AAOI
Applied Optoelectronics, Inc.
AAOI offers stronger modeled upside, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
DBX
Dropbox, Inc.
DBX has the edge over AAOI overall, supported by lower modeled downside and stronger fundamentals.
AAOI Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Under pressure | |
| Weak | |
| Unavailable |
AAOI's revenue is currently strong, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
DBX Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Stable |
DBX's profitability and cash flow are currently strong, and its revenue and balance sheet are stable.
AAOI PE Valuation
AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year. If it returns to profit as analysts expect, today's price would be 18x next year's earnings.
DBX PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 10x | $33.51 | — |
| Cheap | 15x | $27.58 | -18% |
| Fair | 18x | $34.00 | +1.5% |
| Current | 18x | $33.51 | — |
| Expensive | 25x | $45.96 | +37% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
DBX's PE is in its fair range at 18x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 10x next year's earnings, in its cheap range.
AAOI Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Returning to profit | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
AAOI has the edge over DBX on the outlook, with more favorable revenue expectations.
DBX Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Growth | |
| Stable | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect DBX's earnings to grow and its profitability to improve, with its revenue holding steady.
AAOI Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $2.98 | — |
| Q3 2026 | -$0.42 | +$3.02 |
| Q2 2026 | -$0.77 | +$2.81 |
| Q1 2026 | -$0.65 | +$3.43 |
| Q4 2025 | -$0.64 | +$3.86 |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.44 | -$1.41 |
| Q2 2025 | -$3.58 | -$1.70 |
| Q1 2025 | -$4.08 | -$2.29 |
| Q4 2024 | -$4.50 | -$2.75 |
AAOI is still losing money, but far less than before: $0.42 per share over the past year, against $4.50 at its worst in late 2024.
DBX Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $3.28 | +77% |
| Q3 2026 | $1.85 | +5.1% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.80 | +10% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.83 | +20% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.86 | +33% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.76 | +2.3% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.63 | -4.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.52 | +1.3% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.40 | +6.9% |
DBX has the edge over AAOI on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
AAOI Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $269.9M | +127% |
| Q2 2026 | $191.9M | +86% |
| Q1 2026 | $151.1M | +51% |
| Q4 2025 | $134.3M | +34% |
| Q3 2025 | $118.6M | +82% |
| Q2 2025 | $103M | +138% |
| Q1 2025 | $99.9M | +146% |
| Q4 2024 | $100.3M | +66% |
AAOI has the edge over DBX on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5% | +15 points |
| Q2 2026 | -13% | +2.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | -8.6% | +0.3 points |
| Q4 2025 | -8.6% | -2.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | -15% | +10 points |
| Q2 2025 | -16% | +45 points |
| Q1 2025 | -8.9% | +44 points |
| Q4 2024 | -6.5% | +1 points |
AAOI's operating margin was −0.5% last quarter, up 15 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the top of its range since 2019.
DBX Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $637.3M | +0.5% |
| Q2 2026 | $631.5M | +0.9% |
| Q1 2026 | $629.5M | +0.8% |
| Q4 2025 | $636.2M | -1.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $634.4M | -0.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $625.7M | -1.4% |
| Q1 2025 | $624.7M | -1% |
| Q4 2024 | $643.6M | +1.4% |
DBX's revenue grew through 2023 and has held roughly level since: $637M last quarter, about level with the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 27% | -0.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 26% | -0.8 points |
| Q1 2026 | 27% | -2 points |
| Q4 2025 | 26% | +12 points |
| Q3 2025 | 28% | +7.5 points |
| Q2 2025 | 27% | +6.9 points |
| Q1 2025 | 29% | +6.7 points |
| Q4 2024 | 14% | -28 points |
DBX has the edge over AAOI on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
AAOI Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$369.9M | -$291.2M |
| Q2 2026 | -$265.3M | -$174.4M |
| Q1 2026 | -$143.6M | -$64.3M |
| Q4 2025 | -$104.6M | -$51.6M |
| Q3 2025 | -$78.7M | -$58M |
| Q2 2025 | -$91M | -$86M |
| Q1 2025 | -$79.3M | -$45.1M |
| Q4 2024 | -$53M | -$48.4M |
AAOI has burned cash in almost every quarter: −$883M over the past year, against −$302M the year before.
