AAOI
Applied Optoelectronics, Inc.
AAOI offers stronger modeled upside, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
ERIC
Telefonaktiebolaget LM Ericsson (publ)
ERIC has a slight edge over AAOI overall, supported by lower modeled downside.
AAOI Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Under pressure | |
| Weak | |
| Unavailable |
AAOI's revenue is currently strong, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
ERIC Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Strong |
ERIC's profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its revenue is stable.
AAOI PE Valuation
AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year. If it returns to profit as analysts expect, today's price would be 18x next year's earnings.
ERIC PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 11x | $6.18 | -42% |
| Fair | 15x | $8.58 | -19% |
| Current | 18x | $10.61 | — |
| Expensive | 132x | $76.83 | +624% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
ERIC's PE is 18x, but its earnings don't support one, so it isn't a reliable read right now.
AAOI Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Returning to profit | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
AAOI has the edge over ERIC on the outlook, with more favorable revenue expectations.
ERIC Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Strong growth | |
| Stable | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect ERIC's earnings to grow and its profitability to improve, with its revenue holding steady. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
AAOI Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $2.98 | — |
| Q3 2026 | -$0.42 | +$3.02 |
| Q2 2026 | -$0.77 | +$2.81 |
| Q1 2026 | -$0.65 | +$3.43 |
| Q4 2025 | -$0.64 | +$3.86 |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.44 | -$1.41 |
| Q2 2025 | -$3.58 | -$1.70 |
| Q1 2025 | -$4.08 | -$2.29 |
| Q4 2024 | -$4.50 | -$2.75 |
AAOI is still losing money, but far less than before: $0.42 per share over the past year, against $4.50 at its worst in late 2024.
ERIC Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $0.58 | -21% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.74 | +45% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.75 | +1775% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.84 | +8300% |
| Q3 2025 | $0.73 | +$0.77 |
| Q2 2025 | $0.51 | +$1.60 |
| Q1 2025 | $0.04 | +$0.82 |
| Q4 2024 | $0.01 | +$0.83 |
ERIC has the edge over AAOI on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
AAOI Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $269.9M | +127% |
| Q2 2026 | $191.9M | +86% |
| Q1 2026 | $151.1M | +51% |
| Q4 2025 | $134.3M | +34% |
| Q3 2025 | $118.6M | +82% |
| Q2 2025 | $103M | +138% |
| Q1 2025 | $99.9M | +146% |
| Q4 2024 | $100.3M | +66% |
AAOI has the edge over ERIC on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5% | +15 points |
| Q2 2026 | -13% | +2.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | -8.6% | +0.3 points |
| Q4 2025 | -8.6% | -2.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | -15% | +10 points |
| Q2 2025 | -16% | +45 points |
| Q1 2025 | -8.9% | +44 points |
| Q4 2024 | -6.5% | +1 points |
AAOI's operating margin was −0.5% last quarter, up 15 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the top of its range since 2019.
ERIC Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $6B | +5.8% |
| Q2 2026 | $5.3B | -4.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $5.1B | -0.9% |
| Q4 2025 | $6.8B | -9.2% |
| Q3 2025 | $5.7B | -5.9% |
| Q2 2025 | $5.5B | -7% |
| Q1 2025 | $5.2B | -6.7% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.5B | +10% |
ERIC's revenue is recovering but still below its 2022 peak: $6B last quarter, up 5.8% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 15% | +1.7 points |
| Q2 2026 | 11% | -1.2 points |
| Q1 2026 | 11% | -0.5 points |
| Q4 2025 | 17% | +3.5 points |
| Q3 2025 | 13% | +1.3 points |
| Q2 2025 | 12% | +7 points |
| Q1 2025 | 11% | +6.9 points |
| Q4 2024 | 14% | +3.3 points |
ERIC has the edge over AAOI on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
AAOI Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$369.9M | -$291.2M |
| Q2 2026 | -$265.3M | -$174.4M |
| Q1 2026 | -$143.6M | -$64.3M |
| Q4 2025 | -$104.6M | -$51.6M |
| Q3 2025 | -$78.7M | -$58M |
| Q2 2025 | -$91M | -$86M |
| Q1 2025 | -$79.3M | -$45.1M |
| Q4 2024 | -$53M | -$48.4M |
AAOI has burned cash in almost every quarter: −$883M over the past year, against −$302M the year before.
