 | $104.7 | $65.2 | -38% |
| 2026 YTD | $65.2 | $41.5 | -36% |
FOUR has finished lower in three of the last six years. It's down 36% so far in 2026.