DBX Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $251.8M | -14% |
| Q2 2026 | $235.2M | -9% |
| Q1 2026 | $203.3M | +32% |
| Q4 2025 | $224.9M | +6.8% |
| Q3 2025 | $293.7M | +8.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $258.5M | +15% |
| Q1 2025 | $153.7M | -7.6% |
| Q4 2024 | $210.5M | +11% |
DBX has the edge over AAOI on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
AAOI Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +7.7% | +6.3M shares |
| 1 year | +39% | +24.5M shares |
| 3 years | +168% | +55.1M shares |
| 5 years | +224% | +60.7M shares |
| Available history | +340% | +67.9M shares |
AAOI has 88M diluted shares, up 39% from a year ago.
DBX Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.7% | -1.7M shares |
| 1 year | -15% | -40M shares |
| 3 years | -35% | -121M shares |
| 5 years | -43% | -173M shares |
| Available history | -45% | -187M shares |
DBX has the edge over AAOI on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $150.2M |
| Q2 2026 | $330.3M |
| Q1 2026 | $366.8M |
| Q4 2025 | $415M |
| Q3 2025 | $389.8M |
| Q2 2025 | $410M |
| Q1 2025 | $499.1M |
| Q4 2024 | $353.3M |
DBX spent $1.3B buying back its own shares over the past year, down 24% from the year before.
AAOI Net Leverage
AAOI's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
DBX Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 1.8x | Healthy |
| Q2 2026 | 1.9x | Healthy |
| Q1 2026 | 1.7x | Healthy |
| Q4 2025 | 0.7x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | 0.3x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 0.0x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | -0.6x | Net Cash |
DBX's net debt is about 1.8 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), up from less than a year a year ago.
AAOI Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 35.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 4.8 | Oversold |
AAOI's weekly RSI is 35 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 5 (oversold).
DBX Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 52.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 53.7 | Neutral |
DBX's weekly RSI is 53 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 54 (neutral).
AAOI PE vs Technology Sector
AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
DBX PE vs Technology Sector
| Metric | DBX | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 18x | 28x | 35% below |
| PE % | 44 | 35 | 9 pts above |
DBX is trading at 18x earnings, a 35% discount to the Technology sector's median of 28x.
AAOI Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $80.2 | 34% below |
| 20 week MA | $100.6 | 47% below |
| 50 week MA | $100.3 | 47% below |
| 100 week MA | $62.3 | 15% below |
| 200 week MA | $36.9 | 43% above |
AAOI has fallen below most of its moving averages, though it's still 43% above its 200-week average.
DBX Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $34.8 | 3.7% below |
| 20 week MA | $33.7 | 0.7% below |
| 50 week MA | $29.1 | 15% above |
| 100 week MA | $29.0 | 16% above |
| 200 week MA | $27.1 | 24% above |
DBX has the edge over AAOI on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
AAOI Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $11.5 | $8.77 | -24% |
| 2021 | $8.77 | $5.64 | -36% |
| 2022 | $5.64 | $1.95 | -65% |
| 2023 | $1.95 | $19.3 | +891% |
| 2024 | $19.3 | $37.7 | +95% |
| 2025 | $37.7 | $37.2 | -1.5% |
| 2026 YTD | $37.2 | $52.9 | +42% |
AAOI has the edge over DBX on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
DBX Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $17.7 | $24.7 | +39% |
| 2021 | $24.7 | $25.0 | +1.3% |
| 2022 | $25.0 | $22.5 | -10% |
| 2023 | $22.5 | $29.5 | +31% |
| 2024 | $29.5 | $30.5 | +3.5% |
| 2025 | $30.5 | $28.0 | -8.3% |
| 2026 YTD | $28.0 | $33.5 | +20% |
DBX has finished higher in four of the last six years. It's up 20% so far in 2026.