ERIC Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $535.9M | -27% |
| Q2 2026 | $128.9M | -64% |
| Q1 2026 | $706.5M | +107% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.5B | -17% |
| Q3 2025 | $729.6M | -45% |
| Q2 2025 | $354.2M | -59% |
| Q1 2025 | $342M | -29% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.8B | +38% |
ERIC has the edge over AAOI on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
AAOI Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +7.7% | +6.3M shares |
| 1 year | +39% | +24.5M shares |
| 3 years | +168% | +55.1M shares |
| 5 years | +224% | +60.7M shares |
| Available history | +340% | +67.9M shares |
AAOI has 88M diluted shares, up 39% from a year ago.
ERIC Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -1.3% | -44M shares |
| 1 year | -1.9% | -64M shares |
| 3 years | -1.6% | -52M shares |
| 5 years | -1.7% | -55M shares |
| Available history | -1.4% | -48M shares |
ERIC has the edge over AAOI on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $454.9M |
| Q2 2026 | $339.8M |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | — |
ERIC spent $795M buying back its own shares over the past year, after none the year before.
AAOI Net Leverage
AAOI's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
ERIC Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.2x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.1x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | 0.0x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | 0.0x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | 0.3x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | -0.1x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | 0.1x | Very low |
ERIC has more cash than debt.
AAOI Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 35.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 4.8 | Oversold |
AAOI's weekly RSI is 35 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 5 (oversold).
ERIC Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 51.2 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 75.8 | Neutral |
ERIC's weekly RSI is 51 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 76 (neutral).
AAOI PE vs Technology Sector
AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
ERIC PE vs Technology Sector
| Metric | ERIC | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 18x | 28x | 34% below |
| PE % | 64 | 35 | 29 pts above |
ERIC is trading at 18x earnings, a 34% discount to the Technology sector's median of 28x, though its earnings don't support one.
AAOI Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $80.2 | 34% below |
| 20 week MA | $100.6 | 47% below |
| 50 week MA | $100.3 | 47% below |
| 100 week MA | $62.3 | 15% below |
| 200 week MA | $36.9 | 43% above |
AAOI has fallen below most of its moving averages, though it's still 43% above its 200-week average.
ERIC Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $10.2 | 4% above |
| 20 week MA | $10.2 | 4% above |
| 50 week MA | $10.8 | 1.4% below |
| 100 week MA | $9.51 | 12% above |
| 200 week MA | $7.71 | 38% above |
ERIC has the edge over AAOI on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
AAOI Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $11.5 | $8.77 | -24% |
| 2021 | $8.77 | $5.64 | -36% |
| 2022 | $5.64 | $1.95 | -65% |
| 2023 | $1.95 | $19.3 | +891% |
| 2024 | $19.3 | $37.7 | +95% |
| 2025 | $37.7 | $37.2 | -1.5% |
| 2026 YTD | $37.2 | $52.9 | +42% |
AAOI has the edge over ERIC on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
ERIC Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $8.86 | $11.8 | +33% |
| 2021 | $11.8 | $10.8 | -8.4% |
| 2022 | $10.8 | $5.89 | -45% |
| 2023 | $5.89 | $6.30 | +7% |
| 2024 | $6.30 | $8.10 | +29% |
| 2025 | $8.10 | $9.68 | +20% |
| 2026 YTD | $9.68 | $10.6 | +9.6% |
ERIC has finished higher in four of the last six years. It's up 9.6% so far in 2026.